MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans 2010 (Spoilers, all classes)

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Rusty Bucket USA
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

I have hundreds of captured photos specifically dedicated to looking at lean angles...
This one came up on my screensaver today, and I thought it would fit in the discussion:

Image
(dedicated Rossi fans will not need any help identifying this picture... ;) )
Even though it's 990 era, we can see he had the thing cranked over pretty far, and that is about average for him being "off the bike".
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by motomania »

Another great discussion on this forum.
Jonzie wrote:. . . . . He either cannot feel the limit during the race or he can feel it but he's to impatient to get in the front or a combination of the 2.
I'm with Jonzie on this, it's the reason that I listed Stoner as DOTM in the MOTM - Le Mans thread. I think that he's being too impatient and pushing a bit too hard early in the going. As for the "it's because I'm following slower guys", BS. If that were true then why isn't he falling on his butt consistently during practice and qualifying? He's behind more slow guys then over races. He's always been known for being a quick starter. I think that the characteristics of the 'Stones have changed a bit and that is also a bit of a factor. Of course, we can't discount the fact that they've also changed the front/rear balance a bit to get some grip back on the rear which could also contribute to the loss of grip on the front. I think a lot of it comes down to him, you don't win the race in the first few laps but you can lose it then.
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Oscar »

I don't think that this was the actual crash moment ( thanks, Soup) - we saw it from behind (almost certainly video from Nicky's bike) and above - it looks just a little too upright to me, but Stoner's lack of contact with the bike as the back started to step out was as close to identical as doesn't matter:

Image

Even if if ISN't the actual 'start of the end' shot, that bike has not been at all well-behaved. I think he was more cranked over than that and trying to spin up the rear to avoid the probable highside but with NO weight on the rear - as you can see - it just broke traction and hi, ho, away we go.
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plasmatron
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by plasmatron »

Richo wrote:Interesting article, the last answer Nicky gives here does give some credence to Casy's comment about the front not hooking up as well when he is held up by slower riders.
And then the last seven-eight laps, when I started braking harder, trying to make up time on the brakes, brakes, and the harder I was braking, actually the better it was on a few corners, on corner entry. I've did all weekend with full load, because I've seen the first two races, so hard for me in the beginning. I've set my bike up to go with full load.
But doesn't give much credence to the other half of Stoner's statement from the post race interview where he said that Hayden isn't crashing out every second race because he's not pushing as hard or riding as fast. Seems a little disingenuous to say riding slow makes the front go *and* riding fast makes the front go in the same interview. Maybe I misunderstood him?

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jihem
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by jihem »

Casey Stoner is a rider with an acute sense on how to ride his bike fast even when all parameters aren't right. He knows he doesn't have to do 20 laps if 10 are enough to set the bike up. And knows the engine are now 6, not 18, so any lap done without a defined purpose is potentially damaging. So, we can assume, and he said so in debriefs, it's a "freak" accident, it just happens, they can't really pinpoint reasons for it, proof being they tried to provoke it in FP.
Preziosi and his team can read datas and have access to many, many of them. They can think straight, and they can think out of the box. It's not a frame flaw, it's not a technical problem due to the bike. This said, they do have troubles making the bike really work with softer tyres but that's a different problem. Or is it ?
Quatar, Jerez and Le Mans FP and QP have shown Casey was always at the front/near the front on race tyres. It's not like he needed to chase down 0,5 sec to fight for the win so we can rule out riding above his talent.
Other riders, presumably very good and rather experienced, have had falls, and they all point to the front tyre.

We may very well be back in 2006: very fast but prone to fall due to a front tyre he couldn't/didn't feel.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

I guess a different way of saying what I'm trying to suggest goes like this:
Enough has changed in the weight balance on the bike since last year (rider mass, engine character, other "secret" design changes) that they have a problem on a full tank that they haven't had before. Issues with BridgeStone become a chicken-vs.-egg question and are likely inextricably linked.

Whether it's as simple as there's more rear grip than he was used to and that's throwing off the balance during full-tank, or whether all those changes are not kosher with (some of) the front tires this year, or both, I don't know... but that's what it looks like to me.

It could be interpreted that Hayden is experiencing the same problems, but is a little more prudent in managing it. Whether that's just the way he is, or is the lesson he learns taking longer runs in free practice, I guess, is the big question.
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Oscar »

Rusty Bucket USA wrote:I guess a different way of saying what I'm trying to suggest goes like this:
Enough has changed in the weight balance on the bike since last year (rider mass, engine character, other "secret" design changes) that they have a problem on a full tank that they haven't had before. Issues with BridgeStone become a chicken-vs.-egg question and are likely inextricably linked.

Whether it's as simple as there's more rear grip than he was used to and that's throwing off the balance during full-tank, or whether all those changes are not kosher with (some of) the front tires this year, or both, I don't know... but that's what it looks like to me.

It could be interpreted that Hayden is experiencing the same problems, but is a little more prudent in managing it. Whether that's just the way he is, or is the lesson he learns taking longer runs in free practice, I guess, is the big question.
Rusty - I'm wondering whether it's not a very complex bag of problems that sometimes all conspire to shake the thing out of the groove. I'm thinking along the lines of a combination of frame, fork and swing arm stiffness and resonances plus tyre reaction plus weight balance. If the tyres - especially the front - are either not particularly consistent - and how often have we heard in the last six months of people in every camp not seeming to be able to find a consistent setting between tyres even in the one practice session? - then that would invalidate the data from earlier runs.

C/F has a very abrupt rise in stiffness - even though it can be tuned by varying thickness, thread direction etc - resonances can occur over a very small range of input conditions and just as quickly disappear. I suspect that a quite small range of variables for the tyre including track temp and weight could produce resonances throughout the bike that might be enough to break traction at the limits to which these guys ride. Unless the bike is comprehensively strain-guaged, such phase-points are unlikely to be easily discovered. You could put the whole thing on a stress jig and twist the heck out of it and that would tell you some - but not all - of the answers because you'd need to duplicate the tyre characteristics at the coefficient of friction of the track, carcass,tread temp,load and cyclical frame loading input.

It makes sense to me that Hayden's longer runs in practice give him more exposure to a greater range of conditions and hence almost certainly more experience of 'that uncertain feeling' and of how much margin for error to dial in - and that would seem to be currently sitting behind the Fiat Yamahas and the Repsol Hondas (well, most of the time!) in terms of lap times. No disrespect to Hayden is intended by that comment - he is doing a damn fine job this year of holding it together - but Stoner is, I think both expected and expects of himself to be at the very least podium material every race and always trying for a win. Hence Stoner is more likely to get into the critical zone more frequently than Hayden unless they both run around basically in tandem.

Hayden is doing absolutely exactly what a No.2 rider is usually expected - bring it home, bring it home well up the field, be the close back-up to the No.1 rider while he makes the running for the best possible result. I think what he said in that post Le Mans interview on Soup should be noted: the 'I couldn't have run that race 2/10ths faster' was to me as much a commentary on the capabilities of the bike as of the rider - and I rate Hayden highly.

Edit - changed 2/100ths to 2/10ths for Hayden's race - loose finger problem..
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

Okay, it's finally time to bring this up (since no one else has), not that it provides any answers...
Looking at the lap charts, the great bulk of Hayden's race was in the 1:35.1 - 1:35.6 bracket. Two cold laps to start the race and the rest of the race below 1:36 (though, curiously, the last lap, avoiding and passing Pedrosa, was his slowest "race" lap), with only 4 above 1:35.6 and 2 of those above 1:35.64. That's pretty close to what I call a "metronome race". He's the highest placing rider with no 1:34's. I think this only reinforces his quote that he "...couldn't have gone .2 faster...".

The "slower riders" was Hayden's Lap 2, where he ceded .8 seconds and the position to Stoner. The entire rest of the race (save for 6 laps - the above mentioned 4, plus two between 1:35.57 and 1:35.6) Hayden bettered what was Stoner's fast lap (of 2), including Hayden's Lap 3 which was nearly identical to Stoner's Lap 2; the last sector they ran together was .35 sec slower for Hayden.

Again, I don't know what conclusions can be drawn from it, but it still sort of suggests he (Stoner) needs more time practicing full-tank, and maybe needed only one more lap before pushing as hard as he did.

(P.S.: Oscar, I'm not sure exactly where that picture of Stoner was taken, but it's not the right part of the track to be in proximity to the crash. It could be from the lap before (which would be in the broadcast), just past the point where he crashed.)
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Oscar »

Rusty Bucket USA wrote:(P.S.: Oscar, I'm not sure exactly where that picture of Stoner was taken, but it's not the right part of the track to be in proximity to the crash. It could be from the lap before (which would be in the broadcast), just past the point where he crashed.)
Rusty - thanks for the heads-up, as I said it seemed to be too upright to be the actual crash in action. However, two things occur to me: firstly, that Stoner's comment of 'we had a couple of moments with the rear' would, to me, be somewhat of an understatement, since the damn thing was fairly obviously trying to throw him over the bars.. The second point - and I think we have just about thrashed this subject out for the moment - is a more subtle one. Accepting on face value his assertion that he had sought to reproduce front-end problems in practice and failed (though we all don't know whether he tried on varying fuel loads, though that would seem a pretty basic step to take) but the rear end was occupying his thoughts, perhaps it wasn't such an elementary mistake on his part to place faith in the front end even at such an early stage in the race. Wrong, as is evident, but not necessarily obdurate or not properly considered on the facts he had to date.
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by sir_nj »

Rusty Bucket USA wrote:I don't know what conclusions can be drawn from it, but it still sort of suggests he (Stoner) needs more time practicing full-tank, and maybe needed only one more lap before pushing as hard as he did.
RBU, that was my conclusion after his previous crash and I'm even more convinced of it now, seems a bit simple really so that means both you and I should step away from the computer or we should be running a MotoGp team. I would prefer the latter :lol:

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by RatsMC »

sir_nj wrote:...seems a bit simple really so that means both you and I should step away from the computer or we should be running a MotoGp team. I would prefer the latter :lol:

See, this is what makes me appreciate this place as much as I do. Knowledgeable opinions are expressed but held with humility. So often the Internet is awash with experts who can analyze the performance of experts from their couches. That doesn't mean that some of the conjecture here is wrong as it comes frm careful thought and experience but there is a recognition that we can't possibly know the certain truth.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

I just know how to ask good questions... ;)

Oscar, I think that picture is just a relatively "ordinary" set up for a low-speed left-hander. The crash was a downhill, long right-hander (which may be what's in the horizon behind him, I can't tell... and since Hayden isn't in the picture, it isn't Lap 2, I've since realized).

My first guess was it was just too-much throttle, which would pick up the nose (ala Brno '08), but I haven't seen a good video of what he and Nicky are talking about, so maybe he overloaded the front earlier in the corner and tried to save it with the gas (and his elbow). Overloading the front would be more consistent with a heavy-tank problem.

Still, it all boils down to what he feels, and maybe in the process of getting healthy, he's gained enough weight to throw off "feel" until they get spring and damper rates and tire pressures right (for full-tank and cold tires).
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by RatsMC »

I just figured out how to edit videos. I am going to test my skills by trying to isolate the Hayden slips. It may take me until Saturday since I really don't know what I am doing.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Jester »

This is the best I could get out of the MotoGP vid. It happens right before the camera cuts and it appears for a split second in the frame.

Image

I bet he was lining up to pass Pedrosa right after this turn.

EDIT***
Actually I'm going to say he might have ran too hot into this turn to get some drive out of the corner and line up that pass on Pedrosa because isn't this the corner right before he lined up the pass on Nicky...? I will be back tomorrow with another edit on this post after I rewatch the race again and realize that I was wrong and I'm an idiot.

Cheers!
Last edited by Jester on Fri May 28, 2010 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by RatsMC »

Welcome and thanks.

That is definitely a front end slide.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Oscar »

Jester - welcome, great post - I wonder if it'll last before the Evil Empire demands it be taken off? ( Let alone any video clips - if Dorna spent more time making their bloody site work properly and less time screwing the fans for the last euro they can nail down they'd get a whole lot more fan appreciation..)

Just looking at that makes me wonder if Stoner's right boot has a tale to tell - it must have been terribly close to being a pivot for the back end to lift.
Jester wrote: I bet he was lining up to pass Pedrosa right after this turn.
I reckon that's spot on - he wanted to at the least tack onto Lorenzo's back wheel, I'm thinking...
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Jester »

Thanks guys, glad to be here. I've written a few posts on the main page but I've definitely been more of a lurker! I'm trying to force myself to be a contributor more now, I'm just afraid of saying something stupid or being perceived as an armchair jockey but I'm getting over it.

Anyhow, I have this program that will record anything on your computer screen so I'm going to try and record that 2 second clip and force it into slow motion because what you don't see in the still shot is when and how is foot comes off the peg. This is important because on the next shot (it's a long, i.e. far away shot) it's almost a full second or more until you see his bike slide across the frame in the background for the actual crash. That coincides with what he and Nicky were saying about the front going first and him sliding on his elbow for a few meters.

Also, after reading all the posts on this thread, I do think he could benefit from more lap times on the bike, if anything just as more time to look for and solve this problem. Preferably with a full tank but, whatever.

However, I'm still as confused as anyone because one minute he said he backed off the pace which doesn't load the front correctly enough for grip but then the next Vito was quoted in an article today as saying that Casey was on the brakes too hard in Qatar (which doesn't necessarily mean backing off the pace). I interpret "backing off the pace" as maybe taking it easier, braking earlier perhaps before the turn, gliding into it and getting on the gas at a known safe point for you're lean angle... Where you know it's not going to be an issue. Now they say he grabbed too much brake mid turn I think in Qatar.

So yea, I'm really confused to whether this is a case of pushing too hard or not because it seems to be contradicting to me. As far as looking over this race again, it kind of looks like he was aggressively pursuing the leaders and Pedrosa. Which I don't think is a bad thing, but due to all the changes in the engine and grip, not knowing the bike fully, combined with a possible cold tire.... ughhhh... It gutted me to see this tho, my heart sank when I saw him crash again. I'm hoping he stays strong mentally through all this and doesn't let it chip away at his confidence.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Desmo44 »

Jester wrote:I'm hoping he stays strong mentally through all this and doesn't let it chip away at his confidence.
I really don't think there is anyone who is mentally tougher. Perhaps a milk shake would set him back, but I doubt that even this front end mystery will slow him down.

My impression is that possibly his biggest problem is overconfidence. As has been mentioned before, his real battle is with the track and his only goal is to be as fast as humanly (or should I say, divinely) possible. If you look at the races where he didn't have the package he would bring it home in third or fourth or whatever because he knew he couldn't be as fast as he would like. When he does have the package, he rides accordingly and wins easily or his confidence in the package takes him to the extreme edge so often that the track bites back while at the front or on his way to the front as at LeMans.
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

CLX wrote:Is this the first time ever the same 3 guys win races on consecutive wekeends? Espargaro, Elias and Lorenzo at both jerez and Le Mans.
Perhaps you gave the wizards at the corporate site the idea... :?:
http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2010/lore ... o+in+a+row

It turns out my guesses were correct, even more than I realized (3 times in '02 alone!). It looks like only once before have the three been countrymen (and appears to be the only time all three have the same letter at the end of their last names). And, as the article points out, the really interesting opportunity for a trifecta exists now, which has only happened once before.

As Rats suggested, this appears to be the first time for an all-Spaniard "Triumvirate".
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by raisinberry777 »

Well for an interesting statistic with that, in 95 and 96 Doohan, Biaggi and Aoki took out their classes' championships

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by RidgeRunner »

Rusty Bucket USA wrote:Okay, it's finally time to bring this up (since no one else has), not that it provides any answers...
Looking at the lap charts, the great bulk of Hayden's race was in the 1:35.1 - 1:35.6 bracket. Two cold laps to start the race and the rest of the race below 1:36 (though, curiously, the last lap, avoiding and passing Pedrosa, was his slowest "race" lap), with only 4 above 1:35.6 and 2 of those above 1:35.64. That's pretty close to what I call a "metronome race". He's the highest placing rider with no 1:34's. I think this only reinforces his quote that he "...couldn't have gone .2 faster...".

The "slower riders" was Hayden's Lap 2, where he ceded .8 seconds and the position to Stoner. The entire rest of the race (save for 6 laps - the above mentioned 4, plus two between 1:35.57 and 1:35.6) Hayden bettered what was Stoner's fast lap (of 2), including Hayden's Lap 3 which was nearly identical to Stoner's Lap 2; the last sector they ran together was .35 sec slower for Hayden.

Again, I don't know what conclusions can be drawn from it, but it still sort of suggests he (Stoner) needs more time practicing full-tank, and maybe needed only one more lap before pushing as hard as he did.
The conclusion you can(did) draw is that Nicky rode a smart,steady,professional race,if only by running lap two slower ,then feeling it and picking up the pace.He did not have a bike capable of going as fast as the winners,so he went as fast as he could,when he could. Determining that is the trick. Casey did not do this. He fell . Conclusion drawn .This is a results based activity. You put it in black and white. How to remedy it?? First step is to say "I messed up. I am not fast when I am on the ground. I cannot win the race on the ground.I will no longer use the term "slower rider" to describe the number 4 finisher(or anyone else) to my DNF,particularly based on the second lap of a race."
I do not mean to disparage a former World Champion. He is a great racer. I am a non-racer with a keyboard. He is very disappointed for himself and his team. He is a proud,talented man and he cares. He is in it to win it, not ride around .But the fact is he fell going too quickly, too early in this race(tires??full tank??lack of relevant practice?? blindly believing bin it or win it??) No mystery to the problem.He keeps falling down,his competition does not.Underlying cause of problem and solution is what he and his team are paid to determine.Get on with it.But he must stop acting as though falling down is a stroke from the heavens.It is the rider. Uncompetitive, slow or poor handling/braking bikes are team/engineering/planning/preparation problems and that may or may not describe his motorcycle ..but failing to adapt and survive by falling down two out of three races is a rider problem.Hayden is surviving and making a good showing. Pedrosa is clearly on a flawed machine.Pedrosa and Vale appear to be fast on the supposedly problematic Bridgestones.They could all crash next race, but so far, they have adapted and made the best of it. Professionals do that. Casey is a Professional and former World Champion. It's time he began to ride like one.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans 2010 (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by ieism »

Didn't hear any complaints about mysterious front-end problems from any of the satelite Ducati riders.....Any thoughts on that? Are they using an older chassis that doesn't have the front end problems, or is it pretty much the same as the factory bikes?

Or is Stoner just too fast for the Ducati now? He did crash after just setting the fastest laptime.....
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans 2010 (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by motomania »

+1, well said RR.

I laughed when I heard him say that if Hayden were going as fast as him, he'd have issues. Maybe that's why Nicky finished fourth and you didn't finish, he knew that he was on the edge and didn't cross it.

I like Casey but this whining about it being caused by slower riders and others not pushing like he can and he then falls down, is ridiculous. Suck it up, admit that you, the bike, the tire or whatever screwed up and move on. I think he's pushing too hard too fast but refuses to see that as the cause. I also don't think his 1-3 lap "runs" help him much as he doesn't get any idea how the bikes changing as fuel load, tires, etc. go away. Just my two gold coins worth.
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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans 2010 (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by Tumi »

ieism wrote:Didn't hear any complaints about mysterious front-end problems from any of the satelite Ducati riders.....Any thoughts on that? Are they using an older chassis that doesn't have the front end problems, or is it pretty much the same as the factory bikes?
Kallio has had continuing front end set up problems and also couple of crashes where I recall him saying the front just went on a neutral stage just before getting on the gas. AFAIK all GP10s should have more or less the same chassis.

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Re: MotoGP Round 3 - Le Mans 2010 (Spoilers, all classes)

Post by RatsMC »

Tumi, please do not leave us. Your info on Kallio is invaluable. All we ever get are Dorna and Pramac sound bites. Please feel free to post as much info as you feel like. From where we sit, Kallio seems like a content and happy rider but, knowing what I do about him, I just can't believe that to be true. Finland produces racers not back-markers.

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