Crunching The Numbers: Is Bagnaia Right That Gaps In MotoGP Used To Be Bigger? And Why?

By David Emmett | Wed, 31/05/2023 - 22:14

Shortly after the French Grand Prix at Le Mans, controversy erupted surrounding statements Pecco Bagnaia had made during his media debrief on Sunday evening. Bagnaia had crashed out of the race on lap 5 after a collision between himself and Maverick Viñales.

Though the crash had been a racing incident, both riders conceded, Bagnaia raised a recurring theme in the 2023 MotoGP season, especially since the introduction of sprint races on the Saturday of a grand prix. With the field so close together, and overtaking so difficult, it was becoming ever more imperative to be aggressive at the start of the race, and try to pass as many other riders as possible before your front tire pressure became too high to risk a pass.

"A rider behind you that doesn't have the potential is looking to pass six riders in one lap," Bagnaia told the Italian media, as seen in a video on MotoGP.com. "And it doesn't work like this. Because we're all on the limit, looking for the maximum. And if I'm braking on the limit, especially in the first part of the race, it's wrong to try to brake further than this limit. If you look, the incidents are mainly in the first part of the race, because there's a lot of turmoil."

Bagnaia said this was becoming dangerous. "We should be trying to think about how to improve this situation. Because it's not safe like this. But it's like this at the moment."

The factory Ducati rider laid the blame for the situation on just how close the racing currently is. "One thing that I think is that everybody can win, from the first bike to the last bike," That was very different to the previous era of MotoGP. "There is no longer a gap of six or seven tenths between the factory and the satellite bikes."

That gap in performance made it easier for the best riders to escape the clutches of the satellite riders behind. "That was useful, honestly, because the Four Aliens happened because they were the strongest riders, but they also had factory bikes," Bagnaia pointed out. "Meanwhile, the others were further behind because they didn't have the potential, but they also didn't have the technical level. Now the level is extreme."

Testing the hypothesis

It was this argument that kicked off the controversy in the media and online. In part, perhaps, because of the four-week break between Le Mans and Mugello. But also because he seemed to be demanding that factory bikes regain that advantage they once had.

Before we address that, however, we should check to see whether Bagnaia is right. Did the factory bikes really have that much of a gap over the satellite riders in the previous era? The best way to test that is to go back and actually look at the data.

As Bagnaia referred to the MotoGP Aliens, or "Fantastic Four", we have to assume he meant the heyday of Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo, Casey Stoner, and Dani Pedrosa. So let's compare the gaps between the riders in 2008 and 2022/2023.

The reason for picking 2008 is fairly simple: it was the year when all four Aliens had entered MotoGP, though it was Jorge Lorenzo's first season in the class. The Ducati was still competitive, though not quite as good as the year before, when Casey Stoner won a championship. Valentino Rossi was at the height of his powers and had just switched to Bridgestone tires. The 2008 Honda was a lot more competitive than the bike had been in 2007.

Crunching the numbers

I have mostly used 2022 for the sake of comparison, as that was the last full season. Given the diversity of tracks – Brno, Donington Park, Estoril, Indianapolis, Laguna Seca, and Shanghai have disappeared from the calendar, Aragon, Austin, Buriram, Mandalika, Portimão, Red Bull Ring, Silverstone, and Termas de Rio Hondo have been added – averaging over a full season is better than the five rounds held so far in 2023.

I have kept comparisons with 2023 in, however, though in comparing qualifying times, I have omitted Argentina, which was a wet qualifying.

For the qualifying comparisons, I have also used the 10 closest results, to exclude outliers due to weather or other factors. For the race comparisons, I have used the full results, 18 races in 2008 vs 20 in 2022 (and 5 in 2023).

As Bagnaia referenced the "Fantastic Four", I have taken 5th place in both race and qualifying comparisons. For the race, I have added the gap to 10th, and for qualifying the gap to 12th – basically the last spot in Q2, as there was still a single qualifying session in 2008.

Having said all that, how much closer has the field become from 2008 to 2022? Here's the qualifying comparison:

2023
MotoGP
Le Mans, France
Aprilia
Ducati
Honda
KTM
Yamaha
Francesco Bagnaia
CormacGP
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Comments

RHD,s......if they are not able to ban them, limit their use other than at the start for say the first 5 laps(to pick a number). Or only in designated zones. That series with four big fat tyre`s use`s something like that for it`s DRS free pass system. With regards to 08, didn`t we still have a tyre war then along with Saturday night specials. Riders would be presented with tyre they had never seen and race them, now its taking 5 years to make something new. Perhaps Dorna needs to say Ok next year we WILL have new spec front tyres if no one wants to test them, their loss. Suck it up sunshine.   Thanks  beamer12.     P.S.if #93 had been involved in either of the major incident`s in France there would have been call to execute him i`m sure.

 

 

 

Thought provoking article, thank you. Given that this is arguably the first era where every MotoGP race has a grid full of highly skilled competitive riders on very competitive bikes I suspect that this is the real cause of the accidents and perceived lack of overtaking. Realistically if the current crop of MotoGP riders all raced each other on bog standard Suzuki GSX-1000's for 20 laps or so it would probably end up much like a MotoGP race with their elbows out and agressive argy-bargy in the first few laps gaining position and then tyre preservation etc later on. It's easy to use the technologies as a scapegoat, but at the end of the day they've only enabled the bikes to be fast and competitive. Perhaps the real issue is they just can't go any faster and no one has that advantage any more.  

 

'Satellite' wins and podiums
YEAR WINS PODIUMS (2nd & 3rd)
2008  0  5
2022  4  15
2023  3  7

I know it's "apples and pears" because of the relationship between factories and their satellite teams now, but Bagnaia isn't entirely wrong about the rise of the Satellites. 

David is my recollection of the satellite bikes and teams being stronger or at least more competitive with the factory teams in the two-stroke era correct?

Each era has a few exceptional riders and for some reason I think of absolute factory dominance as a thing with the 4-stroke era, particulary post GFC. Or perhaps its just that I'm old and miss the smell and scream of the two-strokes hitting the powerband. Selective memory is a wonderful thing LOL

Not sure about that.

Aprillia was famous for supplying differing levels of 250 support. In 500 there was the Honda V-twin that was a bit of a grid filler as well.

More engine development was possible within the team for the 2S engines, so theoretically a satellite team could happen on a good idea or setup, but in practice they often didn't have the budget or time to chase marginal gains, when they were flat-out just to keep the bikes running.

And if they ever did have a good idea, the factory would just stroll down the pit lane and help themselves!

Has anyone floated the idea  of spreading out the grid? Either by increasing the distance between the rows or having 2 bikes per row. This will to a degree reduce the immense bunching for the first few corners, if not for a couple of laps. Of course, this would then make qualifying even more important.

Levelling up worked then. We didn’t like stragglers diminishing the spectacle and now the riders are worried about competition. Why are they racers?

The front tire is a key issue and I agree with Beamer that Donna should tell Michelin to bring out a tyre NOW. If it causes chaos for a few rounds that might be fun to watch and if it leads to the procession of the 2nd half of the race being eliminated the benefit would be worth it. Just do it.

Excellent piece, so basically Pecco was right and Hervé rather blustered in (I like Hervé btw).

Dorna (and the fans) wanted closer racing now we have it. Everything comes at a cost I suppose. Personally I think the sprint races (I enjoy them) should be full points too, they’re taking double the risks and if you’re in the bottom 50% after a few laps surely you’re disincentivised to fight for 9th and one point?  

I think this article proves what I've always been saying : there have never been any aliens, only superior motorcycles . sometimes a single rider stands out (Rossi at the beginning of the new 4-strokes era, and obviously Stoner and Marquez). But it was never 4 riders "clearly better than the rest". They were the lucky ones to be on a factory bike. If for example Bautista had gone to Yamaha and Lorenzo to Suzuki, Lorenzo probably wouldn't have won 3 titles and maybe Bautista would have been a MotoGP champion.

Translate this to the last years and finaly now that everyone has factory material and almost al bikes are good (just the jap's lagging behind a bit), they are all capable of getting on the podium. Some say this is down to the uch bigger talent-pool these days but I don't think so. The talent pool has always been big enough, it's just that now now everyone get's a fair chance to prove his worth, not having to fight with inferial material.

And so I come to the point this article is trying to make. to me it comes down to a single point : the bikes are too good like Bagnaia already said about his bike. They all can extract the very last % of performance. We need to get back to bikes that simply are not perfect, bikes where it is easy to make a mistake, because mistakes create passing-opportunities, and those with just a tiny bit more talent (not alien-like more) can exploit their tiny bit and make the difference.

If I were Honda or Yamaha, I'd colaborate with my fellow country brand and make it simple : either aero is banned or very very VERY limited , and RHD are banned or we both leave. 

 

 

I take your point but that would be massively cheeky of Honda - considering they opposed the levelling up for years as they had the technical advantage and the biggest budget. Of course Audi getting behind Ducati turned the tables.

But I agree some of the developments seem eccentric in that they'll never have a road use. You can make the argument that improved traction control and engine management can improve a road bike - more safety and better fuel use, but ride height devices and wings? No use on the road there (not on my commute anyway). So personally I think no great loss - dump them and lets give a bit back to the riders. These will still be great bikes and the riders will still be the best.

The differences are there but areas where that can make a difference to performance have reduced in scope or vanished.

I don't think anybody is complaining about close racing. I think everybody wants close racing. I think what they don't want is overtaking to be too difficult if a rider has better pace. I think it's an issue which changes from track to track.

Imagine a race where the grid is given a number at random which represents the number of tenths off ' optimal pace'...with one condition...a rider must have >=0.1s advantage to make any pass. There would be passing, if the race was long enough the field would organise itself according to pace. 22nd on the grid and given +0.2s at the start ? Only the number of laps would stop that rider finishing 2nd. What happens if a rider needs >=0.2s to make any pass ? It's unlikely but possible that there is no overtaking and the fastest rider finishes last, slowest wins. More likely that the race would split into groups of riders all unable to pass the rider ahead, each group being led by a rider slower than those in the group. The second scenario encourages all riders to take huge risks in the lap 1 gaggle. The riders behind are now more likely to remain behind, unable to pass. Slower riders can get up the field and stay up. Faster riders can avoid falling into that trap. Also, as David says, not being 'in' any pack is great news for front tyre pressure.

Well, if we presume all the bikes are more or less equal and if we presume all riders are now capable of getting the best from their bike, then perhaps a change in protocol will determine if there are any true aliens. On Mondays, the riders put there names into a hat and each team director then randomly pulls a name to be their rider for that race. Get rid of sprint races and give time back to testing. Repeat every two weeks. My money would be on Fabio winning and Mickey Mouse retiring.

But MotoGP is much more convoluted and nuanced than just the riders and the bikes. There's a whole lot more going on.

I disagree that there were never any Aliens (though I sympathise with your point).

Firstly, compare riders with the others on the same bike. Morbidelli is a very good rider, but he is struggling. Quartararo is capable of putting an inferior bike on the podium.

Secondly, I think there is a kind of differentiation between types of superior riders. I remember Ben Spies saying that when he rode behind Rossi, he could understand what Rossi was doing, but he couldn't copy it. When he rode behind Casey Stoner, he couldn't understand what the Australian was doing.

It's very tempting to think that talented people are in some way simply more lucky. Maybe more or less lucky, some more lucky than others. The idea is even embeded in language. They are gifted after all. In days long gone, to be lucky was to be favoured by the gods, a sign of approval and not simply a matter of chance. Approval was won through the actions of said fortunate people. With gods as with bike manufacturers. 

Michelin used to produce race winning tyres overnight. It’s bullshit they can’t produce a new front tire in less than 4 years. 
 

As to aero and ride height devices. Bring ‘em on. And more! These are supposed to be the pinnacle of motorcycle technology. Not dumbed down for street use. 
 

The riders will figure it out. How else does Binder go from the back to the front the way he does when the flag drops? Or Zarco picking up the pace late in races. 
 

Personally I’d prefer they get rid of the sprint races and focus on Sunday. 

I’ve been enjoying the sprints so much that I’d prefer Dorna have sprints on both Saturday and Sunday, and scrap the existing longer Sunday race. They could use the current Sunday points system for both days Sprint Races (because the reality is they are hard fought races) with Saturdays finishing position being Sundays grid, or something like that to mix things up a bit.

I like the concept of absolutely full on racing from start to finish with no need for the rider to conserve tyres or fuel. Leave the tyre, fuel and engine management to the enduro races and let the MotoGP riders just go do it.

Sprints are good, I agree. I can only take so much practice and qualifying and two days is too much for my attention span. The issue is that the GP part requires a better front tyre to enable the longer battle rather than a relatively spaced out cruise. Dorna, please JFDI.

BTW the TT is now on and Michael Dunlop is doing a 135 average over 37 miles of what looks like the Phillip Island pit road with stone walls and trees. The app is excellent value for many hours of watching.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure we will soon see an accident within the first couple of laps that will either be career ending, or even worse for an unlucky rider🤬 since there doesn’t seem to be  a true interest from the responsible parties (DORNA, FIM, Michelin, Ducati) in solving the issue.