What Marc Marquez Needs To Win The Title In Buriram

With five races to go, Marc Marquez leads Andrea Dovizioso in the MotoGP championship by 300 points to 202, a difference of 98 points. He is within a couple of points of wrapping up the title, and looks nearly certain to do so at either Buriram in Thailand or Motegi in Japan.

What does Marquez need to do to wrap up the title in Thailand? The Repsol Honda rider will become champion if he leads Andrea Dovizioso by 100 points after the Thai Grand Prix in Buriram. Though Dovizioso could still theoretically tie with Marquez for points, Marquez would win the championship in the case of a tie, as he currently has 8 victories this season, and Dovizioso only has 2 wins with 5 races left including Thailand.

There are two things which Marquez has to do to ensure he takes the title in Thailand. First, he needs to finish ahead of Dovizioso. And secondly, he needs to score 2 more points than Dovizioso.

If Marquez finishes in the top four, and ahead of Dovizioso, he will become champion.

If Marquez finishes between fifth and fourteenth, he has to finish two places ahead of Dovizioso to become champion.

If Marquez finishes fifteenth (1 point) or lower, it won't matter where Dovizioso finishes, he will not have enough points to wrap up the title in Thailand.

Most of these scenarios are entirely hypothetical. In 2019, Marc Marquez has either won or finished second, barring a single crash in Austin. It seems unlikely Marquez will finish off the podium, and if he does get on the rostrum, then he just has to make sure he is ahead of Dovizioso.

Last year, Marquez won the race ahead of Dovizioso, by a margin of just 0.115 in a thrilling battle. The odds of that intense battle being repeated are good.

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Comments

We knew the fat lady was singing in Spanish so long ago one may take little notice in where.

So down the order, there is interest is the battle for 3rd, reaching all the way back to 7th. What do you think will go on there? 5 races left, at least 100 points on the table for these guys to grab. The Yamaha is on a big upswing. Petrucci is dropping like a stone. Can/will Rins and Suzuki gather it back up to finish strong and consistent? Which Yamaha rider will finish on top? Will Factory bike development leave Quarty's bike behind? Top Yamaha - finish in 3rd, or 4th?

Dovi is likely to finish 2nd. Rins finishes the calendar very strong, or at least certainly did last year. Vinales did as well. Given that Quartararo is down a good 28 points on Rins in 3rd, AND that the Factory Yamaha has a heap of good updates coming now, I see him at a disadvantage for 3rd. Rossi? Man, so hard to call. Maverick is about to use the more powerful pipe and carbon fiber swingarm, and a bit more is coming for both he and Vale. Guessing we will see a return to form for Rins, and Maverick giving him a good go for 3rd.
GUESS? Maverick 3rd, Rins 4th, Rossi 5th, Quartararo 6th, Petrucci 7th
What's yours?

NOW
2 Andrea DOVIZIOSO Ducati 202 (-98 to Marc, sizeable gap to 3rd)

3 Alex RINS Suzuki 156 (mixed bag via inconsistency?)
4 Danilo PETRUCCI Ducati 155 (dropping)
5 Maverick VINALES Yamaha 147 (Ascending, somewhat mixed results)
6 Valentino ROSSI Yamaha 137 (mixed and ascending)
7 Fabio QUARTARARO Yamaha 123 (Ascending lots)

What bike or rider has advantage at these tracks (aside from Marquez)?
Quick 2018 results incl Zarco for Quarty...

Thailand - Dovi 2, Maverick 3, Rossi 4, Zarco 5, Rins 6 (Yamaha/Suzuki track possibly? Dovi happy there)

Japan - Rins 3, Rossi 4, Zarco 6, Maverick 7, Dovi 18 (Not great for Ducati in general, better for the others)

Australia - (Rider balls!) Maverick 1, Suzuki/Iannone 2, Dovi 3, Rins 5, Rossi 6 (any of these 5 riders could have their day here)

Malaysia - Rins 2, Zarco 3, Maverick 4, Dovi 6, Rossi 18 (Suzuki/Yamaha adv)

Valencia - Dovi 1, Rins 2, Duc/Pirro 4, Zarco 7, Rossi 13, Maverick dnf (Ducati adv)

Look at how well Rins finished the calendar last year. Perhaps we are in for a repeat of form. Dovisioso too finishes well. The Yamaha though is CLEARLY a better bike now than a yr ago. Looking forward to watching this unfold.

Btw, doing prev year hindsight and pondering the significance of 2019... 2017 = best season in a VERY long time. Right?! Bravo.

This is a goodie when you know where and how to look. What are you noticing w interest?

Total votes: 15

I reckon Rossi will be 3rd place Yamaha rider.

Total votes: 17