KTM better or worse

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Mikesbytes
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KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

I was saying that KTM seems to have gone backwards a little this year in the race thread, so I've gone and looked at the data and I'm thinking that my statement isn't perfect, more a case off being similar results to last year

2017
Qatar 16th 33.6, 17th 33.9
Argentina 14th 43.0, 15th 43.4
US 16th 1'22.0, DNF
Spain 14th 47.9, DNF
France 12th 52.6, 13th 53.1
Italy 20th 50.8, DNF
Catalunya 18th 48.9 (no second bike)
Dutch 11th 1'09.3, DNF
Germany 13th 32.1, 14th 36.4, 16th 37.8 (test rider)
Chech 9th 30.7, DNF
Austria 10th 19.7 (test rider), 18th 36.423, DNF
Brit 11th 30.3, 17th 48.6
Misano 10th 57.9, 11th 1'00.4
San Marino 10th 57.9, 11th 1'00.4
Aragon 10th 14.0, 17.1
Thailand (didn't start till 2018)
Jap 11th 56.3, 17th 1'06.2
Aussie 9th 16.2, 10th 16.2
Malysia 10th 39.8, 12th 44.6
Valencia 11th 30.8, DNF, DNF (test rider)

2018
Qatar 18th 31.7, DNF
Argentina 11th 31.0, DNF
US 13th 37.2, 16th 48.4
Spain 10th 19.4, 11th 21.1
France 11th 32.3, 14th 38.2
Italy 11th 20.2, 14th 22.4
Catalunya 11th 36.5, DNF, DNF (test rider)
Dutch 12th 15.8, 17th 29.0
Germany 10th 21.4, DNF
Chech DNF (no second bike)
Austria 14th 29.1 (no second bike)
Brit (no race)
Misano 16th 46.5, DNF
San Marino [not on calendar]
Aragon 13th 28.8 (no second bike)
Thailand 15th 23.6 (no second bike)
Jap 12th 26.8, 13th 27.0
Aussie 10th 22.9, DNF
Malysia 15th 39.6, DNF
Valencia {where did I put my crystal ball}

However if you look at the times, they are clearly closer to the winner in more races than not

Best rider Improvement (seconds)
Qatar 2
Argentina 11
US 45
Spain 10
France 20
Italy 30
Catalunya 12
Dutch 54
Germany 11
Chech (2018 DNF)
Austria -10
Brit (no 2018 race)
Misano 11
San Marino (no 2018 race)
Aragon -14
Thailand (no 2017 race)
Jap 30
Aussie -8
Malysia 0
Valencia [TBD]

Positive = faster in 2018, Negative = slower in 2018
Note that I have ignored weather conditions

It seems to be suggesting that the field in general is closer in 2018 than it was in 2017
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Morpheus
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Morpheus »

Mikesbytes wrote:I was saying that KTM seems to have gone backwards a little this year in the race thread, so I've gone and looked at the data and I'm thinking that my statement isn't perfect, more a case off being similar results to last year

2017
Qatar 16th 33.6, 17th 33.9
Argentina 14th 43.0, 15th 43.4
US 16th 1'22.0, DNF
Spain 14th 47.9, DNF
France 12th 52.6, 13th 53.1
Italy 20th 50.8, DNF
Catalunya 18th 48.9 (no second bike)
Dutch 11th 1'09.3, DNF
Germany 13th 32.1, 14th 36.4, 16th 37.8 (test rider)
Chech 9th 30.7, DNF
Austria 10th 19.7 (test rider), 18th 36.423, DNF
Brit 11th 30.3, 17th 48.6
Misano 10th 57.9, 11th 1'00.4
San Marino 10th 57.9, 11th 1'00.4
Aragon 10th 14.0, 17.1
Thailand (didn't start till 2018)
Jap 11th 56.3, 17th 1'06.2
Aussie 9th 16.2, 10th 16.2
Malysia 10th 39.8, 12th 44.6
Valencia 11th 30.8, DNF, DNF (test rider)

2018
Qatar 18th 31.7, DNF
Argentina 11th 31.0, DNF
US 13th 37.2, 16th 48.4
Spain 10th 19.4, 11th 21.1
France 11th 32.3, 14th 38.2
Italy 11th 20.2, 14th 22.4
Catalunya 11th 36.5, DNF, DNF (test rider)
Dutch 12th 15.8, 17th 29.0
Germany 10th 21.4, DNF
Chech DNF (no second bike)
Austria 14th 29.1 (no second bike)
Brit (no race)
Misano 16th 46.5, DNF
San Marino [not on calendar]
Aragon 13th 28.8 (no second bike)
Thailand 15th 23.6 (no second bike)
Jap 12th 26.8, 13th 27.0
Aussie 10th 22.9, DNF
Malysia 15th 39.6, DNF
Valencia {where did I put my crystal ball}

However if you look at the times, they are clearly closer to the winner in more races than not

Best rider Improvement (seconds)
Qatar 2
Argentina 11
US 45
Spain 10
France 20
Italy 30
Catalunya 12
Dutch 54
Germany 11
Chech (2018 DNF)
Austria -10
Brit (no 2018 race)
Misano 11
San Marino (no 2018 race)
Aragon -14
Thailand (no 2017 race)
Jap 30
Aussie -8
Malysia 0
Valencia [TBD]

Positive = faster in 2018, Negative = slower in 2018
Note that I have ignored weather conditions

It seems to be suggesting that the field in general is closer in 2018 than it was in 2017
I think it’s difficult to be definitive about the performance of the ktm. With only Smithy being fit to ride they don’t have a lot to work with and I think Bradley has been doing a very good job. Without a fit top stream rider they were always going to struggle. Next year should see some big improvements.


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Vmax666
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Vmax666 »

Ktm are obviously investing a lot into MotoGP
But picking 2 riders who both had bad final years on the yamaha was a mistake
I am a fan of Bradley but think they made the right decision to replace him
I read somewhere that they have a bike ready with big improvements so surely they should have raced it this year to see if it’s as good as they think it is
And maybe junk the trellis frame

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JanBros
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by JanBros »

Vmax666 wrote: But picking 2 riders who both had bad final years on the yamaha was a mistake
when Bradley was signed, that last year hadn't even begun. Who was to know he was going to have a "bad" year due to the Michelins, after his VERY good previous year. He was at that moment one of the best available riders, AND he was willing to sign for a new factory to ride a bike no one new a lot about. Yep that's a mistake :?
Vmax666 wrote: And maybe junk the trellis frame
or maybe not. There are no reason's why it shouldn't work. Don't bother to give me some as they are nothing more than speculation.
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Vmax666
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Vmax666 »

I never said they shouldn’t have signed one of them
Just a mistake to sign both up
The performance of Bradley and pol has been similar on the ktm as well as on the yamaha with pol performing slightly better at the start to this year
But they need some big gains not just slight improvements
Who were the last team to use a trellis frame in MotoGP and how long did it last
Using something different may be good as a promotion tool but only if it works. On paper I have read alternatives to the front fork are lots better but in practice they have never worked for racing
There is a reason all top racing bikes look very similar. It works

Japhrodisiac
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Japhrodisiac »

JanBros wrote:
Vmax666 wrote: But picking 2 riders who both had bad final years on the yamaha was a mistake
when Bradley was signed, that last year hadn't even begun. Who was to know he was going to have a "bad" year due to the Michelins, after his VERY good previous year. He was at that moment one of the best available riders, AND he was willing to sign for a new factory to ride a bike no one new a lot about. Yep that's a mistake :?
Vmax666 wrote: And maybe junk the trellis frame
or maybe not. There are no reason's why it shouldn't work. Don't bother to give me some as they are nothing more than speculation.
Agreed, this is all speculation and monday morning commentary. You go with the best information you have at the time, no one has a crystal ball. KTMs with trellis frames do just fine in the other classes and KTM has an advantage in that the can build new frames in-house very quickly with this technology, something the other factories have struggled with.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

The frame argument boils down to whether the existing frame design can give the right feel or not, other stuff can be easier to adjust

Rider wise they got what was probably the best riders that a new manufacturer could acquire under the circumstances and timing. I'd have been surprised if any of the factory riders would of swapped to a team that would initially be lining up at the back of the grid and its future unknown
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Vmax666
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Vmax666 »

The other parts different to other manufacturers is the suspension
I know they own WP but maybe try some ohlins to see if there is a difference

The only thing for me is both of the current riders on their day are capable of top 6 finishes
But both and the test rider have failed to improve enough this year which to me considering the money pumped into it from red bull is poor
I am a big ktm fan from the off road world and believe they can improve if only they tried alternative ideas
Smaller bikes with a lot less power are far more forgiving. Trying to find grip with 220+ Bhp is completely different

I hope next year I am shown to be wrong and they improve by a big margin

Japhrodisiac
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Japhrodisiac »

Vmax666 wrote:The other parts different to other manufacturers is the suspension
I know they own WP but maybe try some ohlins to see if there is a difference

The only thing for me is both of the current riders on their day are capable of top 6 finishes
But both and the test rider have failed to improve enough this year which to me considering the money pumped into it from red bull is poor
I am a big ktm fan from the off road world and believe they can improve if only they tried alternative ideas
Smaller bikes with a lot less power are far more forgiving. Trying to find grip with 220+ Bhp is completely different

I hope next year I am shown to be wrong and they improve by a big margin
The last few tenths are the hardest and most expensive to find, and to attract a top rider they need to show potential top performance. I think in terms of how old the project is, they are doing a solid job. Let's watch to see whether next year is another step forward or not. I think it will be

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JanBros
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by JanBros »

Vmax666 wrote:The other parts different to other manufacturers is the suspension
I know they own WP but maybe try some ohlins to see if there is a difference

The only thing for me is both of the current riders on their day are capable of top 6 finishes
But both and the test rider have failed to improve enough this year which to me considering the money pumped into it from red bull is poor
I am a big ktm fan from the off road world and believe they can improve if only they tried alternative ideas
Smaller bikes with a lot less power are far more forgiving. Trying to find grip with 220+ Bhp is completely different

I hope next year I am shown to be wrong and they improve by a big margin
It is only their second year and they are already midfield. How can that not be a good result/progress ? Because they didn't improve enough to the year before that ? They clearly did, and I would say they improved very well. just look at the times in the list above.
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Japhrodisiac
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Japhrodisiac »

2018 Motogp team :
Pol, Brad, Mika as test rider, but Mika out as test rider 1/2 season and Pol out a few races with injuries

2019 MotoGp teams :

Pol, Zarco, with Mika and Dani as test riders

Oliviera, Hafiz, Guy Coulon, Herve's guys

2019 bike has been ready for several races but not able to use it, everyone says it's a solid step up.

Looking forward to seeing what they can do in 2019

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Mikesbytes
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

The way I see it is that they have narrowed the time gap to the other factory teams but so too has the Satellite teams and hence result wise it appears they haven't improved any more than the others

I'm guessing the main problem with doing their own things like frame and suspension is that they get less out of hiring engineers who are familiar with what everyone else has
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Fingernails
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Fingernails »

I'm sure that the new KTM is a step up compared to what they have now. The question will be how it will compare to the competition in 2019. And we won't know that until testing next year at the earliest.

The Honda satellite teams are likely, in my opinion, to take a relative step forward next year due to the quality of the 2018 Honda bike.

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JanBros
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by JanBros »

Fingernails wrote:
The Honda satellite teams are likely, in my opinion, to take a relative step forward next year due to the quality of the 2018 Honda bike.
Cal is basicly already on a factory bike, so that only leaves Nakagami.
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Tourn46
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Tourn46 »

An interesting one will be how the new satellite Yamaha team can perform... we don't know how well Morbidelli will go on it (as the Marc VDS Honda has been a heap of shite no matter who has been on it) and Quartararo is a total unknown.

KTM, in my opinion, should definitely be looking to leapfrog this team next year... but that said, it will have a better spec bike than Tech3 ever did.

At minimum... KTM would want to be aiming for finishing consistently in the top 10 next year. I think that's realistic... puts them behind the Factory Honda's, Ducati's, Yamaha's and Suzuki's broadly speaking... but ahead of satellite teams.

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Fingernails
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Fingernails »

JanBros wrote: Cal is basicly already on a factory bike, so that only leaves Nakagami.
Oh, of course. Bye bye Marc VDS. Given that the 2018 Honda looks to be a damn good bike, comparatively, that's a bit of a waste.

EDIT: Having said that, looking at the results for the year, Nakagami has often been one of the closest competitors for the KTMs, and is sitting immediately behind P Espargaro and Smith in the championship. Even if it's only him on a more competitive Honda, that could make a difference.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

Some interesting points. With the exception of the Zarco the bike type lineup is pretty much the same as 2017;
  • Podium Capable Factory 2018 bikes in factory teams - Honda, Yamaha, Ducati, Suzuki (8 bikes)
  • Podium Capable Factory 2018 bikes in satellite teams - Honda Yamaha (kind of), Ducati (3 bikes)
  • Mid field factory 2018 bikes - KTM, Aprilia (4 bikes) + Mid field to close podium 2017 bikes - Honda, Yamaha, Ducati (6 bikes)
  • Back of the grid 2016 bikes - Ducati (2 bikes)
2019 and this gets tighter, we have 2 less Ducati's which will be the 2 year old ones, 2 less Honda's, which have previously sucked anyway. BUT we now have 2 more factory KTM's in a Satellite team.

From a KTM viewpoint, I'm guessing the 2019 competition will be business as usual, as per my crystal ball;
1. 2019/Factory Ducati, Yamaha, Honda
1.5 2019/Factory Suzuki
2 2019/Satellite Ducati, Yamaha, Honda
2.5 2018/Top Satellite team Ducati, 2018 Satellite Yamaha
3 2019 Factory KTM, Aprillia [Aprillia is a wild guess]
3.5 2019 Satellite KTM, 2018 Bottom Satellite team Ducati, 2018 Satellite Honda

What we tend to see is that while 2018 the field was closer than 2017, we see 2019 has even closer than 2018 and if this actually happens then a single setting or tyre choice is the difference of 10 places where in 2017 it was a difference of 5 places.

A year from now we will know how right or how wrong my prediction is. And if we could predict accurately then it wouldn't be exciting
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by pom »

MotoGP.com released today an itw of JZ5. Seems his goal is to fight as soon as possible for the top5 again.

I guess KTM promised him They would do everything to ensure he would at least fight at the same level he did with the Satellite Yamaha. so top5/6 is the logical goal for 2019.

That's pretty ambitious and it would be a great achievement if they succeed to do so. I'm absolutely convinced KTM was the place to go for the frenchman and also convinced they'll succeed soon or later but if Zarco can still fight for the top5 quickly next year, I would be quite impressed.

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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Fingernails »

pom wrote:I guess KTM promised him They would do everything to ensure he would at least fight at the same level he did with the Satellite Yamaha. so top5/6 is the logical goal for 2019.

That's pretty ambitious and it would be a great achievement if they succeed to do so. I'm absolutely convinced KTM was the place to go for the frenchman and also convinced they'll succeed soon or later but if Zarco can still fight for the top5 quickly next year, I would be quite impressed.
It'll be interesting to see where they are next year. I think it's going to be a hard slog for KTM to get near the front, but I could easily be wrong.

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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by hdot »

Tourn46 wrote:An interesting one will be how the new satellite Yamaha team can perform... we don't know how well Morbidelli will go on it (as the Marc VDS Honda has been a heap of shite no matter who has been on it) and Quartararo is a total unknown.

KTM, in my opinion, should definitely be looking to leapfrog this team next year... but that said, it will have a better spec bike than Tech3 ever did.

At minimum... KTM would want to be aiming for finishing consistently in the top 10 next year. I think that's realistic... puts them behind the Factory Honda's, Ducati's, Yamaha's and Suzuki's broadly speaking... but ahead of satellite teams.
It's tricky. Of the top 10, only potential movement I see is Iannone receding on the Aprilia and Mir needing time to get up to speed. Not sure how JZ will do. But I don't see Pol cracking the top 10. Based on his average position, if he finished the 5 races he crashed out of my math says he'd jump from 18th (!) to 14th. To crack that top 10 he'd need to go from finishing 11th-12th and crashing to 7th-8th and finishing every race. Just not going to happen IMO barring a miracle.

Put another way, top 10 will most likely have both Hondas, Ducatis, Yamahas, 1 Suzuki and probably JZ. So 8 out of 10 taken. Then you have Cal Crutchlow and probably Jack Miller- 2 riders I don't think Pol has ever beaten. So again it would be a miracle... the grid is too stacked

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Mikesbytes
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

Agree, the stars would need to align in both the northern and southern skys for Pol to make the top 10. As has been said, better results + no crashes and on top of that some riders taking a holiday while the injuries heal
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Fingernails
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Fingernails »

hdot wrote:
Put another way, top 10 will most likely have both Hondas, Ducatis, Yamahas, 1 Suzuki and probably JZ. So 8 out of 10 taken. Then you have Cal Crutchlow and probably Jack Miller- 2 riders I don't think Pol has ever beaten. So again it would be a miracle... the grid is too stacked
I will be surprised if JZ finishes the championship in the top 10 next year.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by Mikesbytes »

Time to put a second mortgage on your house

http://www.mcnews.com.au/buy-genuine-kt ... p-machine/
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hdot
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by hdot »

Sidebar, one would think with MotoGP being so stacked with V4s we'd have more V4 road bikes.

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JanBros
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Re: KTM better or worse

Post by JanBros »

V4 is much more complicated and expensive to make to make compared to an inline 4
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