2020 world championship prediction

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Championship riders by brand
Yamaha - While it could of been predicted that Quartararo would be leading a more likely prediction would of been Vinales but with 2 DNF's that would be difficult.
Ducati - No surprises that Dovi is leading but Miller seems to have the potential to dislodge him, just needs more consistency
Honda - If you told me that Nakagami would be leading I would of asked you what you were smoking but injury has seen to no results for their main rider and poor results for their main satellite rider. I would of thought that Alex Marquez would of done better than he has so far, looks like it will be a protracted learning curve and Bradl is showing why he is a test rider and not a GP racer.
Suzuki - Mir in front of Rins. Didn't anticipate that
KTM - I had assumed it would be Pol and then no one, however we have seen that KTM is a new beast and combined with Pol having some offs has let Binder then Oliveira in front of him
Aprilia - Aleix. With Iannone missing Smith is showing he isn't as good as Aleix - no surprises there
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes Yamaha seem to be self-destructing big time at the moment they had the window open to go for the WC.
Their only saving grace is that no-one else has so far grabbed the title with both hands or looks consistently strong, and Dovi is having the worst year as well at the wrong time.
I think Mir has definitely stepped up (I don't think it's appreciated how badly he got injured at Brno last year and how protracted his comeback was) but I think Rins being injured means we can't quite get a true impression of who is their lead rider.
Although actually if Rins/Mir can stay consistent I wouldn't put the WC past either of them!

6 races in and top *9 riders* covered by 27 points - absolutely mental but isn't it great not knowing who is going out in front after the next few rounds? As much as I love watching Marc ride, normally he would be at least a race win out in front by now and we would be talking about who is going to get 2nd.

I still feel as well we have a lot of surprises coming. Something like Nakagami gets a couple of strong results, moves into 1st place in the WC and then rest of the races cancelled due to Covid and becomes 1st Japanese premier category WC :? ;)

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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As reported in the Yamaha engines thread that there will be pit lane starts, its sounding like that a world championship for Yamaha is unlikely
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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:25 am
As reported in the Yamaha engines thread that there will be pit lane starts, its sounding like that a world championship for Yamaha is unlikely
If Ducati don't win this championship with both Honda and Yamaha seemingly out for the count, then that'll say something. (The results of the next race could change things of course.)

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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Is anyone thinking at this point perhaps a small bet on either of the Suzuki riders? :)

If Mir hadn't been taken out by Lecuono in Jerez 2 (was it?) and then that red flag in Austria 2 he would be pretty close to the top now.

Know it's 'ifs, buts and maybes' but might not be a bad bet on the grounds that he has used up his bad luck portion for the year!

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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Exactly, it's been so variable that you can't really count any of the top 10 or so. The word "prediction" in the title to this thread is almost wrong
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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Anyone? :D

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Antipodean
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Antipodean »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:54 am
Anyone? :D
:lol:

Lol right now that could either be a question - or your prediction.

Better off pulling a name from a hat than trying to guess race results at the moment. Bradley is a pretty good bet to bin it though.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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If a rider in the leading group could start consistently finishing in the top 5 with the occasional podium, they may win it.

bikermike
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by bikermike »

It's interesting that Dovi is now leading. With so many winners, the big gap for points between first and second is not being kept in one place. Consistency is going to be thing. It's not so much how often the rider finishes first, but how often they don't finish worse than say, 5th.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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After 6 races Dovi is in the lead but is way lower on points compared to last year after 6 races. 9th place is within beating Dovi with a win a and Dovi DNF'ing. Of course its never that simple
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Yes one race win down to 9th place!

Incredible, I can't remember it ever being so close.

Claudio Dominicalli just did the most hilariously passive-aggressive tweet about the race, "Congratulation to Bagnaia who has shown what the bike can achieve when you hang off the side of the bike and ride with that style" (inference: other riders, Dovi for instance, are not doing that)
Final sentence: "Oh and congratulations to Dovi for 1st place in the WC" :D

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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It looks as if Ducati are choosing which basket they are going to put their eggs in.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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I suppose better than HRC literally putting any and all of their eggs in one basket and then going "oh sh!t!" when that basket drops on the floor.

Last in the constructors championship. Have to let that sink in..

Listening to a podcast where, reading between lines, apparently some dissatisfaction from sponsors with Repsol/HRC.. (who are paying an awful lot of money for not much at the moment)

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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Honda is beating Aprilia in the constructor championship but that's thanks to Nakagami who appears to have provided all of the 53 constructor points on a 2019 bike. Teams we see LCR 8th and Repsol 11th ie last.
Last edited by Mikesbytes on Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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Ah thanks for the correction Mike - last in the teams championship rather than constructor.

hdot
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by hdot »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:58 pm
I suppose better than HRC literally putting any and all of their eggs in one basket and then going "oh sh!t!" when that basket drops on the floor.

Last in the constructors championship. Have to let that sink in..

Listening to a podcast where, reading between lines, apparently some dissatisfaction from sponsors with Repsol/HRC.. (who are paying an awful lot of money for not much at the moment)
Mmmm.... which podcast? And yea, that dissatisfaction is understandable.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

That strategy has resulted in them winning the rider's championship six times in the last seven years. OK, so they're not going to win this year. But, I'm not sure that the strategy was that bad.

It's also won them the constructor's championship eight times in the last nine years.

mastercraftx1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by mastercraftx1 »

Definitely hard to make any predictions. Things seem to change all the time. Looking at all the scores each round so far here's a few things that stand out.

Dovi only rider in the top 8 that has scored every round (Nakagami only other rider to score every round)
Mir has 2 dnf's but his other 4 finishes are all top 5!
Rossi one dnf, 4 top 5's, one top 10.
Fabio and Vinales have only been in the top 5 twice. Crazy to think that after the way they dominated the first 2 rounds. (Goes to show all it takes is a couple big points hauls and all the rest small and they're still in the mx.)

If Dovi gets a bit better result this weekend, he should be in really good shape with 2 Aragon rounds coming up. He placed 2nd the past 2 years. Although nothing is going as usual this year.

Mir could be a serious threat if he can avoid more dnf's.

If Rossi just keeps doing what he's been doing and maybe picking up a few podiums, he'll be right in the mix at the end.

Franco would be way up the points table if hadn't been for the mechanical and the crash with Zarco.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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mastercraftx1 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:00 am
Mir has 2 dnf's but his other 4 finishes are all top 5!
...
Mir could be a serious threat if he can avoid more dnf's.
Mir has, I believe, scored more points than anyone else over the last three races (out of six).

mastercraftx1
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by mastercraftx1 »

Yes for sure Mir has scored the most points in the last 3 races. That's even with the 4th place that could have been a win if it weren't for the red flag.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Mat Oxley was saying in an article, if you were a betting person, Mir might not be a bad way to go.

I would definitely say he has a chance, and put him in 'upper tier' of probability along with Dovi (I'm afraid of saying anyone else :D ) but God no I wouldn't bet any money on this year's result!
Fingernails wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:19 pm
That strategy has resulted in them winning the rider's championship six times in the last seven years. OK, so they're not going to win this year. But, I'm not sure that the strategy was that bad.

It's also won them the constructor's championship eight times in the last nine years.
I'm just thinking back to when Rossi left HRC and one reason he gave was that HRC always said that anyone would win on their bike, and diminished his role as a rider.
They were the same after Doohan retired.
At least, in both 1999 and 2004 there were other riders (and WC challengers) that won multiple races that showed the bike was competitive even after losing their golden goose.

In 2020 Marc's injury has shown where the bike really is in the pecking order. I think two things will be hurting at HRC right now: First, that we are 6 races into the year and no podium. Secondly, that it really does look like it was Marc, and not Honda, that are producing the results and (the 2020 bike at least) is possibly one of the least competitive bikes on the grid.

So you're right their strategy of getting rider World Championships has worked over recent years, but I'm trying to tie this into what HRC's conception, and extremely egotistical view of themselves, will be. It might not have led to murder and a policy/upper management guy being dumped in Tokyo harbour, but I bet there are a lot of red faces and hard meetings taking place right now. Perhaps because of their success, and the talent of Marc, they've backed themselves into a corner.
hdot wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:07 pm
MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:58 pm
I suppose better than HRC literally putting any and all of their eggs in one basket and then going "oh sh!t!" when that basket drops on the floor.

Last in the constructors championship. Have to let that sink in..

Listening to a podcast where, reading between lines, apparently some dissatisfaction from sponsors with Repsol/HRC.. (who are paying an awful lot of money for not much at the moment)
Mmmm.... which podcast? And yea, that dissatisfaction is understandable.
The Race, think it was the latest one.

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Fingernails
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:30 am
I'm just thinking back to when Rossi left HRC and one reason he gave was that HRC always said that anyone would win on their bike, and diminished his role as a rider.
They were the same after Doohan retired.
At least, in both 1999 and 2004 there were other riders (and WC challengers) that won multiple races that showed the bike was competitive even after losing their golden goose.

In 2020 Marc's injury has shown where the bike really is in the pecking order. I think two things will be hurting at HRC right now: First, that we are 6 races into the year and no podium. Secondly, that it really does look like it was Marc, and not Honda, that are producing the results and (the 2020 bike at least) is possibly one of the least competitive bikes on the grid.
I've read that a championship winning bike will often (but, it seems not always) be difficult to ride. As it will have the envelope pushed in a number of areas. It could be that given they had Marc, the Honda as was was the best championship winning bike they could produce. And it was done so to maximise speed based on what Marc could do with it.

It could be a tough choice - do you make a bike that everyone can ride but which comes 2nd or 3rd in the championship a lot (Yamaha) or something that only Marc can ride but which allows you to dominate.

I remember others having quite some difficulty on Ducatis that Stoner won races and a championship on.

However, in terms of the public image of the company (Honda), it's going to be the opinion of the majority of the public that matters, rather than the small minority that follows MotoGP in considerable detail. And, people may have short memories.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

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As discussed the strategy of getting its world championships from Marc Marquez has worked, however they have tried to adapt the bike to other riders as can be seen in Pedrosa getting a different exhaust to Marquez to give the bike a slightly different tuning. It's also been seen that Marquez and Crutchlow give similar feedback on the bike but I do wonder if we are getting a bit of the Honda engineers knowing better than the riders and then producing a bike that only Marquez has the skills to ride around the problems
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Fingernails wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:14 am
MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:30 am
I'm just thinking back to when Rossi left HRC and one reason he gave was that HRC always said that anyone would win on their bike, and diminished his role as a rider.
They were the same after Doohan retired.
At least, in both 1999 and 2004 there were other riders (and WC challengers) that won multiple races that showed the bike was competitive even after losing their golden goose.

In 2020 Marc's injury has shown where the bike really is in the pecking order. I think two things will be hurting at HRC right now: First, that we are 6 races into the year and no podium. Secondly, that it really does look like it was Marc, and not Honda, that are producing the results and (the 2020 bike at least) is possibly one of the least competitive bikes on the grid.
I've read that a championship winning bike will often (but, it seems not always) be difficult to ride. As it will have the envelope pushed in a number of areas. It could be that given they had Marc, the Honda as was was the best championship winning bike they could produce. And it was done so to maximise speed based on what Marc could do with it.

It could be a tough choice - do you make a bike that everyone can ride but which comes 2nd or 3rd in the championship a lot (Yamaha) or something that only Marc can ride but which allows you to dominate.

I remember others having quite some difficulty on Ducatis that Stoner won races and a championship on.

However, in terms of the public image of the company (Honda), it's going to be the opinion of the majority of the public that matters, rather than the small minority that follows MotoGP in considerable detail. And, people may have short memories.
Definitely a similar comparison I think with Ducati/Stoner and Honda/Marquez. When you have an exceptionally talented rider on the bike they can paper over the cracks. I think Ducati genuinely built a WC winning bike in 2007 which then progressively lost its edge (or else, its rivals caught up, especially with power/top speed) through the rest of the 800 era. Stoner was good enough that he could make up for the shortfall, but look what happened when other riders tried to take his place..

I'm not sure about WC winning bikes always being difficult to ride. Pre-Marc (1-10 years BM - Before Marquez :D ) Yamaha won a lot of those titles and they've famously always tried to engineer a bike that's easy to ride. Kenny Roberts Jr won with a bike that was very manageable but had notable top-speed deficit on the other riders (think actually Suzuki are still kind of in that place, and are strong contenders this year).
Honda have always prioritised horsepower and top speed over other considerations which again has caused them problems in the past (their last 'really bad' season in 2000 was after Doohan had left, Criville took over direction and wasn't able to resist the HRC engineers when they produced a more powerful but less rideable bike).

As for Honda being worried about losing (and perception by the public).. I can't think of any company to whom it would matter more! All the quotes from Sochihiro Honda about excellence through competition etc.. It's in their DNA, which is why they spend more than any other company doing it.

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