Silly Season

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
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Mikesbytes
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Silly Season

Post by Mikesbytes »

It's not even 2018 and the silly season has already started;

1. Probably the most significant is Rossi has stated that he will make a decision early on. It does seem to depend on how good the 2018 Yamaha is. We saw this year that the Yamaha didn't work in low grip, which was probably the main reason for doing a private test and they did get some rain to do some testing. If Rossi does retire it could cause a small domino effect.

2. KTM, we have seen various articles of suggestions and denials, its pretty clear that they are shopping for an Alien or thereabouts.

3. Dovi, Honda and Yamaha have denied that they are going to try and get Dovi. No doubt Dovi will ask for a bigger cheque for 2019.
Last edited by Mikesbytes on Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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pom
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by pom »

the BIG one. :)

Would be great if you could add the 2019 previsionnal grid in the first post and update it during the 2018 silly season. What do you think ?

herbs
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by herbs »

I'm sure that everyone bar Cal crutchlow and the Marc vds riders are out of contract at the end of 2018.

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

In the earlier part of the season we will see the first moves, then things will fall like a house of cards, starting with Rossi and Zarco.

The scenario I'm seeing is that Zarco wants to stay with Yamaha but only in a factory seat, which means waiting for Rossi to make the decision to retire or continue (BTW Herve is sniffing for a 2018 Yamaha for Zarco https://www.autosport.com/motogp/news/1 ... after-2018 BUT if Rossi stays, then what happens to Zarco?

1. Factory Honda? Only if Pedrosa retires
2. Factory Yamaha? Highly unlikely they would replace Vinales, would need to be a career ending injury and I don't see any chance of Vinales jumping ship. Closest Zarco could get was to stay with Herve on a factory bike
3. Factory Suzuki? I'm sure they want him but I'm betting Zarco doesn't
4. Factory Aprillia? The bike isn't up it and they aren't poring as much $$$ at it as the big players
5. Factory Ducati? I'd be surprised to see Dovi out of that team, he would need to be following the $$$ for that to happen. Lorenzo probably not as stable with Ducati, there's a big unknown with Lorenzo but performance wise he has probably got it now. If Lorenzo left it won't be for Yamaha
6. Factory KTM? They want an alien, Zarco is about as close as they could get
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Tourn46
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Tourn46 »

Only in Italian at the moment... but Poncharal suggesting that VR46 would get priority as the satellite Yamaha team when/if the time comes and that Zarco will not be on the new 2018 machine (ie, Yamaha are doing exactly the same as they have any other year with Tech 3).

https://www.gpone.com/it/2017/12/11/mot ... amaha.html

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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by snowman »


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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

There seems to be some anomalies with this one...

https://www.nst.com.my/sports/motor-spo ... afizh-2019
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CLX
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by CLX »

I think I'd rather see Zarco at KTM. It'd help spread the talent through the factories and, assuming both KTM and him build on their potential, it could diversify the podium circle.

Speaking of, way off topic, my wife's pregant with a boy, we'll name him Johann. =D It's for Zarco and also my father and grandfather.

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snowman
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by snowman »

Congrats on the kid, would have been more fun if you'd named him Zarco though!

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

Congrats CLX, is it your first?
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Apical
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Re: Baby Season 2019

Post by Apical »

Congratulations CLX and your partner. I hope it all goes well. Johan or Johanna ?
Have a sweet summer (winter) solstice
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pom
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by pom »

@clx : congrats!

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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by atropos »

Congratulations CLX and best wishes to all three of you. :)

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

I've copied this one over here as there's a large degree of overlap
What are the factory options for someone from outside. Assuming no career ending injury;
Yamaha - Rossi retires - almost certain that Zarco would get the ride
Honda - Pedrosa retires - no obvious choice but Honda seem to have a preference to incorporating a young rider
Ducati - Lorenzo leaves, goes to Suzuki - Ducati has some deep sponsorship pockets and if the Duc shines early in the season, then they could be an attractive destination though they could promote one of the Pramac riders

In the case of Rossi not retiring then Zarco may well be the choice for Honda or Ducati

So it would seem to me that for Rea to get a top MotoGP bike then we would need to see Rossi and Pedrosa retire and Lorenzo leave Ducati

4 races into the season I will have a totally different opinion :D
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CLX
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by CLX »

Sorry to take it off topic, but thanks guys! He'll be my second, but 1st with my wife. My 1st son lives with his mother in Brasilia. Johann was a hard sell, my wife would have never accepted Zarco as his name.

- I think Morbidelli is Pedrosa's natural replacement, if he has a good enough season, or two, depending on how long Pedrosa races on. At least that's what Mat Oxley said when I asked him about it on his blog a while ago.
- As for Lorenzo and Ducati, who knows? 2018 will begin with both of them in a very weird spot. Both have to deliver. A Ducati slump would ruin their momentum and maybe even drive riders away to KTM, or Aprili, or Suzuki. Those three factories have a lot of potential. If Lorenzo does not deliver, who knows who'll pick him up?

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herbs
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by herbs »

I doubt that pedrosa will retire in the next year or so, he's giving enough value to the team (plus his sponsorship) that hrc will continue with him. Morbidelli will find it very tough going next year so I wouldn't anoint him as a Repsol Honda shoe in. The only possible wild cards could be either Rossi retiring or Lorenzo bombing 2018. Both I think are fairly unlikely.

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Tourn46
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Tourn46 »

herbs wrote:Lorenzo bombing 2018.
I always run the risk here because I have 46 in my username... But I still don't believe I've seen anything that suggests JL99 will be any better in 2018. Of course, his talent is undeniable on a Yamaha... But I still honestly don't see it happening on a Ducati.

I'll be happy for someone to quote this in November 2018 to prove me wrong, but my gut feeling is that we'll see no significant improvement.

I honestly would rather as many battling at the front as possible...

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

It seemed to be going right for JL at the end of the season. If that's a predictor then we will see more of JL in 2018. How that relates to a 2019 contract is the question, suppose that depends on who's currently forking the bill the JL and how they think about it. I'll put some odd's on it [a complete armchair expert guess that is];
50% Stays at Ducati
10% Returns to Yamaha to replace the retiring VR
20% Suzuki
15% KTM
5% Aprilla
5% Honda to replace a retiring DP
A career ending injury for one of the top riders would change the odds
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andrebt
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by andrebt »

CLX wrote:I think I'd rather see Zarco at KTM. It'd help spread the talent through the factories and, assuming both KTM and him build on their potential, it could diversify the podium circle.

Speaking of, way off topic, my wife's pregant with a boy, we'll name him Johann. =D It's for Zarco and also my father and grandfather.

Congrats on the addition

the closest I'll ever be to having kids come next is the I'm going to be an uncle to twins in March.

Back on topic though I expect Rossi to once again factor into how the silly season plays out. Other than that I honestly see no big change, though I see Nakagami promotion as an indicator of future developments.

snowman
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by snowman »

So everyone thinks Vinales will resign with Yamaha.. even if Rossi signs another 2 years?

Seems like I read somewhere the Pedrosa to Yamaha rumor last year was true. Pedrosa / Rea Aprilia has a nice ring to it.

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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Japhrodisiac »

snowman wrote:So everyone thinks Vinales will resign with Yamaha.. even if Rossi signs another 2 years?

Seems like I read somewhere the Pedrosa to Yamaha rumor last year was true. Pedrosa / Rea Aprilia has a nice ring to it.
Pedrosa to Yamaha makes no sense unless they lose both Rossi to retirement and MV jumps ship in that case Zarco and Pedrosa or Zarco and JLo would be the most likely team pairing for the factory

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Tourn46
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Tourn46 »

I'm going to be boring and predict for 2019...

YFR = VR & MV
HRC = MM & DP

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Mikesbytes
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Mikesbytes »

Tourn46 wrote:I'm going to be boring and predict for 2019...

YFR = VR & MV
HRC = MM & DP
I hate you and agree, therefor I also hate myself :lol:

So Tourn46, under that scenario, what happens to Zarco?
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pom
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by pom »

I agree as well. seems the most likely scenario. Not the funniest though :mrgreen: .
Last edited by pom on Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Tourn46
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Re: Silly Season 2018

Post by Tourn46 »

Mikesbytes wrote:
Tourn46 wrote:I'm going to be boring and predict for 2019...

YFR = VR & MV
HRC = MM & DP
I hate you and agree, therefor I also hate myself :lol:

So Tourn46, under that scenario, what happens to Zarco?
KTM... Alongside Pol 8-)

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