Sepang test 2020

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gwcrim
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Sepang test 2020

Post by gwcrim »

Crash.net is reporting this morning that Marq Marquez is having trouble dragging his ear lobe through the corners. Er... dragging his elbow.

Fabio and Franco are faaaast.

I know it's just pre-season testing but it's all we have to chew on.

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Tourn46
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Tourn46 »

gwcrim wrote: Fabio and Franco are faaaast.
They were both on the 2019 bike today, going to the 2020 bike tomorrow.

Not suggesting that either of them aren't very fast, but they were likely dialled in really well from last year.

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Tourn46
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Tourn46 »

Yamaha is still slow, but closer if you look at the 2020 bike Rossi and Vinales were on in comparison to the 2019 bikes.

The Aprilia has been helping itself to Ianonne's steroids by the looks of it... A Espargaro second on the top speed chart.

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speeddog
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by speeddog »

Petronas boys are fast, but they're riding an evolution of the '19 bike.

I find it very interesting that spots 3-8 are one each of every manufacturer on the grid.

MM is paying the price for his bad habit of hanging onto the bars too long when he crashes.
That's going to permanently fuxxor a shoulder or hand at some point and finish his career.

hdot
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by hdot »

speeddog wrote:Petronas boys are fast, but they're riding an evolution of the '19 bike.

I find it very interesting that spots 3-8 are one each of every manufacturer on the grid.

MM is paying the price for his bad habit of hanging onto the bars too long when he crashes.
That's going to permanently fuxxor a shoulder or hand at some point and finish his career.
I think it's more of the physicality of the Honda. Not so much holding on in a crash, but just holding on and steering in general. I don't know what Nakagami does when he crashes, but I doubt he holds on like Marquez, or crashes as much. But his shoulder got wrecked too.

The variance and tightness of the field is encouraging, as is the somewhat relevant proximity in times to the lap record. But it's still just the first test day, with new tires, etc. etc. I want to see certain data like Yamaha's trap speeds and other key points.

warthog1
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by warthog1 »

Can't wait to see Fab on the new bike.
How well/quickly will he be able to sort it and be fast?
Read that crash story on MM's shoulder.
Absence of pain seems a good thing and it is improving.
I thought it was encouraging.
Don't doubt he has worked hard, but not too crazy concerned for the season.

Looking forward to seeing how the Yam goes with the new engine and tyres over race distance.

Apical
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Apical »

The aqua team doing well on improved 2019 Yamahas.
Fabio Quarteraro and Franco Morbidelli are both fast. Morbidelli had a somewhat ordinary season last year. Maybe due to adapting to the Yamaha after the nasty older Honda he rode in 2018.
I'm wondering if the SRT (Sepang Racing Team) has something special at Sepang international circuit.
Razlan Razali is the CEO at SIC. And the SRT team owner. MotoGp manager of the year at 1st try.
Not sure how Fab & Franco would benefit from this.
Perhaps they feel some extra pressure to perform.
Maybe there is some extra track knowledge they receive that helps.
Don't think they have had any extra track time.

Top speeds of the Yamahas not so slow.
Rossi best of the Yamahas, 4 km/h down on Jack Miller.
Vinales 2 ks down compared to V.R.46.

Aqua team Franco 2 ks slower than Maverick, Quarteraro another 1 kmph and slowest of the Yamaha top speeds and yet the best lap time.

https://motomatters.com/analysis/2020/0 ... s_top.html
Good to have some real action to consider.
"Faster, faster, until the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death," Hunter S Thompson

warthog1
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by warthog1 »

Yeah Fab is still showing the speed!

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Fingernails
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Fingernails »

I've been looking at the testing times, and I don't think many conclusions can be made. All the top teams have been within hundreds of the best time at some point, and Aprilia and KTM have usually be 0.3-4s behind for their best rider. This is close, but I just can't see enough to get any real picture. I think we're going to have to wait for a while to have any clear picture of how 2020 will go.

gwcrim
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by gwcrim »

Fingernails wrote:I think we're going to have to wait for a while to have any clear picture of how 2020 will go.
Just a few weeks!

Last year's test was similar. There were people at the top of the list who were nowhere to be found when the season began.

Let the 2020 season begin!

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Decker
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Decker »

Apical wrote:The aqua team doing well on improved 2019 Yamahas.
Fabio Quarteraro and Franco Morbidelli are both fast. Morbidelli had a somewhat ordinary season last year. Maybe due to adapting to the Yamaha after the nasty older Honda he rode in 2018.
I'm wondering if the SRT (Sepang Racing Team) has something special at Sepang international circuit.
Razlan Razali is the CEO at SIC. And the SRT team owner. MotoGp manager of the year at 1st try.
Not sure how Fab & Franco would benefit from this.
Perhaps they feel some extra pressure to perform.
Maybe there is some extra track knowledge they receive that helps.
Don't think they have had any extra track time.

Top speeds of the Yamahas not so slow.
Rossi best of the Yamahas, 4 km/h down on Jack Miller.
Vinales 2 ks down compared to V.R.46.

Aqua team Franco 2 ks slower than Maverick, Quarteraro another 1 kmph and slowest of the Yamaha top speeds and yet the best lap time.

https://motomatters.com/analysis/2020/0 ... s_top.html
Good to have some real action to consider.
Saw a post recently quoting Cal to the effect that top speed ratings are largely down to how big the rider’s balls are nearing the end of the main straight where the radar gun is located. He said Miller was generally thought to be the one with huevos mejor.

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speeddog
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by speeddog »

I you guys aren't following @Anna_Maria_09 on twitter, give her a look.

She crunches the data and creates charts like this:

Image

That chart illustrates how brutally deceptive it is to focus on who's got the fastest lap.
On combined times, MV 16th fastest and Aleix 10th, using that in isolation one would write them off.
But stringing a fast run together, MV and Aleix look very competitive.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Mikesbytes »

So if we took say each riders 3rd fastest laps, we could assume that eliminates the hot lap, we still end up with 0.3 separating the entire group and as we don't know what they were doing testing wise its a case of (in regards to lap times) "move along folks, nothing to see here"

Perhaps its showing something that we already knew, that there will be a variety of riders jostling for podiums and a wider variety or riders in group 2

What to look for is how well some of the holes have been filled;
- Yamaha and Suzuki top speed
- Ducati mid corner
- Honda rideable by other riders
- KTM and Aprilia catch-up
And how well adapted new riders plus transferred riders are doing
My signature isn't particularly interesting

warthog1
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by warthog1 »

speeddog wrote:I you guys aren't following @Anna_Maria_09 on twitter, give her a look.

She crunches the data and creates charts like this:

Image

That chart illustrates how brutally deceptive it is to focus on who's got the fastest lap.
On combined times, MV 16th fastest and Aleix 10th, using that in isolation one would write them off.
But stringing a fast run together, MV and Aleix look very competitive.
Great chart.
MV looking very good.

Apical
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Apical »

Maverick & Aleix looking good for race pace.
Seems to be paying off for A. Espargaro.
Hope the Aprilia engines hold together.
"Faster, faster, until the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death," Hunter S Thompson

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Fingernails
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Fingernails »

Apical wrote:Maverick & Aleix looking good for race pace.
Seems to be paying off for A. Espargaro.
Hope the Aprilia engines hold together.
I will fully admit that through there being too many things to do I haven't read every words of the testing reports.

Has anyone blown any engines yet? I think most riders have done 10-15 laps or so, so quite a bit shorter than a race distance. Anyone gone longer?

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zelot
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by zelot »

They said in the MotoGP After the Flag program that Aprilia were re-building engines at the end of each day. I think they meant they were checking all the valve clearances etc and double checking all components. Aleix was desperate to do a full race simulation but the exhaust broke during the simulation. Looks like they have power at last.

I think the new Michelin rear is throwing a lot of the teams off, and it will take them a bit of effort to adjust electronics and chassis to cope with the changed grip. I assume this means things like wheel spin strategies and stuff need to change. Simon Crafar reported seeing a lot of "pumping" from the Ducati rear, so maybe the extra grip is confusing the electronics a bit.

Fun times ahead :-P

hdot
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by hdot »

Feels like 2016 all over again. Maybe we will get 10 race winners this year

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speeddog
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by speeddog »

hdot wrote:Feels like 2016 all over again. Maybe we will get 10 race winners this year
Where do I sign?

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Mikesbytes »

Long runs graph on crash.net: https://www.crash.net/motogp/feature/93 ... otogp-test

Even the long runs are hard to analyse
My signature isn't particularly interesting

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Fingernails
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Fingernails »

There are comments that the Yamahas and the Suzukis are looking good. However, these are the bikes with in-line 4 engines. While these bikes may be fast, if they are slower on straights - again - then while they may be fast there may be disadvantages compared to the Honda and Ducati as we may again see an issue where the Yamaha (and perhaps now Suzuki) is fast over a lap, but in a race when they duel with another bike the Yamaha can be passed on the straight and then can't use its superior speed in the corners. Times in testing where riders are riding alone may not transfer over to the races.

hdot
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by hdot »

Fingernails wrote:There are comments that the Yamahas and the Suzukis are looking good. However, these are the bikes with in-line 4 engines. While these bikes may be fast, if they are slower on straights - again - then while they may be fast there may be disadvantages compared to the Honda and Ducati as we may again see an issue where the Yamaha (and perhaps now Suzuki) is fast over a lap, but in a race when they duel with another bike the Yamaha can be passed on the straight and then can't use its superior speed in the corners. Times in testing where riders are riding alone may not transfer over to the races.
All the bikes are capped on power in lower gears. If Suzuki/Yamaha can lock down qualifying, and put down enough power at the start to get the holeshot and build a buffer at the start of the race, they can win Lorenzo style at all but the fastest tracks. And hell, maybe the fast ones too; pretty sure Fabio and Maverick were on the 2 bottom steps of the podium at Austria last year... and they weren't very far behind Marquez.

Even with its straight line speed Ducati seems nervous about this season; their ability to leverage the new rear tire is a big question mark. I almost want to write them off as a championship threat. From Silverstone on both Mav AND Quart outscored Dovi. The mood at Yamaha seems more positive and team focused than Ducati as well- knowing your factory aggressively pursued at least 4 other riders for your spot isn't exactly a vote of confidence or a strong motivator. Throw in Marquez' shoulder and 2020 feels like Yamaha's year

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Fingernails
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by Fingernails »

hdot wrote: All the bikes are capped on power in lower gears. If Suzuki/Yamaha can lock down qualifying, and put down enough power at the start to get the holeshot and build a buffer at the start of the race, they can win Lorenzo style at all but the fastest tracks. And hell, maybe the fast ones too; pretty sure Fabio and Maverick were on the 2 bottom steps of the podium at Austria last year... and they weren't very far behind Marquez.
Vinales managed that in Malaysia, but was perhaps helped by Marquez being delayed fighting other people. In other races Marquez was able to stay with or catch the leading Yamaha and then win. We'll see during the season, but I'm not convinced that Yamaha have addressed that issue well enough that they'll win out over a season if Marquez stays uninjured.
Even with its straight line speed Ducati seems nervous about this season; their ability to leverage the new rear tire is a big question mark. I almost want to write them off as a championship threat. From Silverstone on both Mav AND Quart outscored Dovi. The mood at Yamaha seems more positive and team focused than Ducati as well- knowing your factory aggressively pursued at least 4 other riders for your spot isn't exactly a vote of confidence or a strong motivator.
I'm wondering if Ducati put too many eggs into the engine power basket. The closer the engines get to theoretical maximum power, the harder it is to take steps forward, and the harder it is to have a significant advantage over the competitors. I'm not sure that Ducati have enough extra grunt to compensate for an uninjured Marquez.
Throw in Marquez' shoulder and 2020 feels like Yamaha's year
And there's the $1,000,000 question for this season. Will Marquez be functioning at 100% all year?

kenup283
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by kenup283 »

Finally sat down to look over the time sheets from 3 days of testing, I will post this in two parts; First a qualitative feel from looking at the time sheets, followed by a look at the numbers.

First up the qualitative approach:

Day 1: Most impressed with how quickly Marq Marquez came up to speed. He set his quickest lap of the day on just his seventh lap, a 1:59.6. The only others up to speed that quick were the Espargaro brothers who had been at shakedown testing already before. Others riders took several more laps working up to sub two min lap times.

What came next for Marq was potentially even more important. He than ran the rest of the day at seconds slower pace. But the two most important times may not be lap times, but rather the times of day, corresponding to at least two of his next exists from long layovers in the pits that came right in front within seconds of when his brother Alex Marquez was to exit pits shortly after.

My take away from that is Marq is just a quick as before and up to speed quicker than the rest of then field, and then adds to that by spending his time helping his teammate get up to speed quicker too. While I did not watch or view this on screen to confirm, it looks entirely believable and supported by the time that it didn't take long for the question to be answered how will Marquez approach working together with his new teammate.

Day 2: Pedrosa is faaast. Miller too. But cant help but feel the strong showing from Pedrosa on the new KTM is vindication much deserved and takes the cake for the story of the day, if not the test. It is also shows what he and KTM have been up to has been helping. If only the collective fan base and media didn't drive him away from racing,.. nevermind, forget I said that last part…

Other strong shows from suzukis coming out of the box with some 59's in first few laps, and also later in day a very consiteint sets of laps from Olivera did not go unnoticed. Morbidelli also backed up his strong showing from the day before and making the Petronas team look like the all around team to beat.

We also got to see the first rider taking a stab at a race distance, or nearly to it, as Alex Marquez put in a run of 18 laps following putting down his quickest time of day mid morning he went on to run set of mid to high 2:00 laps in the afternoon heat showing little signs of slowing pace or drop off until what would be 3/4trs race distance. Whether those few laps were slower due to tire wearing out or rider fatigue not sure, but looking good for both in terms of durability as were only few tenths off..

Day 3: Longer runs seemed to be the order of the day for many riders. Vinales took top honors giving a go at full distance running high 59's for 20 laps he laid down his mark and stamped his timecard for a hard days work. Bagnia would also give a full race run a go but at high 2:00's to low 2:01's would not appear to be much of a threat on this day.

The other quick cats could be found doing half race runs, with Rins and surprisingly Alex Espargaro on the Aprilia putting in solid string of mid 59's, which for Espargaro put the capstone on an impressive start with new bike. Following on their heels would be a cluster of riders in high 59's to low 2:00's made up of Quartarao, Dovi, Petrutchi, and Mir. Binder would also stretch the legs on the KTM putting in half distance run at a good low 2:00 pace.

Everyone else would work in short, mostly 4 lap sets, and among them Marq put in several sets of solid mid to high 59's. Entirely possible they could also have been working on race pace just in shorter stints, but such is the nature of testing that we will not know how much fuel is in the tank or how old their tires are each exit.

kenup283
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Re: Sepang test 2020

Post by kenup283 »

Now for the second part; the data

What I noticed about these 3 days was the quickest times across them were relatively consentient, meaning track was well rubbered in prior to day 1 already. So while we can't know what teams are working on we can at least have a look at what they did :)

For that I like to look at sector times. Particularly at tracks with asymetry like Sepang where we have a clear 4th sector which is all about acceleration, and a couple middle sectors with the twisty bits. I encourage a good look at the track map sector break down before looking at the charts to be able to best make used of this approach.

I also did something different this time and pulled down the quickest sector times by each manufacture and noted which rider set them at the bottom. While the ideal laps time taken from this is somewhat fictitious as different bikes are going to be set up differently it does give an indication of which riders are getting the business done for their respective makes.

So prior to giving my thoughts I will show you what I have put together.. The following are charts the quickest sector times for each rider each day of the test. The order of riders from top to bottom is in sequence of quickest laptime set. As quickest sectors may not often occur all in the same lap I also included an Ideal Time on far right as well.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Link to full size image all days side by side

https://i.postimg.cc/XvX8qNt2/Sepang2020test.jpg

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