MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

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p4p1
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by p4p1 »

Fingernails wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:06 pm
atropos wrote:
Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:28 pm
MM93 did not post a time in Q2. AM73 had a crash and appears to have injured his right arm.

What are the chances of that?
Cal is also injured due to a crash. It seems the Honda is living up to its reputation as a tricky bike to ride.

Interesting qualifying, and it should be close for the race tomorrow. Is this Bagnaia's first every front row start in MotoGP?

Good starting position for Olivera. I was sure that Binder was going to be top KTM, even before Espagaro crashed.
I never thought of that but at Repsol Honda - Lorenzo last year, Pedrosa almost constantly and Stoner in 2012.
Binder has been on fire all weekend. I’m not sure why autocorrect changed it to grinder in my post above.
Dovi dropped the ball big time today.

atropos
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by atropos »

Yes, I'm a bit mystified about Dovi - it's not like they didn't have the setup already dialled in from last week. Maybe some minor tweakage needed, but he did much better last week.

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CLX
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by CLX »

Dovi is his own worse enemy. It's almost as if he doesn't have a Q mode at all.

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Fingernails
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Fingernails »

Keep on watching the Moto2 cool down lap. That was quite eventful.

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Tourn46
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Tourn46 »

Class by Fabio again.

Pecco looked fantastic until the bike went (Franco looked good too).

Vinales disappointed but good points.

Rossi a massive turnaround from last week - interesting that he said he had to force Yamaha to allow him to make some changes and Lin Jarvis confirmed this was true in an interview on BT Sport.

That's 3 Yamaha engines now sent back to Japan over the last 2 race weekends... cause for concern?

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CLX
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by CLX »

Weird race. Half the field imploded and Dovi still went backwards... I don’t know what to make of it except the obvious uphill battle he’ll have to try to beat Quartararo.

Be honest, is Quartararo already more complete and competitive than Vinales or is this recency bias? With an open track he was perfect today. Last week he did not lead from turn 1 and he was still impecable. I feel as if Quatararo is better equipped for less than perfect Sundays while being as fast as any.

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kenup283
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by kenup283 »

Dovi 3rd in championship after two back to back races at Jerez. Job well done. Question marks about implosions will have to wait till after the Austrian double header following Brno.

Fabio did great. We saw him threating the win here last year too if not for a broken shift lever. Looking at rest of tracks, just from how they did last year, Quatararo may have the measure on Vinales. Overtaking and fitness are areas where I see the difference that gives one the edge over the other coming into play.

I was also thinking that historically the first rider to take consecutive wins has a better than 75% chance at winning the championship going back to 1949. Of course many things about this year that throw that off and we’ve also seen Vinales come out with double wins to start the season only to go hot and cold after. Not taking anything away from Fabio here. Just have a feeling that other 25% is lurking out there still.

Also want to drop in a word for Rossi and the way he held his position was great to see. I do agree Yamaha can find themselves in engine trouble with the reduced number allowed this year and the stacking up of tracks that have not been kind to them on engines in past. We know they are already up against it on power and this only restricts them more on turning up the revs.

It’s going to be a back and forth year.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Mikesbytes »

Seems to be a hard track on Engines

Overtaking seems to be a weak point for Vinales, it seemed pretty clear that he had better pace than Rossi but didn't seem to have much ability to get past.
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atropos
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by atropos »

Rossi was doing a good job of being a road block.

p4p1
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by p4p1 »

CLX wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:44 am
Weird race. Half the field imploded and Dovi still went backwards... I don’t know what to make of it except the obvious uphill battle he’ll have to try to beat Quartararo.

Be honest, is Quartararo already more complete and competitive than Vinales or is this recency bias? With an open track he was perfect today. Last week he did not lead from turn 1 and he was still impecable. I feel as if Quatararo is better equipped for less than perfect Sundays while being as fast as any.

Vinales poor race craft goes all the way back to his days at Suzuki. He has to be a lot faster than the guy he is trying to pass and even then it’s not a given he will get through. Vinales IMO is looking to be another Pedrosa, almost unstoppable on his day but if things aren’t perfect then he will be nowhere. Fabio looks to already have better race craft that Vinales, we will find out if his consistency is better than Mavericks this year.
Fabio looking good but there are some tracks coming up that will suit Dovi and Ducati mor which could make for a close title fight. Marc coming back could put himself between Dovi and Fabio in two of the next 3 races. On the other hand one 100% Marquez could beat Dovi on tracks that the Ducati should be stronger than Yamaha taking important points away from Dovi’s championship charge.
Rossi looked better but let’s not forget if not for Morbidellis engine Rossi was very possibly going to end up as the last Yamaha.

I want to say the championship should be over for Marquez but I’m just not sure if it is yet. 11 races to go and anything could happen. SIC are looking the goods for the team championship IMO.

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Fingernails
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Fingernails »

All it takes is for FQ to fall off one race and MM to win, and things will be very different.

Even without FQ suffering more misfortune than a returning MM, MM won the championship last year by a margin of 151 points. And there aren't that many fewer races this year than last year. MM is far from out of it.

Even if I adjust that for a 19 race season last year, and 11 races remaining this year, then it's still a 87.42 point margin for MM.

We'll see what happens in the next race, and how quickly MM returns to full speed.

When was the last time the MotoGP, or predecessor, championship was won by a satellite team?

bikermike
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by bikermike »

whilst it's not a complete collapse for Dovi, it's not looking that clever for him is it?

If Pecco's bike hadn't blown up, it would looked even less clever.

3 Yamahas at the front is ominous, unless they blow all their engines up.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Wow what an eventful races, think I have seen wet races with heavy downpour that have had less offs. The blow-ups are unusual too, and reading about what is happening with Yamaha with their engine allocations it sounds like they will do well to avoid pitlane starts later in the year.

Dovi was extremely fortunate to get the 6th place. Everyone blowing up and falling off around him. But, so much of a WC can come down to luck, and we're now going to tracks that favour the Ducati. Ultimately, he has come through two weekends at a hated track far better than he could have hoped for.

Very disappointing for KTM - I had made a small bet on a podium for one of them, predictably their two top positioned guys get taken out on the first corner.
p4p1 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:00 am
I want to say the championship should be over for Marquez but I’m just not sure if it is yet. 11 races to go and anything could happen. SIC are looking the goods for the team championship IMO.
Apologies for sounding pedantic but.. we think 11 races, I definitely think it will pay to stay in front in this WC as we just don't know what will happen.

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Antipodean
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Antipodean »

El Diablo won on a .666 :D :twisted:

I can't wait to see an emboldened 20 full of confidence come up against a frustrated 93 looking to reassert his authority. Here's hoping Marc is fighting fit soon.

Looking at the Brno forecast - thunderstorms are (not entirely unreasonably) possible. Could a wet track there help bring a battered Marquez up to speed with his less damaged adversaries?

I'm not as doubtful about dauntless Dovi as many others seem to be - he has managed two solid point scoring runs on a decidedly non-Ducati track (at least it was previously). Despite the this-and-that happening to the other riders, he was still fastest Duc on both days. If Marc comes back and wins the next two races, and Dovi did another 3rd and 6th - they'd be on the same points. It might be the best and/or last chance for him to do it, but he coooould still "slow and steady" the championship. Although history would say he'll get skittled just as it looks possible. He's also a fair bet for a podium in Czechia.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Mikesbytes »

I'm haven't done the math's but it wouldn't surprise me if MV could of gone with FQ if he hadn't got himself stuck behind VR. Overtaking is an area that MV needs to improve his skills
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p4p1
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by p4p1 »

Fingernails wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:20 am
All it takes is for FQ to fall off one race and MM to win, and things will be very different.

Even without FQ suffering more misfortune than a returning MM, MM won the championship last year by a margin of 151 points. And there aren't that many fewer races this year than last year. MM is far from out of it.

Even if I adjust that for a 19 race season last year, and 11 races remaining this year, then it's still a 87.42 point margin for MM.

We'll see what happens in the next race, and how quickly MM returns to full speed.

When was the last time the MotoGP, or predecessor, championship was won by a satellite team?
Rossi? I know the team had JB, Doohans crew and was essentially a factory team but was it considered a ‘proper’ factory team like Repsol was?

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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by p4p1 »

bikermike wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:36 am
whilst it's not a complete collapse for Dovi, it's not looking that clever for him is it?

If Pecco's bike hadn't blown up, it would looked even less clever.

3 Yamahas at the front is ominous, unless they blow all their engines up.
3 Yamahas had the front, probably should have been 4. No Marquez, so essentially no Honda, Rins hasn’t recovered and the track favours Yamaha much more than Ducati.

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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by p4p1 »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:04 pm
Wow what an eventful races, think I have seen wet races with heavy downpour that have had less offs. The blow-ups are unusual too, and reading about what is happening with Yamaha with their engine allocations it sounds like they will do well to avoid pitlane starts later in the year.

Dovi was extremely fortunate to get the 6th place. Everyone blowing up and falling off around him. But, so much of a WC can come down to luck, and we're now going to tracks that favour the Ducati. Ultimately, he has come through two weekends at a hated track far better than he could have hoped for.

Very disappointing for KTM - I had made a small bet on a podium for one of them, predictably their two top positioned guys get taken out on the first corner.
p4p1 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:00 am
I want to say the championship should be over for Marquez but I’m just not sure if it is yet. 11 races to go and anything could happen. SIC are looking the goods for the team championship IMO.
Apologies for sounding pedantic but.. we think 11 races, I definitely think it will pay to stay in front in this WC as we just don't know what will happen.
No apologies necessary, there’s also every chance that it ends up being more than a 13 race season. If the season is any less than 10 races should a championship be awarded? Where should the cut off be? It would be insanity if the season was cancelled now and Fabio was awarded the title, after 5 races it still seems too short. I’m thinking 10 could be the smallest amount of races. It’s unfair in a way but how much would a 6 or 7 round title actually mean?

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

That's an interesting point. Looking back the mid 80s I think it was around a dozen races for a championship and then I believe went up at the end of that decade. I'm sure someone with a good anorak and stats book could look back to earlier periods and even less races than that? :)

I get the feeling it if it was say 5 races (next ones in Czech and double at Austria, then all others cancelled) you might add an asterisk next to it, and probably 10+ for it to be seen as a fully legitimate championship? I personally don't think it should mean for any less even if it is a few less (maybe 7 or 8), the series is arguably the most competitive it has ever been and no-one is going to waltz to the championship - but you can imagine the debates going on for some years if that happens.
Rossi? I know the team had JB, Doohans crew and was essentially a factory team but was it considered a ‘proper’ factory team like Repsol was?
My recollection is.. (although it's getting a bit hazy!) that that was a full factory HRC bike alongside the Repsol bikes of Criville and Ukawa.

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Fingernails
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Fingernails »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:33 pm
My recollection is.. (although it's getting a bit hazy!) that that was a full factory HRC bike alongside the Repsol bikes of Criville and Ukawa.
Yes, but that answers my question. As aren't the Petronas bikes close enough to factory spec?

Even if not, Rossi wasn't in the factory team, so that still fits.

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Tourn46
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Tourn46 »

According to Martin Raines on Twitter (a conversation with our own Mr Emmett), there has never been a 'privateer/satellite' champion and that it would be hard to consider any bike on the current grid to be anything other than a factory bike.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by Mikesbytes »

I see it that how many races should be considered a world championship boils down to opinion, there are world championships that are decided in a single race in some sports

The ASBK championship is consisting of 6 race weekends this year and even last year was only 7.
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by motor »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:33 pm
Rossi? I know the team had JB, Doohans crew and was essentially a factory team but was it considered a ‘proper’ factory team like Repsol was?
My recollection is.. (although it's getting a bit hazy!) that that was a full factory HRC bike alongside the Repsol bikes of Criville and Ukawa.
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Tourn46 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:28 pm
According to Martin Raines on Twitter (a conversation with our own Mr Emmett), there has never been a 'privateer/satellite' champion and that it would be hard to consider any bike on the current grid to be anything other than a factory bike.
Yes I suppose the description doesn't really mean as much these days. No Silver Dream racer getting unloaded from the back of someone's van and then lapping the rest of the field!

Actually spent a bit of time looking through Wikipedia as I was sure there was someone in the early 80s - there was Luchinelli who beat Mamola on a Suzuki in 1981 (Mamola was on the Texaco-Heron Suzuki which he had inherited from Barry Sheene, which I thought was the factory team) but as Dr Martin Raines knows all things (I'm not saying that sarcastically!) I'm guessing that must have factory also.

bikermike
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Re: MotoGP R3 26-7-20 Gran Premio Red Bull de Andalucía

Post by bikermike »

you could look at it another way:

back in the days of 2-strokes, there was very little optimisation that was fully understood, so an Erv Kannemoto could port better (on his day) than the factory guy. Also, given some of the blind alleys the manufacturers went up, simply by having last year's bike you might be better off.

With all the modelling now, a "second division" bike's performance is probably better-known than the performance of the full-fat bike in days of yore. When Yamaha wheel the bikes over to Petronas, they will know precisely what they need to beat, and there's no risk of a phlegmatic Brummie with a brazing torch and a round file finding a few more hundred revs than the factory bike. So to beat the factory team on a bike they know better than you do (and have presumably worked to beat it) is almost more of an achievement now the home-cooked special of the 70s.

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