2020 world championship prediction

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Fun crazy race.

Before the weekend I had Morbidelli as a crazy dark horse, but that is gone now. Likewise for Viñales. The points scenario didn’t change that much for him, but with a race less to go it gets harder and today was another example of him not being able to deal with curve balls or be opportunistic as others have bad days.

Dovi got a lifeline. I think his chances are slim at best but winter racing might mean more bad weather and he is perfectly equipped to deal with it.

Mir got lucky, a bone dry regular race would have surely put a lot more bikes between Quartararo and him.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

I did not think of Miller as a contender, but damn what bad luck. He should have a lore more points and possibly challenge Dovi for top Ducati honours.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

CLX wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:45 am
I did not think of Miller as a contender, but damn what bad luck. He should have a lore more points and possibly challenge Dovi for top Ducati honours.
The bad luck happened before the race, that bike had produced an engine problem before the race and he was due to go out on the other bike but the sudden change to wet meant there was insufficient time to change the other bike from dry to wet so he went out on the bike with the faulty engine and hoped for the best. I was thinking that when he was sitting behind Dovi that he was conserving his tyre but perhaps he was trying to conserve his engine
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kenup283
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by kenup283 »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:41 pm
Yes I think so too. Stoner, Lorenzo, now Dovi - think it has to be Ducati, it can't be everyone else!

Rossi in his biography (written before he went to Ducati) said that he didn't want to ride for them because they were too much like Honda. Really officious senior management "you will ride our bike and win on it, if you win it's because of how good our bike is" (or words to that effect). Yamaha by contrast said "please will you ride for us? We'll do what it takes to help you win." Colin Edwards said the same thing.
Although Rossi then seemingly forgot his own advice and what he had said in the biography.. :?

It doesn't help now when you have the CEO tweeting a congratulations to Bagnaia on his podium "well done Pecco, shows what you can do when you ride the bike properly" (words to that effect) when your lead factory rider has just taken 1st place in the championship. You could not make it up..
I recall reading that in Rossis book too, and had that same thoughts about his forgetting it.. As for within Ducati I think we're talking about a close connection been a CEO who's a mechanical engineer and is very close to the historical development of the machine itself. Copied below some positions he'd had along the way. I would venture not easy to accept if what you've done personally has been wrong. Mix in some Italian drama and might explain some of it.

1994, he was made Ducati design department manager
1997, deputy technical manager
1999, manager of ­Ducati Corse—the racing department, which has employed as much as 25 percent of total Ducati staff.
2005 he was made R&D director
2009, general manager of operations and product development. Three years later, he joined the board of directors;
2013, he became CEO.

https://www.cycleworld.com/ducati-ceo-c ... omenicali/

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Ah that's really interesting to know Kenup.

That doesn't surprise me actually. Anecdotally, I don't think technical/engineering people always make particularly good people managers. I work in the nuclear industry and some years ago my place of work decided to start putting people into mgmt positions based on their technical and scientific knowledge (and pay level basically). To paint a picture, the engineering and science departments are a lot of guys walking around in shorts with sandals and pony tails, that spend most of their days working out chemical mixes and radioactive decay rates for the inside of reactors (so extremely smart people that are on a different plane of existence to most of us mentally). They were made managers and the result was an unmitigated disaster that was reversed very quickly after people started leaving the company in droves.

I think Ducati did really well before having Livio Suppo who I think was a great people manager and managed to look after Stoner both at Ducati and later at Honda. Dovi by contrast seems a much more laid back and amicable person, and probably quite reasonable, but they have completely managed to f*** it up when they would have had a real chance at the title this year.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:55 am
CLX wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:45 am
I did not think of Miller as a contender, but damn what bad luck. He should have a lore more points and possibly challenge Dovi for top Ducati honours.
The bad luck happened before the race, that bike had produced an engine problem before the race and he was due to go out on the other bike but the sudden change to wet meant there was insufficient time to change the other bike from dry to wet so he went out on the bike with the faulty engine and hoped for the best. I was thinking that when he was sitting behind Dovi that he was conserving his tyre but perhaps he was trying to conserve his engine
That is called Destiny.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Second mechanical DNF for that team this year and a massive blow for Miller who was in WC contention.. I know they are getting factory support these days and I think are much better off financially than they used to be, back in the D'Antin days, but there was a reason they used to be called 'Primark Ducati' (obviously some of that is still hanging about..)

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:33 am
Second mechanical DNF for that team this year and a massive blow for Miller who was in WC contention.. I know they are getting factory support these days and I think are much better off financially than they used to be, back in the D'Antin days, but there was a reason they used to be called 'Primark Ducati' (obviously some of that is still hanging about..)
Yeh Miller is now 40 points behind in the championship. Short of 2 wins in a row that will be difficult to recover from. Sometimes we get a world champion who didn't win a race, with Nagakami we can go one step further as Nagakami is in 5th place 24 points off the leader having not been on the podium :D
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Thought it would be funny to show which riders can still technically win the WC, with 100pts still in play..

Dovi just keeps managing to stay in there doesn't he. Awful, awful weekend and garage storm-out and still manages to close in pts on 1st place. I'm still not convinced he has the pace though. Vinales looked like he had made a step up by finishing top Yamaha and getting a good start. Quartararo needs to bounce back for Aragon 2 or risk losing momentum again.

1 Joan MIR Suzuki SPA 121
2 Fabio QUARTARARO Yamaha FRA 115
3 Maverick VIÑALES Yamaha SPA 109
4 Andrea DOVIZIOSO Ducati ITA 106
5 Takaaki NAKAGAMI Honda JPN 92
6 Franco MORBIDELLI Yamaha ITA 87
7 Alex RINS Suzuki SPA 85
8 Jack MILLER Ducati AUS 82
9 Pol ESPARGARO KTM SPA 77
10 Miguel OLIVEIRA KTM POR 69
11 Brad BINDER KTM RSA 67
12 Alex MARQUEZ Honda SPA 67
13 Danilo PETRUCCI Ducati ITA 65
14 Valentino ROSSI Yamaha ITA 58
15 Johann ZARCO Ducati FRA 53
16 Francesco BAGNAIA Ducati ITA 42
17 Aleix ESPARGARO Aprilia SPA 27
18 Cal CRUTCHLOW Honda GBR 21

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Dovi winning would be the largest middle finger ever. And the awkwardness.

I am surprised Maverick has been able to hang in for so long.

If only Mir could steal a win and build a cushion... but I still feel Quartararo will take it even if he has to sweat much more than I expected before.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

CLX wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:31 pm
Dovi winning would be the largest middle finger ever. And the awkwardness.

I am surprised Maverick has been able to hang in for so long.

If only Mir could steal a win and build a cushion... but I still feel Quartararo will take it even if he has to sweat much more than I expected before.
Maverick is only 12 points behind the lead. With four races to go, he must be a strong candidate. It only takes FQ and JM to collide and MV could be way in the lead. Well, 13 points in the lead.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Yeh the points gap between the top 4 is only 15 points. With not that many races left its too close to make a prediction. For example if this Sunday Mir, Vinales and Quartararo DNF'ed and Dovi took 3rd, then Dovi would be in the lead. Yes that would be an unusual outcome for that race
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

I still think Dovi has got those handling issues and can't get the 2020 tyre to work with the bike. But he has managed to hang in there, and if we have a couple of weekends with rubbish weather in Valencia (which is a possibility) then he could win it.

Quartararo I think will either win or lose spectacularly. The problem for him is Mir's consistency, which looking at it historically is often the deciding factor rather than out-right speed.

Fingernals - yep maybe Vinales could do it. Remember when he got the Moto3 title in 2013? He was probably third favourite behind Rins and Salom and had just hung in there, pressure was off him a bit and he pulled off a stand-out race and won the title...

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

I'm going to go out on a limb, unless Dovi turns it around to today, then I think he's out of the championship. We are not seeing Ducati doing that well when the track temperature is low and there's only 3 races after this (assuming no cancellations), which are in the Northern Hemisphere November
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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:39 am
I'm going to go out on a limb, unless Dovi turns it around to today, then I think he's out of the championship. We are not seeing Ducati doing that well when the track temperature is low and there's only 3 races after this (assuming no cancellations), which are in the Northern Hemisphere November
I came here to post the same thing. Even a pair of wet races might not be enough to help him now.

Somehow Maverick drags himself and manages to stay within the 25 points margin to Mir, but he does not seem to have the speed/consistency combination to tun it around on his own. Back to back races on the same circuit and it seems as if he unlearns it. 4th and then 7th despite a lot of DNFs...

Is Quartararo feeling the pressure or being mature enough to avoid a DNF on a day the bike was not settled?

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Fingernails »

In the Moto2 today Sam Lowes was utterly dominant - nobody could touch him. I haven't looked at the points, but it must be close by now. ... I have looked, and Lowes is now in the lead by seven points, having out-scored Bastianini by nine points in this race. Luca Marini appears to be doing a Redding.

Moto3 was the usual rather confusing race with John McPhee making his way from way down on the grid to challenge for the lead and fade. Congratulations to Sasaki for his first podium. Arenas is staying in the lead of the championship, but Masia has been doing a much better job in the last few races - well he won the last two. If I calculate correctly, if the last three races were repeated exactly for the next three races in the championship, Masia would win by one point.
CLX wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:44 am
Before the weekend I had Morbidelli as a crazy dark horse, but that is gone now.
Hmmm.... Maybe not :D

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by Mikesbytes »

Track temperature went up and Dovi still didn't cut it. I'll stick with what I said that he's out of the hunt, he needs more than a win to get back into the hunt, he needs the others to DNF
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:39 am
I'm going to go out on a limb, unless Dovi turns it around to today, then I think he's out of the championship. We are not seeing Ducati doing that well when the track temperature is low and there's only 3 races after this (assuming no cancellations), which are in the Northern Hemisphere November
Yep I think you are right there.. think Aleix Espargaro running him wide and then him making a mistake a few corners afterwards was probably the final nail in the coffin - unless something really mental happens.

So now with 75 pts left, if all races take place, the following riders technically still in the championship hunt (only the 14! :D )

1 Joan MIR Suzuki SPA 137
2 Fabio QUARTARARO Yamaha FRA 123
3 Maverick VIÑALES Yamaha SPA 118
4 Franco MORBIDELLI Yamaha ITA 112
5 Andrea DOVIZIOSO Ducati ITA 109
6 Alex RINS Suzuki SPA 105
7 Takaaki NAKAGAMI Honda JPN 92
8 Pol ESPARGARO KTM SPA 90
9 Jack MILLER Ducati AUS 82
10 Miguel OLIVEIRA KTM POR 79
11 Danilo PETRUCCI Ducati ITA 71
12 Brad BINDER KTM RSA 67
13 Alex MARQUEZ Honda SPA 67
14 Johann ZARCO Ducati FRA 64

Morbidelli and Rins definitely have the momentum. But, Vinales goes well at Valencia and FQ is still very close.
If I were a betting man I would say Mir is the person that has looked most steady. But, a couple of wet or very cold races at Valencia and that points gap can come down really quickly, especially if the top guys struggle to get into the top 10.

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Ducati lead manus chip!

Post by Apical »

Rain in Spain!
Seems they have had rain already.
Looks like rain overnight and Friday morning, two different forecasts are predicting some rain Friday/not much, some or none Saturday.
Should be fine for the races, fingers crossed.

Might be good conditions for Dovizioso to show what he's got.

DUCATI leading the manufacturers championship !! Yamaha penalized. Not the riders.

https://www.motogp.com/en/news/2020/11/ ... nts/354054
"Faster, faster, until the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death," Hunter S Thompson

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

This Yamaha engine saga has spoiled my mood a little. Feels like politics guiding sporting decisions.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

I am glad at least they haven't penalised the riders - it would have been a rubbish way to decide the championship.

But, them's the rules and if Yamaha broke it then ??

From what I have read track marginally favours the Suzuki over the Yamaha? Just have a bit more squirt coming out of the corners and onto the short straights, at what is essentially a big go-kart track.

My money would still be on Mir UNLESS he decides he needs to win a race this year, and throws it down the road trying to do that, rather than being consistent which has got him this far.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by herbs »

Nobody gives a crap about the teams/constructors. This gives the ok for a team to break the rules and not be punished appropriately. Also, does anyone really believe the Yamaha excuse of an 'internal oversight'?

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Massive blow to Vinales chances this year - Yamaha have had to open a 6th engine so he will be starting from the pitlane on Sunday.

Petronas must be bricking it too as Morbidelli especially has massive mileage on his engines (1 engine on 1300 miles, they are certified for 500)
Nobody gives a crap about the teams/constructors. This gives the ok for a team to break the rules and not be punished appropriately. Also, does anyone really believe the Yamaha excuse of an 'internal oversight'?
Yup I do kind of agree - those rules are there for a reason.

You do wonder how much of this is a commercial decision and whether Dorna have had a word with Mike Trimby. So the WC isn't decided by a rules breach. (Just complete guess on my part)

Very strong words from Suzuki and David Brivio, that this year's WC will have a black mark on it if Yamaha win. You have to wonder if this had been Honda affected (and they were the aggrieved party) if they would have protested much more strongly.

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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by kenup283 »

The rules clearly say penalties apply for an engine which is found not to comply with homologation each time the non-compliant engine was used at an event.

This can really only mean DQ for each session those engines were used. I have a feeling here the others are staying quite as we all live in glass houses so to speak.

But that said even if not the first place, the championship order is being decided as it’s a big chunk of change and the leading two Yamahas who managed to not have reliability issues while running these engines are going to be finishing ahead of many riders who they otherwise would not of applied rules as written.

It’s a tough pill to swallow. Can’t for the life of me think what Yamaha was thinking with their initial appeal calling attention to themselves or why it’s taken so long to run tests. It kinda feels like a let’s see how it goes kind of thing before deciding. The positive side is it’s happening in the open now and not behind closed doors. On we go.

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CLX
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Re: 2020 world championship prediction

Post by CLX »

Mir has a solid and deserved lead now.

Quartararo's season now reminds me of Maverick in 2017.

Portugal is in a second lockdown, if the race somehow doesn't go ahead...

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