2020 world championship prediction

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:05 am
As discussed the strategy of getting its world championships from Marc Marquez has worked, however they have tried to adapt the bike to other riders as can be seen in Pedrosa getting a different exhaust to Marquez to give the bike a slightly different tuning. It's also been seen that Marquez and Crutchlow give similar feedback on the bike but I do wonder if we are getting a bit of the Honda engineers knowing better than the riders and then producing a bike that only Marquez has the skills to ride around the problems
From what I understand, Marquez does want a bike that’s easier to ride but not at the expense of speed. I’ve been wondering what that actually means though. If we assumed that from a purely statistical/data/engineering POV the Honda is the best bike on the grid but in the real world it is the hardest to ride and/or the worst on the grid depending on your POV. Then we could say that despite seeming to win in spite of the Honda, the bike is in fact contributing greatly to his consistency and speed but he is the only rider on the grid who is able to push the Honda to the point where it is a better bike than the others.

Like saying X tyres are the best. You chuck and can’t feel anything, are slow, don’t feel like you have much grip etc. only to find out the reason why you couldn’t get the best out of the tyres is because you’re too slow to get them to optimal working conditions.

p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

With Mir and Rins mostly fully fit now, I think Suzuki has a serious shot at winning the teams championship. Only 1 point behind Ducati, 16 Yamaha and 27 Petronas. I’d expect them to be in front of the factory Ducati team by 15 or so points by the end of this round. I think Mir and Rins can consistently out score the 2 guys on factory Yamahas and the 2 at Petronas enough to close the gap by the end of the season. If Yamaha does run into Engine trouble the longer the season goes they’ll likely fly past them in the standings. Would be excellent for the series if Suzuki took home the teams championship.

p4p1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by p4p1 »

I think Mir might be or should be the new championship favourite. He’s showing the most consistency so far and this year that’s what is going to win the championship. He will only be 12 or so points down at the end of this race and unless something changes drastically I think he will get more points for the rest of the season than Dovi.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

p4p1 wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:18 pm
I think Mir might be or should be the new championship favourite. He’s showing the most consistency so far and this year that’s what is going to win the championship. He will only be 12 or so points down at the end of this race and unless something changes drastically I think he will get more points for the rest of the season than Dovi.
And, after the race, he's four points down.

I haven't done the sums yet. But, I would guess that Mir has scored the most points in the last four races.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Dovi continues to show consistency but not high enough up the results ladder. Miller despite having a mechanical is still only 20 points off the leader. I was thinking that Bagnaia would be joining the bottom end of the championship fight when he takes away the 25 points from this race but even if he hadn't dropped it, he would of still been a long way off.

BTY the leader in the championship has averaged 14 points per race, that's got to be the lowest we have seen since the current points system was put in place perhaps.
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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

I still have Quartararo as the favourite. He is more consistent than Vinales and much better in Q than the Mir/Suzuki combo. Dovi is limited by his own form and the luck of others.

Barcelona will be very interesting though. It has the longest straight of the season so far and there will be no way for Yamaha to hide when in close battles. So Dovi should at least be closer to the top 5.

Should Ducati consider team orders with Peco, Miller and Dovi already?

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

CLX the problem for Quartararo is that (to use an American phrase) he doesn't have "Uncle Mo" on his side (momentum).
After the 2 wins at Jerez his results have got worse for each race, although yesterday he halted that slide and was unlucky not to be on the podium.
The problem is for him that he seems to be able to set a blistering pace in practice that makes you think he will win the race by 8 seconds, but then can't match it in the race for whatever reason.
Next weekend is going to be interesting for sure, if he can try and reverse that momentum (or steal a bit from Mir)

Dovi is still in 1st but he is going to need to step up results, he won't win a WC with 8th/9th place results each race (which really again was a fortunate position as so many riders in front of him crashed out). Ducati should be pulling out all the stops to try and help easily their best WC chance since 2008, but the upper management are showing every sign of f*cking up so who knows?
Mikesbytes wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:12 am
BTY the leader in the championship has averaged 14 points per race, that's got to be the lowest we have seen since the current points system was put in place perhaps.
The only season (in GPs) that I think even comes close to this might 99 or 00 (at least in the 'modern' era) I will have to check. The thing is back then you had a lot more machine disparity so someone having a bad day would be 3rd or 4th (rather than 8th or 9th) even though you had lots of different winners and podium results.

jimv
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by jimv »

Its worth looking at the upcoming tracks and how they suit each bike. Leaving out Marquez (he won at all these tracks save Algarve last year),

2019 top 5 results-
Catalunya - Yam(FQ), Duc(Petrux), Suz(Rins), Duc(Miller)
LeMans - Duc(Dovi), Duc(Petrux), Duc(Miller), Yam(Rossi)
Aragon x2 - Duc(Dovi), Duc(Miller), Yam(Vinales), Yam(FQ)
Valencia x2 - Yam(FQ), Duc(Miller), Duc(Dovi), Suz(Rins)
Algarve - ??


Some good tracks for Dovi and FQ coming up, but other Duc and Yam riders will certainly be playing at the front. And the Suz and KTM are at the sharp end as well. I am excited to watch it play out!

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Barcelona had the huge Lorenzo wipe out last season which was the best he ever did to help Marquez win that title.

I have tried to predict Barcelona in my head and see where the title battle will go, but it’s near impossible. KTM might dominate and squeeze the title battle even more. Or the wrong Ducati might win while Yamahas ane Dovi drag themselves to a top 10.

I do expect that huge main straight to be a massive headache for all Yamahas.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Right, Quartararo doesn’t have much momentum. Mir and Bagnaia actually have the most.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

jimv wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:58 pm
Its worth looking at the upcoming tracks and how they suit each bike. Leaving out Marquez (he won at all these tracks save Algarve last year),

2019 top 5 results-
Catalunya - Yam(FQ), Duc(Petrux), Suz(Rins), Duc(Miller)
LeMans - Duc(Dovi), Duc(Petrux), Duc(Miller), Yam(Rossi)
Aragon x2 - Duc(Dovi), Duc(Miller), Yam(Vinales), Yam(FQ)
Valencia x2 - Yam(FQ), Duc(Miller), Duc(Dovi), Suz(Rins)
Algarve - ??


Some good tracks for Dovi and FQ coming up, but other Duc and Yam riders will certainly be playing at the front. And the Suz and KTM are at the sharp end as well. I am excited to watch it play out!
That looks pretty even between Ducati and Yamaha over the next 6 races, perhaps the Ducati has a slight advantage but not much. Mir is doing better on the Suzuki this year and the Suzuki has some similarities to the Yamaha, just to make it even more competitive
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kenup283
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by kenup283 »

looking at the remaining tracks I think more of those have been recently resurfaced than not which may tip the scales in favor towards yamaha, or even suzuki. Interested to see how KTM gets on at LeMans, and really looking fwd to Portugal.

Really surprised to see it but not sure why I am, that Dovi is leading the championship (albeit ever so slightly). I was worried about him riding around with unemployed on his leathers last time out, but seeing as he's still leading the championship afterwards it got the point across without opening the door for any tweets from Mgmt. He just seems to find a way to be there. Hoping he finds that extra little bit to take this one.

The mention of past points avgs, had me go back and repost this chart below. I have a bar where 3rd place points are, so can see years even as points changed where that mark was. Also threw in a couple others that I will be updating after 2020 is said and done :)

Image

Image

Image

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

I definitely agree that Mir is looking the most 'world champion' like, in terms of his consistency. Really the only one in fact.

But I still wonder if Ducati/Dovi can turn a corner and get the bike and tyre combination working (the new Michelin apparently being the sticking point - quite literally). If he can start turning those 7/8th places into 3/4th every race then he is well positioned.
Although I am torn between wanting Dovi to get it (as he probably won't get many better chances) and Ducati (at least the senior mgmt) not deserving it as their people management has been so p*ss poor!

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

I don’t know where to post this.

This night I dreamt Max Oxley, Dovi and I were walking to Dovi’s retirement party in Brasilia (my hometown). Dovi said he was proud of hismelf and how he was Marquez’s main rival for 3 years. He said 2017, 2018 and 2019 were all equally important and I said “admit you have a facourite kid, lol”. I told Dovi Motegi 2017 was one of the most fantastic races I had ever watched in my life and he smirked. Dovi dispapeared when we got to the party. Mat and I had beers and then Marquez appeared saying he was still tyring to recover for 2021. He had switched his whole diet to favour anti-inflamatory foods and showed me he was eating a 12 eggs and day (that ‘skin’ between the egg and the shell when it’s boiled is highly effective and nutritional).

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

There's 6 rounds left. If we were to say that to win a rider would achieve no more than an average of 5 points per race more than the current leader, who has 108 points, then that would leave us with 4 riders - Quartararo, Mir, Vinales and Dovi. An average of 6 points per race would add Morbidelli, Miller and Nakagami. Next level down is Rins who is a whopping 48 points behind, ie an average of 8 points per race.

Back to the top 4 we have Mir and Dovi who are consistent vs Quartararo and Vinales who are up and down
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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

CLX wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:43 pm
This night I dreamt Max Oxley, Dovi and I...
I'm curious to know if this is the first time you have dreamed about Mat Oxley


Obviously the problem with looking at figures and statistics in 2020, is that random curveballs are not the exception! Having said that, in any other year I'd entirely agree with Mikesbytes and probably conclude that although my heart is for a (final? end of career?) win for Dovi, it is much more likely to be likely to be Quartararo or Mir, and based on overall performance this year - Mir.

So many others have trumpeted his arrival, and I really didn't see it, so I'm (pleasantly) surprised to find him in the number two position at this point in the season. Perhaps NOT having a win the whole season could even be what drives him to the top step of the championship, especially when so many other riders have taken a race win and then bombed out in the next one (thinking about that other thread on mindset, mental space and motivations).

Glad to have this one season without 93, looking forward to one with him next year.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

I think it's between Mir and Quartararo. I don't think this will be an uncommon prediction.

If it is either of them, then the championship will be won by a rider who never won a MotoGP race before their championship year.

If Mir continues scoring well but not winning races, then we could have a MotoGP champion who still hasn't won a MotoGP race, and hasn't won a Moto2 race either.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

If I remember correctly there was a year where Doohan was 50 points behind Beattie and Doohan won as Beattie got injured. A similar example points wise is Rins being 48 points behind Quartararo - 2 wins in a row for Rins combined with 2 DNF's for Quartararo and Rins is 2 points ahead of Quartararo however this Rins/Quartararo scenario doesn't map to the Doohan/Beattie scenario because between them points wise is Mir, Dovi, Morbidelli, Miller and Nakagami and some of them will take a decent points haul in those 2 races

In regards to each rider;
Quartararo - needs better consistency
Mir - needs to be higher up in the race early on
Dovi - needs to finish higher up
Vinales - needs better consistency, be better at overtaking
Miller - better tyre management
Morbidelli - needs better consistency
Nakagami - ? Hard to fault considering he's riding a 2019 Honda

BTY I get the feeling that Yamaha have solved their engine problems by whatever method they did however some of them have already used all of their engines. Could this be another factor that would point the championship towards Mir and/or Dovi?
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:14 am
In regards to each rider;
Quartararo - needs better consistency
Mir - needs to be higher up in the race early on
It would help Mir if he was higher up in the race early on. However, he's doing ample to win the championship. We were posting about after six races he'd scored more in the last three races than anyone. It's now even more so, and he has scored more than any other rider in the last five races.

Quartararo won the last race, but I still think that Mir's 2nd is a stronger indication of who is winning overall in the championship. Clearly if Quaratarao has turned a corner and can keep banging in the wins, then he'll win. But, look at Vinales in the last two races.

So: I don't think that Mir needs to change anything. He just needs to keep on what he is doing.

hdot
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by hdot »

I hate using like 3-4 races to extrapolate a championship but if Mir maintains his consistency gap I think he will be a shoe-in, even without a win

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

The danger for Mir is for what happened to Dovi in Catalunya to happen to him; namely poor qualifying puts you mid-pack, and then you get taken out in an incident. Think that is really what happened to Rossi in the 2006 season etc.

I think if he does get his QP sorted, given his race pace, the rest are in serious trouble.

Dovi - needs to sort out the rear tyre/turning issue, but also from what I have read the atmosphere in the garage is poison. Even affecting Petrucci, who is on the other side and usually the most relaxed and affable character. That could ultimately be what costs Dovi this year. Such a shame for both Ducati and Dovi.
Vinales - Sports psychologist? I honestly don't know what the answer is. But, you don't win a WC finishing 9th and the DNFs will cost him.
Quartararo - Really, really important result last race. Not just the win, but it reversed his downward momentum at a track he 'should' have won at (giving his favour for the track and last years result). He put the bike first over the line, has the 25pts, now he has another big pressure weekend in France that I think might show us if he can be WC this year.
Miller - As Mikesbytes has said I just can't see it without the improvement of tyre management.
Morbidelli - His DNFs arguably not his fault, and poor result in Misano 2 was due to illness and A Espargaro almost knocking him off, contrast with Rossi's 'unforced' DNFs. I wouldn't put him as favourite but I think in 3rd behind FQ and JM if either of those two stumble.
Nakagami - I wouldn't be that surprised if he gets a podium or even a race win this year. His pace at the end of Catalunya was electric, but he lost too much time in early laps. He has a massive improvement from weekend 1 to weekend 2 at the same track. But, again I don't think really a WC contender unless there is carnage.
Rins - Just not consistent enough I'm afraid - I worry that he is destined to be the Kevin Schwantz of this generation (not only because he rides a Suzuki and style looks a bit similar) but he needs the consistency to match with his prestigious talent (I am aware Schwantz got a WC though so who knows? :) )

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Antipodean wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 8:52 am
CLX wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:43 pm
This night I dreamt Max Oxley, Dovi and I...
I'm curious to know if this is the first time you have dreamed about Mat Oxley


Yeps

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

:D

Quartararo on the place-holder cover for the Motorcourse annual for this year, if that's any indication of a bet! :) (Or Mike Scott's guess perhaps?)

(They always have the GP world champion on the cover)

Schwantz34
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Schwantz34 »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:50 pm
The danger for Mir is for what happened to Dovi in Catalunya to happen to him; namely poor qualifying puts you mid-pack, and then you get taken out in an incident. Think that is really what happened to Rossi in the 2006 season etc.

I think if he does get his QP sorted, given his race pace, the rest are in serious trouble.

Dovi - needs to sort out the rear tyre/turning issue, but also from what I have read the atmosphere in the garage is poison. Even affecting Petrucci, who is on the other side and usually the most relaxed and affable character. That could ultimately be what costs Dovi this year. Such a shame for both Ducati and Dovi.
Vinales - Sports psychologist? I honestly don't know what the answer is. But, you don't win a WC finishing 9th and the DNFs will cost him.
Quartararo - Really, really important result last race. Not just the win, but it reversed his downward momentum at a track he 'should' have won at (giving his favour for the track and last years result). He put the bike first over the line, has the 25pts, now he has another big pressure weekend in France that I think might show us if he can be WC this year.
Miller - As Mikesbytes has said I just can't see it without the improvement of tyre management.
Morbidelli - His DNFs arguably not his fault, and poor result in Misano 2 was due to illness and A Espargaro almost knocking him off, contrast with Rossi's 'unforced' DNFs. I wouldn't put him as favourite but I think in 3rd behind FQ and JM if either of those two stumble.
Nakagami - I wouldn't be that surprised if he gets a podium or even a race win this year. His pace at the end of Catalunya was electric, but he lost too much time in early laps. He has a massive improvement from weekend 1 to weekend 2 at the same track. But, again I don't think really a WC contender unless there is carnage.
Rins - Just not consistent enough I'm afraid - I worry that he is destined to be the Kevin Schwantz of this generation (not only because he rides a Suzuki and style looks a bit similar) but he needs the consistency to match with his prestigious talent (I am aware Schwantz got a WC though so who knows? :) )
Agree with lots of this but I wouldn't feel sorry for Ducati if Dovi doesn't do it. I'd be gutted for him though as he seems like such a down to earth good guy although who knows what goes down behind closed doors!!

Still put money on Dovi being the good guy and Ducati being w@nkers 😃

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes I think so too. Stoner, Lorenzo, now Dovi - think it has to be Ducati, it can't be everyone else!

Rossi in his biography (written before he went to Ducati) said that he didn't want to ride for them because they were too much like Honda. Really officious senior management "you will ride our bike and win on it, if you win it's because of how good our bike is" (or words to that effect). Yamaha by contrast said "please will you ride for us? We'll do what it takes to help you win." Colin Edwards said the same thing.
Although Rossi then seemingly forgot his own advice and what he had said in the biography.. :?

It doesn't help now when you have the CEO tweeting a congratulations to Bagnaia on his podium "well done Pecco, shows what you can do when you ride the bike properly" (words to that effect) when your lead factory rider has just taken 1st place in the championship. You could not make it up..

Like you say you have to really feel sorry for Dovi, always the bridesmaid and all that (what will be worse in some ways is if he finishes second again this year with no Marc...)

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