MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season - Results

[RatsMC]

MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition - Indy



Race date is August 30. Betting ends at the start of FP1 on the Friday prior (August 28).



This is round 2 of the current section.



In addition to the instructions below, I would like to ask two things. First, please announce all new predictions. Just stating that it is new will help. Putting it in bold is probably a good idea as it will help people to notice it (including me). Second, please use the prediction number once the prediction has been posted. This will help me to make certain I get your bets in the right place.

**Note: With the new system prediction numbers are sequential for all races meaning that instead of stating from 1 every round they will start from the last prediction number from the previous round.


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The way it works:

Anyone is welcome to play - just post your predictions and bets.

Simply announce your predictions here in this topic. I will add those predictions to list.

Once posted, anyone is welcome to bet for or against those predictions. If a prediction remains unchallenged at the end of the round, it will be removed.


In each round, each player gets 100 points to bet for or against any predictions that have been made. Your odds depend on the bets others have made against your bet. So, if you bet 20 points that Takahashi will win Motegi by 35 seconds and two people bet 15 points against you, your odds are 3:2 meaning you will win 30 points on top of the 20 you bet for a total of 50 points.

I have added a bonus for the number of correct predictions. A bonus of up to 50 points is available and will be awarded based on your accuracy percentage. For example, if you place bets on 5 predictions and win 4 of those, you will receive 80% of that 50 points. This typically will only boost a player one position and isn't likely to radically change the outcome but it does reward more careful betting.



I will post my predictions to clarify how this is done:

New Prediction: Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy

New Prediction: RdP will finish 5th or better

Now, my bets:

#153 - RdP will finish 5th or better – 20 points

You can also combine the two:

New Prediction: Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy- 20 points



Please use the prediction number when you are placing a bet on an existing prediction.


All predictions are tracked here:

http://www.mototheory.com/index.php?opt ... Itemid=203

Bets are recorded here:

http://www.mototheory.com/index.php?opt ... Itemid=205

Round Results are available here (including total points for all rounds):

[url] http://www.mototheory.com/index.php?opt ... Itemid=210[url


There is also a menu along the left that will allow you to navigate around as well.

Very soon, I will have a few more views available.

1. Prediction listed by challenged and unchallenged
2. All round and section scores
3. Player stats such as average odds, accuracy, etc.



I will update this topic regularly with changes.




This is round 2 of 3. The points will be totaled up after this round. The player with the highest total points will receive a fabulous prize to be announced later. The more players we have, the more fabulous the prize.

[RatsMC]

Since Indy is likely to be a turning point in the silly season, I figured this round is likley to have some interesting opportunities for predictions (as well as rumor-mongering and wild speculation).

[Faster1]

,,rollin the dice


2 Hondas on the Podium 20 RTPTS
2 Ducatis 8th or better 20 RTPTS

[RatsMC]

2 Ducatis 8th or better 20 RTPTS

At first I read this and thought,"who would bet against that?" and then I remembered that Stoner is out and that a top 4 ducati cannot be assumed.

[RatsMC]

Unchallenged Predictions - -- ---
167 Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy Clarification: An announcement will not be made before or by the following monday after the race (Aug. 31)
168 RdP will finish 5th or better
169 2 Hondas on the Podium
170 2 Ducatis 8th or better


Just an FYI, the clarification on the Lorenzo prediction (#167) is visible when you are viewing the predictions if you click ont he "notes" link next to the prediction.

[Faster1]

2 Ducatis 8th or better 20 RTPTS

At first I read this and thought,"who would bet against that?" and then I remembered that Stoner is out and that a top 4 ducati cannot be assumed.

,, right,, Hayden is a given, but Mika Torpedo needs to be better than The Repsol twins, The disfunctional Fiat family, Steady Eddie (Colin), New legs Caprix, Nick the (sometimes) quick, The dual personalities (Sometimes fast, sometimes not) of DePunet and Melandri,, and last but not least, the win it or bin it cuz I need a job,,, Toni da Tiger.
That's 11 probable top eight contenders,, even money to Kallio for me.

[RatsMC]

Right. With Suzuki back in the game, the mid-pack is probably about the best it has ever been. It is actually pretty remarkable that in many races we have a too-close-to-call battle for the lead as well as for 5th place. To bad there is usually just over 20 seconds between first and 5th.

[ReviveTheWhigs]

All right, I say nicky wins the battle for 5th place.

20 points for Hayden top 5 (GO NICKY!!!)

I really want to bet Nicky for a podium, but that would be like betting one of the big 3 crash out. Soooo...

10 points for either Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race.

I hope Vermeulen's Brno test times were an indication of things to come.

[Kropotkin]

Not betting, but here's some silly season speculation to be used for possible bets. The Grand Prix Commission is due to meet at Indy, and the MSMA is due to present a detailed counterproposal to Dorna's 1000cc production engine Moto1 bikes. That counterproposal is believed to be leasing just engines for much less than leasing a whole bike. Problem is, HRC is against the idea. So, what will the MSMA's counterproposal be? Will it be engine leasing? Will it be the promise of more bikes? Or will they accept the 1000cc production engine idea?

Choose your personal favorite based on the brilliance/idiocy of the MSMA and take a shot at a prediction

[CLX]

From those three, I'd discard leasing more bikes and put my pennies on the 1000cc proposal.

Honda wanted 990cc, they got it.
Honda wanted 800cc, they got it.
Honda wanted Moto2 with productuion based 600cc engines, they got it.
Honda don't want to lease engines, they'll get it.
Simply leasing bikes might result in more Ducati/Gibernau/Onde 2000 and/or Takahashi/Scot/Honda failures which would be useless.

So it leaves us with the 1000cc engines. :p

[RatsMC]

Great stuff K! I hadn't even been thinking down that path sicne last week having been distracted by Lorenzo shenanigans

CLX, I'll take you up on your 1000cc proposal. I believe HRC has lost some of the influence they once had and we will see an engine lease deal.

I'd be willing to put 20 points on it.

[Kropotkin]

CLX, I'll take you up on your 1000cc proposal. I believe HRC has lost some of the influence they once had and we will see an engine lease deal.

One thing to remember, what is due to happen is that the MSMA will present the proposal, which the Grand Prix Commission will discuss. It is unlikely that a decision will be taken, but a press release should be issued. And otherwise, I'll just badger Herve Poncharal into telling me what went on

[RatsMC]

One thing to remember, what is due to happen is that the MSMA will present the proposal, which the Grand Prix Commission will discuss. It is unlikely that a decision will be taken, but a press release should be issued.

That's no fun.

And otherwise, I'll just badger Herve Poncharal into telling me what went on

That is more fun though


So CLX, let make it that a recommendation or suggestion will come out of this and drop it to 10 points since it is a bet we both might lose?

Krop, any suggestions on how you might word a prediction that could be found true or false by say, the Tuesday following the race?

[CLX]

Leasing engines does sound as the most reasonable approach...
I'll put 20 against it just for the fun.
And 80 on Hayden 4th or better.

[clarkjw]

The switch to 800cc was about big factory control, not safety. The easiest & cheapest way to reduce top speed is with a speed limit, fuel restrictions, and weight minimums. If capacity were unlimited then it would be a real prototype series and factories would be banging down the door. Right now, MotoGP is a farce.

[RatsMC]

The switch to 800cc was about big factory control, not safety. The easiest & cheapest way to reduce top speed is with a speed limit, fuel restrictions, and weight minimums. If capacity were unlimited then it would be a real prototype series and factories would be banging down the door. Right now, MotoGP is a farce.

I am struggling to understand what that has to do with the Prediction Contest.

[chakraist]

20 against 167
20 against 169
20 for engine leasing
40 against Hayden top 4/5

With the Hayden proposal, I'm not sure if CLX's prediction is a separate one to the top 5 one, but either way, 40 against!

[Kropotkin]

Krop, any suggestions on how you might word a prediction that could be found true or false by say, the Tuesday following the race?

Hmm. Something like, "The minutes of the Grand Prix Commission will show that the proposal put forward by the MSMA will be to lease engines separately, for teams to build chassis around".

And as I don't have a stake in this excellent contest (too risky, the pedestal would mysteriously dematerialize), I shall be the judge of how that prediction worked out. Which I shall post on Monday.

[RatsMC]

Thanks Krop. for the title I put " MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal" in the details I used your quote exactly.

Your judging would be appreciated.

20 points for Hayden top 5 (GO NICKY!!!)

And 80 on Hayden 4th or better.

With the Hayden proposal, I'm not sure if CLX's prediction is a separate one to the top 5 one, but either way, 40 against!

RTW and CLX,

Can we combine these? I like the bravery of 4th or better as it might get more challengers but top 5 might make more sense.

Leaving them separate will split the bets against so neither of you will have a decent payout.

[ReviveTheWhigs]

RTW and CLX,

Can we combine these? I like the bravery of 4th or better as it might get more challengers but top 5 might make more sense.

Leaving them separate will split the bets against so neither of you will have a decent payout.

Yep, no problem - just remove my bet. I prefer the "4th or better" bet anyway - a good compromise between a top 5 and a podium. Also:

GO NICKY!!!

[RatsMC]

Thanks!

Unchallenged Predictions - -- ---
168 RdP will finish 5th or better
170 2 Ducatis 8th or better
172 Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race

Challenged Predictions
167 Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy --------Odds For: 2.0 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.0 to 1
169 2 Hondas on the Podium --------Odds For: 2.0 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.0 to 1
171 Hayden will finish 4th or better --------Odds For: 1.4 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.8 to 1
173 MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal --------Odds For: 1.5 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.0 to 1

[Faster1]

10 RTPTS Against 168

That too much to expect from RDP,,, You have the big 3 plus two angry Americans plus a possessed win-it or bin-it Elias that won't let that happen,, unless it rains.

[Rusty Bucket USA]

10 RTPTS Against 168
That too much to expect from RDP,,, You have the big 3 plus two angry Americans plus a possessed win-it or bin-it Elias that won't let that happen...

Agree with that... add 20 RPts to the AGAINST ledger, please.

Also, I'll add 20 RPts FOR #171, Hayden rocks the house.

[KTM]

Prediction :Elias on podium
For 100 points

Hope I did this correctly???

[RatsMC]

10 RTPTS Against 168

That too much to expect from RDP,,, You have the big 3 plus two angry Americans plus a possessed win-it or bin-it Elias that won't let that happen,, unless it rains.

I actually don't really think there is any chance of this happening myself but I am going to keep voting for the guy.

Prediction :Elias on podium
For 100 points

Hope I did this correctly???

Yep. That's correct. Crazy but correct

Welcome BTW.

Man, it is so much easier to add a new player with the new system. I just add the name and hit submit. All done.

Before I had to insert columns into the spreadsheet and then correct all of the cell references in the formulas all down the page - each time had the opportunity to make a mistake that would screw up the calculations for every round.