MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season - Results

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ReviveTheWhigs
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by ReviveTheWhigs »

RatsMC wrote:So, you want me to delete the bet for one of the big four to crash out?
Sorry about the confusion, Rats. I was thinking of changing it from "one of the big 3 crashing" to "Lorenzo crashing."

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Well, now you really lost me. :shock:

There is already a prediction that Lorenzo will crash out. Are you good with that one and do not want to put any points onn the "Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race" prediction?

ReviveTheWhigs
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by ReviveTheWhigs »

RatsMC wrote:Well, now you really lost me. :shock:

There is already a prediction that Lorenzo will crash out. Are you good with that one and do not want to put any points onn the "Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race" prediction?
:lol: :oops:

Sorry, I forgot that Albert had already made the "Lorenzo crashes out" bet. Yes, I'm good with that one and do not want to put any points on the "Rossi, Lorenzo, Pedrosa to crash out" prediction.

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Whew! Thanks for your patience.

Desmo44
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Desmo44 »

25 Rpts against #169
25 Rpts for #170
25 Rpts for #171
25 Rpts for #176
Being shot out of a cannon will always be better than being squeezed out of a tube. That is why God made fast motorcycles, Bubba....
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Rusty Bucket USA
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

Anybody want to take sides on the Suzuki garage?
The internal combustion engine was not put on wheels just to rest the horses.

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Joki3in1
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Joki3in1 »

HI Rats,
don't know if my predictions have been recorded but I think I've put some prediction on #172

thnx,

RatsMC wrote:
UPDATE:

Unchallenged Predictions - -- ---
172 Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race

Challenged Predictions
167 Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy --------Odds For: 1.2 to 1 --Odds Against: 5.0 to 1
168 RdP will finish 5th or better --------Odds For: 4.0 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.3 to 1
169 2 Hondas on the Podium --------Odds For: 2.5 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.7 to 1
170 2 Ducatis 8th or better --------Odds For: 3.5 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.4 to 1
171 Hayden will finish 4th or better --------Odds For: 1.4 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.7 to 1
173 MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal --------Odds For: 1.3 to 1 --Odds Against: 4.0 to 1
174 Elias on podium --------Odds For: 1.4 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.5 to 1
175 C.Edwards on the podium --------Odds For: 1.9 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.2 to 1
176 New face on the podium --------Odds For: 1.6 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.8 to 1
177 Lorenzo will crash out of the race --------Odds For: 1.7 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.5 to 1
178 2 Yamahas on the podium --------Odds For: 1.4 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.5 to 1
Joki3in1 wrote: #172 20 Againts
#178 10 Againts
#167 10 Againts
#171 30 Againts
#175 15 Againts
#176 15 Againts
=joki=

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Gustav O
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Gustav O »

10 for #167
30 against #174
20 against # 176
20 against #177
20 for #178

phil

Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by phil »

What happens now with the Lorenzo does'nt sign with Ducati bet Mr Rats?
does it stand and we win or loose our bets on tuesday, or are you deciding to scrap it?
no worries either way by me mate, i stand by your decision.

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

It looks like both of us won my friend. Even though betting closes on Friday, the outcomes can be determined at any time.

Of course, we didn't win much. I am taking home 5 points out of the deal while you get the remaining 25.

phil

Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by phil »

ok.
thats got to be a Rat-Record in its self, winning on Tuesday! :lol:
it wasn't about the points for me it was backing my beliefs in the face of going against popular opinion.

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Faster1
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Faster1 »

,, my last 20 against #171

,, it doesn't seem like a Duc track.
.


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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Joki3in1 wrote:HI Rats,
don't know if my predictions have been recorded but I think I've put some prediction on #172

thnx,

You are correct, sir. However, right now, you are the only one with points on that prediction. Revive the Whigs pulled out his FOR bet when Albert challenged his manhood.

All the cool kids are betting on Lorenzo to crash out.

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Gustav O wrote:10 for #167 (Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy)

Eep! I didn't see this one. When was the announcement made?

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Unchallenged Predictions - -- ---
172 Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race

Challenged Predictions
167 Lorenzo will not sign for Ducati at Indy --------Odds For: 1.2 to 1 --Odds Against: 5.3 to 1
168 RdP will finish 5th or better --------Odds For: 4.0 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.3 to 1
169 2 Hondas on the Podium --------Odds For: 3.8 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.4 to 1
170 2 Ducatis 8th or better --------Odds For: 2.1 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.9 to 1
171 Hayden will finish 4th or better --------Odds For: 1.4 to 1 --Odds Against: 3.4 to 1
173 MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal --------Odds For: 1.3 to 1 --Odds Against: 4.0 to 1
174 Elias on podium --------Odds For: 1.7 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.4 to 1
175 C.Edwards on the podium --------Odds For: 1.9 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.2 to 1
176 New face on the podium --------Odds For: 1.6 to 1 --Odds Against: 2.6 to 1
177 Lorenzo will crash out of the race --------Odds For: 2.1 to 1 --Odds Against: 1.9 to 1
178 2 Yamahas on the podium --------Odds For: 1.2 to 1 --Odds Against: 5.5 to 1

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Folks, a suggestion has been made that we try a new structure for picking winner or pole for the races.

The suggestion is that instead of having a “For” and “Against” bet, we simply choose a winner and picking correctly wins the pool of bets from those who chose other riders.

Of course, this would be in addition to the current format and we would just remove the “______ to win” prediction.

Essentially, it would end up looking like this:


Rossi - 150 for
Lorenzo 120 for
Hayden 75 for
Elias 25 for
Talmasci 85 for
Capirossi 45 for
Vermeulen 100 for

Total 600


And then the odds would look like this:(total pool divided by bets for)

Rossi 4 to 1
Loren to 1
Hayden 8 to 1
Elias 24 to 1
Talmasci 7 to 1
Capirossi 13 to 1
Vermeulen 6 to 1


Of course, the odds will likely look a little different but this is a good example of what might happen.

As you can see, a blowout is possible given another Donington type outcome but in most cases the winner will take a good but not insane pot.

There are a number of details to decide but the first is whether this is a path that you guys want to pursue.

In all likelihood, I will implement this next season but the question at hand is whether you are interested now.

By the way, should the discussion regarding the development of the contest be in its own topic? Is this distracting? Would you keep track of a “development and suggestions” topic?

And a big thanks to Rusty for the idea as well as helping me understand the intricacies.

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Faster1
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Faster1 »

,a new topic would be easier to refer back to after time and development,,
.


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Lifelong Yamaha Racing fan, but currently riding a Duc,,,, don't tell anyone 8-)


let's talk WSBK

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Joki3in1
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Joki3in1 »

RatsMC wrote:
Joki3in1 wrote:HI Rats,
don't know if my predictions have been recorded but I think I've put some prediction on #172

thnx,

You are correct, sir. However, right now, you are the only one with points on that prediction. Revive the Whigs pulled out his FOR bet when Albert challenged his manhood.

All the cool kids are betting on Lorenzo to crash out.
Ah, didn't saw that one..

IF it's go unchallenge, I'd like to move it to
#178 Againts..

thnx
=joki=

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Pix
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Pix »

RatsMC wrote:It looks like both of us won my friend. Even though betting closes on Friday, the outcomes can be determined at any time.

Of course, we didn't win much. I am taking home 5 points out of the deal while you get the remaining 25.
I'm so glad you didn't do that for the 'Stoner on the podium' prediction at Brno!! I would have lost my points on the Monday before!!

So does this mean whoever bet against you have lost their points already and cannot change them before the Friday deadline? Doesn't effect me, but in future I think I'll wait until Friday morning before making my predictions ;)

BTW, I like Rusty's suggestion for picking a winner, sounds good to me :)
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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Hmm...I hadn't thought of it that way (too busy thinking about different betting structures).

I certainly do nto want to do anything to encourage a last minute rush of moving bets around.

That said, do you feel that it was an unfairly called outcome? In the case of the Stoner prediction at Brno, the situation was that the condition could not be true and while it could be false, those who bet for Stoner to be on the podium placed their bet with the expectation that it could be true. In this case, I think everyone placed their bets with the same amount of information right up to when the outcome was announced.

This doesn't really seem to be a judgement call as some predictions are neccessarily going to be detemined before the close of betting and some may be determined after the race (the MSMA proposal for example).

However, I want everyone to be able to feel comfortable with how outcomes are determined so I will throw it out there: If an outcome is determined prior to the close of betting should that prediction be and the bets associated be allowed to stand?

We will continue to cancel all predictions where the outcome is not determined but rather become true or false as a events outside of the conditions of the prediction.

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

So, while in the middle of trying desperately to keep up with all of the things I need to get done at work, I have just had two more tasks dropped on me that each will take up nearly all of my time which means I am looking at nearly 3 full time jobs right now.

Why am I telling you this? I am expecting that I won't have much time to make any significant changes to the system for another month or so which puts us at the end of the season so we probably won't see much until next season. Of course, I sometimes seem to be able to find an extra couple of hours in the day when things get like this so this isn't definitive.

Of course, that measn that this winter break, I will have lots of time and we can try out all kinds of things. Since this place gets pretty quiet during the break, I thought it would be a good opportunity for us to test different structures for the contest as well as play with some interfaces.

BTW, if you care to have random MotoGP stats tossed at you like errant pizza dough, you can check them out here. I am not terribly convinced that Twitter is the social force that its producers want us to think it is and I rather believe that is akin to convincing people that belching in public is socially acceptable. That said, in my normal activities, I come across data that is interesting but not really interesting enough to devote an article or even a dynamic query to so Twitter provides a good outlet for them.

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Rusty Bucket USA
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Rusty Bucket USA »

Since the thing with Lorenzo was a bet about whether it would happen before the race, the betting would have to close when the event occurs.

In the case of a rider dropping out before the betting closes, move bets around as they would normally be allowed in the current rules.
The internal combustion engine was not put on wheels just to rest the horses.

Rossifumi
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Rossifumi »

okay, so here are my bets, but I have to admit to stabbing completely in the dark this time around.

172 Rossi, Lorenzo, or Pedrosa to crash out during the race. Against, 30pts
178 2 Yamahas on the podium. Against, 20pts
170 2 Ducatis 8th or better. For, 20pts
173 MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal. Against, 30pts (what's the deadline day for this?)

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RatsMC
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by RatsMC »

Rossifumi wrote: 173 MSMA Will Suggest an engine leasing proposal. Against, 30pts (what's the deadline day for this?)

My original suggestion was Tuesady. I just added to the notes for the prediction that an announcement must be made by Tuesday 3PM CST for this prediction to be true.

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Pix
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Re: MotoGP Prediction Contest Round 12 - Silly Season Edition

Post by Pix »

RatsMC wrote:That said, do you feel that it was an unfairly called outcome? In the case of the Stoner prediction at Brno, the situation was that the condition could not be true and while it could be false, those who bet for Stoner to be on the podium placed their bet with the expectation that it could be true. In this case, I think everyone placed their bets with the same amount of information right up to when the outcome was announced.
No, not unfair, I think you're right Rats.

With my last 80 points
#169 2 Hondas on the podium - 20 For
#173 MSMA will suggest an engine leasing proposal - 20 Against
#178 2 Yamahas on the podium - 40 Against

Weather fairy says 21 degrees & sunny for the race. Hoping for a close one!
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