With five races to go, Marc Marquez leads Andrea Dovizioso in the MotoGP championship by 300 points to 202, a difference of 98 points. He is within a couple of points of wrapping up the title, and looks nearly certain to do so at either Buriram in Thailand or Motegi in Japan.
What does Marquez need to do to wrap up the title in Thailand? The Repsol Honda rider will become champion if he leads Andrea Dovizioso by 100 points after the Thai Grand Prix in Buriram. Though Dovizioso could still theoretically tie with Marquez for points, Marquez would win the championship in the case of a tie, as he currently has 8 victories this season, and Dovizioso only has 2 wins with 5 races left including Thailand.
There are two things which Marquez has to do to ensure he takes the title in Thailand. First, he needs to finish ahead of Dovizioso. And secondly, he needs to score 2 more points than Dovizioso.
If Marquez finishes in the top four, and ahead of Dovizioso, he will become champion.
If Marquez finishes between fifth and fourteenth, he has to finish two places ahead of Dovizioso to become champion.
If Marquez finishes fifteenth (1 point) or lower, it won't matter where Dovizioso finishes, he will not have enough points to wrap up the title in Thailand.
Most of these scenarios are entirely hypothetical. In 2019, Marc Marquez has either won or finished second, barring a single crash in Austin. It seems unlikely Marquez will finish off the podium, and if he does get on the rostrum, then he just has to make sure he is ahead of Dovizioso.
Last year, Marquez won the race ahead of Dovizioso, by a margin of just 0.115 in a thrilling battle. The odds of that intense battle being repeated are good.