2020 world championship prediction

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Mikesbytes
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2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

With the season part cancelled, there will always be speculation as to whether the cancelled rounds would of suited a particular rider or manufacturer over others. None of us do have a crystal ball but I decided to analyse 2019 by removing the races that have been listed as cancelled or TBD to see what difference it would make. The end result is that 1st and 2nd would be the same but 3rd wouldn't and some others are noticeable. I'm not seeing that the reduced season would favour a particular manufactuer.

Rider full season | Rider partial season - Partial season points
MARQUEZ | MARQUEZ 260
DOVIZIOSO | DOVIZIOSO 171
VIÑALES | QUARTARARO 142
RINS | RINS 140
QUARTARARO | ROSSI 134
PETRUCCI | VIÑALES 131
ROSSI | MILLER 124
MILLER | PETRUCCI 75
CRUTCHLOW | MORBIDELLI 74
MORBIDELLI | CRUTCHLOW 69
P ESPARGARO | P ESPARGARO 58
MIR | MIR 53
NAKAGAMI | BAGNAIA 52
A ESPARGARO | NAKAGAMI 39
BAGNAIA | A ESPARGARO 39
IANNONE | IANNONE 26
OLIVEIRA | OLIVEIRA 25
ZARCO | ZARCO 18
LORENZO | LORENZO 13
RABAT | RABAT 10
BRADL | SYAHRIN 6
PIRRO | ABRAHAM 6
SYAHRIN | BRADL 4
ABRAHAM | GUINTOLI 4
GUINTOLI | PIRRO 0

Honda - appears to be about the same
Yamaha - about the same but some marked differences in the riders
Suzuki - exactly the same
Ducati - about the same with Pettrucci taking a fall while Miller improves
KTM - about the same, bike and riders
Aprilia - almost the same

Ignoring the test riders the bottom of the field doesn't change at all
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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Stolen from the front page, Motoshrink has made this prediction, what's your prediction for what we have of this season?
The Riders
Motoshrink replied on Fri, 2020-07-03 08:07Site Supporter
2020 Riders (this is difficult, as they arrive in Spain and as MotoGP riders in general...as in put every single one of them on a Suzuki, plus adjust Mir and Rins for bike familiarity):

Rider. - Trending
21) Iker Lecuona - up a wee but in the grass with Tito
20) Tito Rabat - (on floor)
19) Bradley Smith - flat
Gap
18) Alex Marquez - up soon
17) Brad Binder - way up soon
16) Takaaki Nakagami - down
15) Miguel Oliveira - up
Gap
14) Pol Espargaro - flat
13) Aleix Espargaro - flat
12) Joan Mir - up
11) Francesco Bagnaia - hello? Flat in Red, blossoming w Davide
Gap
10) Johann Zarco - up surprise
9) Danilo Petrucci - down
8) Jack Miller - up mildly
7) Cal Crutchlow - down
Gap
6) Valentino Rossi - down but w a flash several spots up
5) Andrea Dovizioso - flat to crested and downish
4) Alex Rins - slow rise swapping w Dovi
3) Maverick Vinales - upish
Gap
2) Quartararo - up
Gap
1) Marc Marquez - (there is no up)

Whew! #3 through #6 was toughest. Bonus: COVID changes winner? Andrea Iannone. Loser? Jorge Lorenzo
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Apical
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Apical »

Marc Marquez wins the championship.

Don't know how many races we will have.

Don't know if we will go to Argentina. I think it is very unlikely.

Don't expect we will go to Cota. Hope America gets on top of the plague but not optimistic.

Thailand & Malaysia seem unlikely. Maybe by November Sepang could happen. I'd love to visit Malaysia again, final round there would be hot.

Whatever does happen Marc Marquez will probably win the championship. Don't have to be Nostradamus to predict that.

Dovi or Quartararo or Rins for second.

Write twenty names on 20 pieces of paper & throw them in the wind. You will get better accuracy than my predictions.

In two weeks time I will have a bit more of an idea.

Assuming we do get the season underway in Jerez. The virus may have more impact in the next week or two.
"Faster, faster, until the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death," Hunter S Thompson

bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

Sounds like the shipping forecast -

I reckon Marquez to win,
two or three yamahas behind him,
then the Ducatis (best bikes but, I can't see anyone at Ducati thinking about this year - Dovi will be unsettled whatever the result of the negotiations, Petrucci will be trying to get his head around German seperable verbs and Miller will be avoiding any kind of injury that will spoil next season).
Pol Esparagaro next having a last hurrah at KTM
suzukis

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

And Alex Marquez trying to prove himself on the factory Honda.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

Good point- I'd completely forgotten about him.

I don't think he'll do that well - I read somewhere he's slow starter in most classes, the Honda is quite a beast and anyone trying to play outside their natural game may well come a cropper.

In wider terms, I was trying to figure out which camp will do better - the "win or bin" brigade or the scientists. (Marquez and Dovi being the leading contenders for each camp as I see it).

Plusses for the win or bin- it's a short season, an early lead will become unassailable very quickly

Plusses for the scientists - back to back races mean an optimal set-up will pay dividends in race 2.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

I agree with your impressions of Marquez. However, I've been wrong frequently in the past. And, I'd greatly enjoy it if Alex M proves me wrong :D

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Simon Patterson (the journalist) reckons Quatararo would be worth a punt if you are a betting man. Tyre and bike changes that favour in the in-line four, and the tracks to be raced at are favoured by Fabio (even on his first year).

Think he might have some good points, but it will be interesting whether he continues to grow and gain consistency, or has that 'difficult second album' year now that there is some pressure and expectation to succeed.

I can still remember the early press about Quatararo when he was 15yrs old and first appeared on the scene. You would have thought he could have walked on water and Marquez may as well have retired already with the amount of gushing praise and the prospect of him coming through, despite him barely having raced a GP at that point. Then the pressure builds and becomes too much (we saw something similar with Olievera and Vinales as well actually, to a point) - when they stepped out of the limelight and the pressure was reduced they had some room to breathe and the talent came through. It will be interesting to see what happens to Fabio now that that pressure is going to be applied once more.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

Personally I think that Quatararo, now, is ready to handle the pressure. I expect good things at the factory Yamaha team, tempered slightly by my belief that the Petronas team and bike are not far behind the factory, and he won't get much of a boost from that quarter.

Jagbruno
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Jagbruno »

I wouldn’t forget the two Suzuki.
The new Michelin’s will favour them as well and their inline four engine is arguably more powerful than the Yamaha, while both riders have matured considerably. Rins capable of the very best but a tad irregular, Mir steadily improving.

bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

hello Jagbruno!

Of course the lack of drama at Suzuki could play in their favour too - riders settled, bike settled - if the tyres change that's only one moving part to deal with.

Be nice to see them do well

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

@Fingernails - we will have to wait and see I guess! I would certainly hope that Quatararo, as being a bit older and mature now (I half-say after reading his Twitter feed, he is still a young guy!) he will cope well. Fabio vs. Marc could well carry on to be the next big rivalry, the first time Marc has had to fend off other hands on the crown from someone from below. It may well be epic to see (even some of the races last year were incredible!)
Jagbruno wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:58 pm
I wouldn’t forget the two Suzuki.
The new Michelin’s will favour them as well and their inline four engine is arguably more powerful than the Yamaha, while both riders have matured considerably. Rins capable of the very best but a tad irregular, Mir steadily improving.
Definitely - have read a lot about how the new tyres will help the inline fours.
Rins reminds me a lot of Kevin Schwantz (aside from them both being on the Suzuki and their riding styles looking kind of similar!) in that he is ferociously talented and can absolutely be the fastest guy in the world on a given day. But, like Schwantz lost out to Lawson, Doohan, Rainey on account of his lack of consistency, it might well be the same for Rins. Remember Schwantz did finally get that WC at the end of his career, but it will be interesting if Rins can follow likewise. I think he is capable, but perhaps like Schwantz it might rely a little on what happens around him?

Mir I definitely think is something special. He was heavily hampered by injury last year (I don't think it was that widely reported just how bad it was) so I'd definitely look for him to take the next step up this year, that's if we have a bloody race :)

hdot
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by hdot »

Well well well well well....

motor
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by motor »

hdot wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:49 pm
Well well well well well....
Bloody hell...

Now what :) :(
Once more into the fray
Into the last good fight I'll ever know
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gwcrim
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by gwcrim »

Marc is giving everyone a two race head start and he'll still probably win the championship. He ran a crazy fast race pace today. But apparently a tiny bit too fast.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by motor »

I wouldn't be too sure about how dominant Marc actually can be, over the season - with or without the injury.

He has always been extremely dominant in very-low-grip situations, something which we have seen many times before.

So in a way, it was business as usual yesterday - trademark supernatural save included - except for him going and losing his head.

If they get to normal-grip situations/tracks, it could be a different story with the Yamahas running away at the front.

We also have the odd track coming up which the Ducatis fancy...
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

gwcrim wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:13 am
Marc is giving everyone a two race head start and he'll still probably win the championship. He ran a crazy fast race pace today. But apparently a tiny bit too fast.
I started writing a post about a shortened season and how a head start would be difficult to overcome. However, on actually checking the season, I see there are 16 races.

Yes, I think a two race head start would be easily overcome by Marquez. However, to do so, he has to stay upright. He didn't just have one problem last race, but two. I'm not sure once Marquez returns that we're just going to see him always staying upright. Particularly if he's coming from behind in the points.

I do think that, on the minimal evidence of one race, that FQ has a reasonable chance of winning this year.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Based on how the Dukes normally go at Jerez, and how Dovi and Miller performed during that race (plus ofc Marquez and Rins most likely now out of the picture) I would say the odds of a Ducati getting a WC have just shortened significantly...

Especially with both Brno and Spielberg being tracks they go well at.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

If Marquez ends up missing enough rounds to be out of the world championship, what's your prediction for the championship?

The new rear tyres tends to benefit the I4's which can use the extra rear grip without over pushing the front however it seems that the Ducati's have largely got around that. Historically we haven't seen a satellite bike in the championship hunt for a long time but of course its possible and we don't yet have a feel for Suzuki.

At this point if Marquez is excluded I'll go;
1. Vinales
2. Dovi
3. Quartararo
4. Rins
5. Miller
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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

I think Quartararo is the favourite based in his speed and growing consistency. I fear Viñales will still blow hot and cold from one weekend to the next. And I beieve the M1 will be the bike to have through the season. Dovi has a very good chance but I don’t know If he can pull it off on weekends he needs to be less calculating and more risk taking.

Team orders might be a factor givne the golden opportunity which has been presented. But at what point will Yamaha tell one team to help the other? Petronas put a lot of money into it and they may never have another chance like this. On the other hand, it is a lot easier to picture Ducati and Pramac quickly reaching an agreement to help Dovi.

So whoever wants to win this has to run away with as many points as possible before Marc returns to be able to benefit from team orders and estabilish the breathing room necessary to survive an onslaught from Marquez and other pissed riders who don’t give a blip about getting in the way.

Regardless of preferences, MotoGP itself and we will all benefit if there are no more injuries.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

It's really dangerous making a prediction on the results of one race!

That being said, I haven't looked at the forecast yet but you could very easily end up with the same podium on Sunday.

We should have more of an idea after Brno and certainly Austria, and whether Fabio can keep on at podium pace or drops to 4-5th in those races and lets Dovi and Vinales back into the picture.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Japhrodisiac »

It looks like, MAYBE, we could have a 3-4 rider fight for the title this year. That would be great

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

It's been reported that M.Marquez doesn't have nerve damage. If he only misses 2 races then this what-if is dead
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bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

everyone said it was a blisteringly hot race with greasy track conditions. With lots of races pushed into the warmest part of the year, it will be interesting to see how much that affects Marc. dropping 2/16 isn't the end of the world, but if the heat takes away his edge, then it's a whole new ballgame.

I still think it's his to lose. For now.

I wonder how Dovi is feeling? if it is a Dovi/Marquez fight overall, dropping a few points to Quatararo isn't the end of the world, and 3rd at a non-duc-friendly track has to be a positive. OTOH, if Quatararo comes good...

I think I'll revise my predictions for Ducati and bring them up the list with Dovi

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

I posted elsewhere about this but I think Dovi is very well setup for this shortened season after the Marquez accident. If he can be on the podium this week and Maverick wins he head into 3 races that he will be strongly favoured at 13 points down. At Brno and Austria he could drag another Ducati between him and a Yamaha and possibly Marquez should he return in good shape he sets himself up very well. He’s also won at 4 of the remaining 7 tracks in the last 3 seasons while Vinales has only won at 1. Fabio is still an unproven quantity IMO his inconsistency could be down to it being his rookie year or he could be another Pedrosa.

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