2020 world championship prediction

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:56 am
It's been reported that M.Marquez doesn't have nerve damage. If he only misses 2 races then this what-if is dead
Not necessarily. Even if Marc races this weekend, we don't know how he will be able to perform, and we also don't know how many races remain on the calendar.

News of a flare-up of Covid in Catalonia for instance, that could cancel the race there and we just don't know about the fly-aways.

I think really you need to be in first place in the standings at all time, like a dry race when it's about to rain and it could get cancelled at any moment!

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Marquez has passed the medical, so he's back. Didn't expect that. Crutchlow and Rins in too
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p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

Just thinking about the teams championship, this year could be the first year that I know of where 2 satellite teams could be the 2 of the 3 strongest contenders for a team title.

I think Yamaha and SIC are fairly even, it will depend on how much Rossi has left for this year. Rossi *should* do better than Morbidelli but one should be improving while the other is declining so it’s anyone guess who comes out on top. Petrucci is an anchor for Ducati and will likely be beaten this year by Pecco. Miller is unlikely to beat Dovi but I think more of the tracks this year favour Ducati over Yamaha so he could score well this year. If Pecco can finish above Rossi, Petrucci and Morbidelli, he and Miller could pull off a teams title.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Does the team championship reward money or just bragging rights?

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Good point about the teams championship, with Alex learning and Mark missing scoring for at least 2 races, it looks like Honda are less likely to win the teams championship this year. Yamaha vs SIC is an interesting I'd say that's a bit like Quartararo vs Vinales + Rossi vs Morbidelli though Morbidelli is on the A spec. We could add Ducati to the teams championship contenders, Dovi has been 2nd 3 years in a row and Petrucci seems to have bounced back from being a bit beaten up last week
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

This is posted post-race.

Well, if FQ wants the championship, that is exactly what he should be doing. It must be helping his confidence too.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes that was a faultless performance for FQ, extremely impressive.

I'm still not quite ready to start printing a 2020 WC t-shirt yet though, although I definitely think he could do it. But I would expect Ducati and Dovi to come back over the next 3 races, the Yamaha engine issue to play a factor, Marc to get stuck back in (even if he doesn't become a direct WC rival - thinking back to 2015 here). What will be interesting for me is if FQ can get podiums at the tracks where last year he struggled to get top 6 or had DNFs, if he can add the consistency to the race wins then he could well become champion.
CLX wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 1:30 am
Does the team championship reward money or just bragging rights?
I'm not sure. I know a lot of the riders have performance clauses for race wins and finishing result, assume there would probably be a bonus clause for a WC too?

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

It will be interesting to see what path Quartararo takes from here, will he be cool and collected like Dovi, trying to take what points he can each race without throwing it down the road or will he get into a win it or bin it situation?
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes for sure. Vinales has limited the damage to 10pts over two races, despite barely being in sight at the end.

Really the Dukes haven't dropped that much either (Dovi at least). Looking at the Czech result last year Marquez won quite comfortably from Dovi and Miller. Quatararo was 12 seconds back in 7th. It will be interesting to see how quickly Marc can bounce back from the injury (if a podium is possible) but also how much the Yamahas are going to struggle - if they were already down last year and that was without the reliability issues! You can imagine what is going to happen on that steep uphill at the end of the lap..

bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

Interesting article on Crash comparing results from the 2 MotoGPs
https://www.crash.net/motogp/feature/94 ... back-jerez

(although I can't figure out what order they are in).

Dovi dropped 6 places and 0.121s
Quatararo and Vinales dropped no places (but didn't improve place-wise either. Disappointing from Quatararo...), but got slower by a greater margin

Apical
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Apical »

Not expecting my prediction to work, I picked Marc but if 93 wins & Fabio takes second Marquez improves his position by 5 points. Using that simple scenario Marc has to win ten times to pick up 50 points. M Marquez could do it based on recent form. But needs plenty of races. If we loose rounds, Barcelona/Catalunya for example where the plague is going up at the moment, the task gets harder. all Quartararo has to do is finish second at least & see if Marc can catch up. It is a very different situation for the Marc, he is usually leading & putting pressure on the rest of the class.

Found a interesting piece from Mat Oxley
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/arti ... -advantage

Oxley interviews Stiggy who says Fab is very accurate and precise. sounds like FQ 20 is the new "Metronome".

How many rounds will we have? MotoGp website still showing 11 more rounds starting with Brno. After Europe then maybe Argentina, Thailand and or Malaysia. So we could enjoy 16 races all up. That would be enough for a championship.

In the past the world champion has been decided over less races. I didn't bother going back to 1949, but had a bit of a look
In 1974 & 75 there were 10 rounds! the Isle of Man was still on the Gp calendar.
1980 only 8 races; Graziano Rossi fifth in the chip with about half the points of King Kenny Roberts.
By 1981 we had 11 rounds, 12 in 82 & 83. By 1988 up to 15 rounds.

However many races we get it will still be a real championship to me. The more races the better for MM93 and all the rest of us!
"Faster, faster, until the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death," Hunter S Thompson

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

I did some similar math's to you Apical, I based my assumption on 11 more races which determines that MM needs to average 5 points more per race, ie the example of MM coming first and FQ coming second at every round. I think its reasonable to predict that MM will average 5 points more than FQ over the season, however there are some variables that make making a prediction harder to predict;
1. How many rounds remain? While I've guessed that the flyaway rounds won't happen, I didn't think of the potential for European rounds being cancelled
2. How will MM perform in the next couple of rounds while he is recovering?
3. How reliable will the bikes be? We have seen 2 Yamaha's stop in the first 2 rounds (Rossi & Morbidelli)
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes, definitely think all of those things are going to be a factor Mikesbytes.

if this first few rounds (and this season in general) has taught us anything it's that things can very easily turn on their head in a single weekend!

As for Covid impact think Catalunya is the big question mark of the coming races. Currently having a spike of cases, they are closing bars/nighclubs and advising against travel to the area, but think that there is going to be a judgement over the next week whether the region goes into total lockdown again. know that race is a while away yet, but it sounds like there is a lot of argument between central Spanish government and regional Catalonia, with the former blaming them for not controlling things properly (it sounds like it is feeding into the whole Catalonia/separation argument) - all of which has the potential to string things out and upset the prospect of the race taking place.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

And now its reversed again. At this point I'm going to assume that Marquez won't win the championship but so much is in the air that this assumption could change.

That makes current prediction a 3 pointed battle between Quartararo, Viñuales and Dovi. If I was to guess past that, I'll take Dovi
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Jagbruno
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Jagbruno »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:10 am

That makes current prediction a 3 pointed battle between Quartararo, Viñuales and Dovi. If I was to guess past that, I'll take Dovi
... which would make for a super interesting situation if indeed Ducati had let him go in the meantime, as it looks probable... :mrgreen:

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

If Dovi or Vinales don’t get it done now, they never will.

I really hope they fight back before Fabio has a huge lead.

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bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

It was the window wot dunnit apparently

https://www.crash.net/motogp/news/94114 ... was-broken

One to rank with Dave Beasant and the salad cream...
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... adfoot-egg

p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

CLX wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:36 pm
If Dovi or Vinales don’t get it done now, they never will.

I really hope they fight back before Fabio has a huge lead.
Vinales is young enough for all the stars to align during his career for him to take a title despite his inconsistency. I totally agree on Dovi though and would be surprised if he doesn’t leave the second round in Austria leading the championship.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

bikermike wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:42 pm
It was the window wot dunnit apparently

https://www.crash.net/motogp/news/94114 ... was-broken

One to rank with Dave Beasant and the salad cream...
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... adfoot-egg
Haha.. I have to be honest, I wonder why the biking press is reporting this with anything less than the scorn it deserves.

Probably the most ridiculous thing I have read since John Kocinski blamed a fish on him crashing at that one GP (I forget which - only remember that apparently it was 100 miles to the nearest body of water)

And then Puig blaming the doctors for not telling him he could not ride is a new type of low, in my book.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

John Kocinski blamed a fish
I'd tried looking that one up, couldn't find it ;)

We are making the assumption that if the rider doesn't win the world championship this year then they wont as MM will win every year until he does a Doohan type retirement. Whether that's true or not we will know in 10 years or so. I do think that is the case for Dovi as he's not getting any younger
Last edited by Mikesbytes on Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Hah.. I will have to have a think where I read it. It was possibly in a rider biography. I've had a search too and couldn't find any mention online (although did find lots of other interesting stories about Kocinski - he was definitely a character!) But the story of him crashing, if I can recall, was that there was a fish lying on the inner apex of the corner as he came round it. It put him off, and he crashed..

Definitely good point about Marc. I did always think he would be unlikely to have a career lasting well into his 30s, just because of the way he rides and is prepared to roll the dice. And actually his approach to injury, as shown in Jerez 2, won't help with that - thinking of the riders who had a career cut short from being injured while already injured.

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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:11 am
John Kocinski blamed a fish
I'd tried looking that one up, couldn't find it ;)
Just disappeared down a massive internet rabbithole trying to find what race it was. Someone in another forum had mentioned Donington so I looked through all the years he raced there and no mention in any of the 500cc race reports (which surely - fish on track - you'd expect), so wonder if it was during his 250cc years which have a lot less information online now.

He definitely seemed like a character anyway, even if the story is a bit.... errrr, "fishy".

Image

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

As far as bad days to, this was a good day for Fabio.

And Petronas took a lot of points home as well.

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bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

Quatararo definitely had a very good bad day at the office.

I do suspect that Dovi's title chances are slipping now. To lose ground at a ducati track is not good.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

bikermike wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:45 am
Quatararo definitely had a very good bad day at the office.

I do suspect that Dovi's title chances are slipping now. To lose ground at a ducati track is not good.
I think he was lucky that his main competitors for the championship had even worse days. Though, it's still early enough that other riders could become his main competitors for the championship.
bikermike wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:45 am
I do suspect that Dovi's title chances are slipping now. To lose ground at a ducati track is not good.
Given how badly all the 2020 Ducatis did, is this still a Ducati track?

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