2020 world championship prediction

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

a GP19 track perhaps...

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Wow this has become so hard to call now.. As bad as the Yamaha results looked, they were pretty much in line with results last year. It might be that the track being even slippier exasperated those problems (hence Vinales having an even worse result).

The world feed commentary have said that Ducati are really struggling with the new Michelin rear. Dovi in particular, that he can't ride the bike the way he used to of breaking into the apex, turning then picking up the bike out the corner. And perhaps Zarco coming into the team (riding a bike based around Lorenzo - Neil Spalding mentioned this might fit Zarco's style very well) means he has no preconception about how the bike 'should' ride. No doubt it feels great after the KTM which he felt was trying to kill him on every corner last year.

But we know Austria is the Ducati track. We will know for sure that a WC is off the cards for Dovi if he can't at least podium there.
Antipodean wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:17 pm
Mikesbytes wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:11 am
John Kocinski blamed a fish
I'd tried looking that one up, couldn't find it ;)
Just disappeared down a massive internet rabbithole trying to find what race it was. Someone in another forum had mentioned Donington so I looked through all the years he raced there and no mention in any of the 500cc race reports (which surely - fish on track - you'd expect), so wonder if it was during his 250cc years which have a lot less information online now.
Haha.. it's definitely one of the 'modern' information problems that if you can't find something on the internet, people assume that it doesn't exist! And it's just the case whichever journal, magazine article or biography that mentioned it hasn't found its way online.

If I have any chance I'll try and mention to some of the racing journoes on social media - perhaps between David, Mat Oxley, Jules Ryder etc. one of them might remember. I'm pretty sure it was somewhere hot/dry as it made the prospect of the fish lying on the track even more preposterous!

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

How do the points look now?
Dovi must he close, and even Binder.

Not to mention a certain spaniard resting at home.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

CLX wrote:
Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:40 pm
How do the points look now?
Dovi must he close, and even Binder.

Not to mention a certain spaniard resting at home.
Dovi is 11 points behind Quartararo. If we had another race with the same result as today's race, then Dovi would be leading the championship. Binder is in 4th, seven points behind Vinales and 26 behind Quartararo.

The championship appears much more open than it did a couple of races ago. Possibly in two races time it'll look different again.

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Tourn46
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Tourn46 »

Beginning to think Marc will fancy his chances at title #9.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Me too, which would be fascinating and exciting.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Marc must be happy with the results, the competition is divided and that will help him claw back when he returns
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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

Yes, I think that's pretty much the size of it, and maybe for the last few years too - lots of the riders are as good as each other, and then there is Marc.

I will be very interested to see how close they are to him now as the field has truly never been closer. I am sure that he won't be straight back to top form, but as long as he can continue to push beyond the limit and crash & save where other people crash & crash, he is definitely still in the running for the championship, if not the favourite.

p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

I still have to think he’s missed too many races to take the title. It’s not impossible, but starting 80 or more points down with 9 races left. I would imagine that with it being almost 6 weeks since the second surgery by the time he returns at Misano he would be close to 100%. An average of 9 or more points per race it is possible if his top 2 finishes run continues. We still don’t know what is going to happen with Yamahas engine. Quartararo could find himself with a mechanical DNF or a pit lane start, most riders will crash once during the season as well. But it still seems really far out that he could pull it off.

If he did, would there be any argument left about who is GOAT?

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

GOAT discussions are never truly settled in racing.

But it would be a hell of an argument in his favor.

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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

Comparing the current standings with the "same" point last year (after 4 races) - Fabio has less points but a larger lead than last year's champion. Mostly I think it's interesting to see how the points are spread wider across the rest of the field. Also - I'd forgotten how well Alex Rins was running at the beginning of last season.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

Antipodean wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am
Comparing the current standings with the "same" point last year (after 4 races) - Fabio has less points but a larger lead than last year's champion. Mostly I think it's interesting to see how the points are spread wider across the rest of the field. Also - I'd forgotten how well Alex Rins was running at the beginning of last season.
Given that there are fewer races this year, a lead after four races is more significant this year than it would have been last year. I'm not sure how to compare them. Given that FQ has had two poor races, he's going to have to get back on it or that lead will be eroded quickly.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Those 2019 championship points after 4 rounds included one DNF from Marquez where with the 2020 championship points Quartararo, Dovi and Vinales have not had a DNF. An interesting comparison none the less, thanks for posting Antipodean
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

I think with the return of Marc we are making too many assumptions (not to say you may be right and he just comes back and wins 10 races in a row and gets the WC!)

A - His injury. Good that he is taking time to heal to come back at Misano, but can we expect him to come back and immediately be strong enough to win?
B - The Honda. A really interesting podcast (The Race) talked to GP technical guru Neil Spalding about this. He thinks Honda have made some development mistakes and the bike isn't in the place it was 1 or 2 years ago and they are struggling with the new Michelin rear. He hypothesised this could have been why Marc crashed trying to do something on the bike that it wasn't capable of (think 2015). And whereas in the past Crutchlow (now Nakagami) could have expected podiums or even the odd challenge for the win, that isn't a possibility now over race distance.
He actually thinks the machine may need a complete re-design from the ground up :shock:

if this is the case that might explain why Marc hasn't tried to come back in Austria and instead is allowing himself to heal - not risking another (potentially career foreshortening) crash on a bike that is not capable of a WC. And I wonder if Honda themselves (who have just made the biggest rider investment of all time in $ terms) are protecting that investment.

I personally think Marc will influence the WC but not compete for it. If the Yamaha engine woes are getting resolved (which it sounds like they will) the bike will suit the tracks and cooler temperatures we will get at tracks with the late calendar this year, so I would still put Fabio or Maverick as my favourites. I suspect we may lose a race or two (in Spain or France especially) as the 2nd wave of Covid starts to rear its head.
Would love to see Dovi get it though we can't rule him out now that he seems to be in a better place and be able to ride the Ducati!

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:45 pm
B - The Honda. A really interesting podcast (The Race) talked to GP technical guru Neil Spalding about this. He thinks Honda have made some development mistakes and the bike isn't in the place it was 1 or 2 years ago and they are struggling with the new Michelin rear. He hypothesised this could have been why Marc crashed trying to do something on the bike that it wasn't capable of (think 2015). And whereas in the past Crutchlow (now Nakagami) could have expected podiums or even the odd challenge for the win, that isn't a possibility now over race distance.
I think I said this after the race before last. That I thought that given where the Hondas are, that Binder may well have beaten even an uninjured Marquez.

Marquez can ride around the limitations of a bike. But, to what degree does that include being prepared to take big risks and save the bike in situations where others cannot? The problem with that is that it's a high risk strategy. If Marc comes back, blitzes the field, but then falls off and injures himself again ... that's not going to win hm the championship.

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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:45 pm
...He thinks Honda have made some development mistakes and the bike isn't in the place it was 1 or 2 years ago and they are struggling with the new Michelin rear...
I am very interested to see if there is a sudden reversal of fortunes once everyone is back on the 2020 Michelin rear. Will Dovi and the Ducs slip down the timesheets again, with a corresponding ascendance from the Yamahas? Ooooh what a season!

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

So 5 races in and Marquez confirmed 100% out of this years championship, who's the current favourite? It's looking quite difficult to predict from this point forward
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:31 am
So 5 races in and Marquez confirmed 100% out of this years championship, who's the current favourite? It's looking quite difficult to predict from this point forward
I'm not sure that there is one. FQ needed to be coming home fourth on bogey tracks and he's not. Same for Dovi.

If I had to make a pick today, right now hours before the race, I might even go Vinales. But, in reality a lot of riders are still in with a reasonable, not just mathematical, shout. EDIT: And once I type Vinales, I start thinking it's unlikely.

Well, somebody has to win the championship. The rules preclude a tie.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

The leader in the world championship has averaged 14 points per race so far and out of 5 races. The maximum number of times a rider has been on the podium is twice - 10 riders have been on the podium out of 15 possible placements. While we can guess/predict the outcome, it can't be just based on the results of the first 5 races.

4 of the top 10 are in Satellite teams and they are evenly spread throughout that top 10 and 10th is on 35 points, only 35 points behind the leader, a single victory could put 10 place within spitting distance of the championship lead
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

What I see at the moment makes me think that Marc Marquez is the only alien in the field. Some may have been aliens in the past (Rossi being the clearest example), but I think none of them are now.

This makes things remarkably difficult to predict. But, that never stopped me predicting before.

Personally I think that Yamaha's troubles run deeper than just a few bogey tracks in a row. As I've posted on another thread, without MM93 to do the impossible, Misano was solidly Yamaha last year. If they don't do well in Misano, then I'm going to make my current prediction a battle between Dovi and Miller. I'm not yet at the stage where I will predict a KTM rider to win. If Yamaha have a good showing in Misano, then I will likely believe that FQ is still in it.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

I honestly think they need a word other than Alien for Marc - it doesn't do him justice! :)

Yes some real problems at Yamaha, will be interesting to see where they go from here. Simon Crafar thought that Vinales crash will almost certainly have destroyed another engine (front forks/radiator pushing through into the engine with the impact).
Daryl Beatie made an interesting comment that Yamaha might have been trying to reduce engine breaking to help save the engine, adding more pressure to the brakes and leading to the problem experienced by both Quatararo and Vinales. No idea if that's the case but the Yamahas were definitely having a mare.

I think you are right Fingernails if Misano is a bust for Yamaha then we know they are in trouble for the rest of the year, especially as they performed so strongly there before.

If I was a betting man I would still put money on Dovi. Think he is no-where near as strong as he has been in previous years, but he has made progress with the bike and always seems to finish in the top 6 (other than Brno). With the rest yo-yo-ing that might be what wins it this year

p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

If engines for next season have to be exactly the same as this season due to corona virus cost cutting then they might be totally screwed for next year as well. They can’t argue that they should be able to change anything on the engine for more reliability or because the previous years engines had problems. All manufacturers could do that, meaning there is no point in having the development rules for 20/21.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

I expect Quartararo to do much better at Misano and from then on Dovi and him will play yo-yo with the points lead.

Which is why it's so hard for me to bet on Dovi. He will always be under the stress of desperately trying to catch up with no room for error. Which makes Quartararo's job a lot easier than if roles were reversed.

And a side-note, Mir is starting to hit his stride. I know it's naive and incredibly optimistic to place him in the fight, but if he finds a well to qualify well and not lose time in traffic, he can at least be a constant podium contender and split Quartararo and Dovi while stealing points from both.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

The yo yo effect we have seen on the results this year is show how close the bikes are, you only need to be a couple of 1/10's off the pace and your way down the order
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

It is mad this year. Suzuki and KTM have definitely closed the gap too, shows the development concessions have worked and helped level the playing field. I honestly can't remember the last time the Suzuki looked this good that's for sure. Possible KRJR's championship year in 2000 or maybe the 2007 800 bike, where they would have won dry races if not for Stoner being so dominant. But it definitely looks the complete package, lovely handling bike and not losing too much top end even in Austria.
p4p1 wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:29 pm
If engines for next season have to be exactly the same as this season due to corona virus cost cutting then they might be totally screwed for next year as well. They can’t argue that they should be able to change anything on the engine for more reliability or because the previous years engines had problems. All manufacturers could do that, meaning there is no point in having the development rules for 20/21.
From what I have read the Yamaha engine reliability issue is due to a manufacturing fault with the valves - reading between the lines I would assume there is some very slight metallurgical fault that was not detected when the engine was made and has only become apparent when Yamaha inspected the failed engines that got returned to Japan.
If that's the case hopefully they should be able to resolve if they create any new ones.

Neil Spalding (the motogp technical guru) thought the extreme temps at Jerez (combined with the radiator layout of the Yamaha which means it is cooled less) might have pushed the engines over maximum tolerance. But, that might be less of an issue now with lower temperatures going into September and October.

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