2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

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Fred Gassit
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2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

I've got a feeling Lorenzo will ..........ummmm........ not be in a good mood by about this time next year. How diplomatic/pragmatic about it he will be is another thing altogether. Extrapolation later........ ;) 8-) (as in, I think everyone can see it happening as well......)

Vinales. Rossi not such good friends with him by about this time, or a bit later, next year as well ? Don't know on that one.........could go either way.

Iannone. I'm 50/50. See how the Suzuki pans out over the rest of the season, but if Mugello is an indication of performance improvement....... he might enjoy sticking it to his previous employer. ;) 8-)


Pedrosa and Marquez. I'm calling more of the same. Marquez making up for the bikes shortcomings, with he and Pedrosa both saying what they are saying this season.


Thoughts ?

EDIT.

The "might" in the topic heading is the key. This isn't about mud-slinging on Jorge ( for eg), in his case I am basing it on how things affect him when they are less than how he would like them to be. To be fair, he has done just as well, and reacted/coped quite well when the Yamaha was below par two seasons ago. Maybe the ...."faults/cracks" we are seeing in the façade this season and the end last season are solely down to the situation of the environment he is in now/then. That said, it is also a part of his make up. They all have strengths and weaknesses. Of equal measure in that regard is the way Rossi reacts to teammates who become a threat.

Something to factor in when making an un-biased, purely observational reply.

The same goes for the others. Just a topic to be a pundit in, that's all. ;) :)


Have at it. :D

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CLX
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by CLX »

Going by today's races, Lorenzo might very well be in a terrific mood by this time next year. The GP16 seemed to lack nothing this weekend except a good start for Ianonne and a fully fit Dovizioso.

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Wolfman
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Wolfman »

I predict that Lorenzo will win a lot of races next year on a Ducati, but that Rossi is going to have a more calm championship, because the Ducati isn´t like the Yamaha seems to be, a all-rounder, but on the hands of Lorenzo, we will see were the Ducati places in Jerez, Assen, Sachs, Motegi, Valencia.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by andrebt »

In the case of Vinales I just hope he doesn't become another Spies and Lorenzo the jury is still out on him

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

If Ducati can get a handle on their reliability issues and Vinales can learn to properly start a race we will be in for a nice scrap. Less likely, if Suzuki can find traction + help Iannone get up to speed as quickly as possible, and by some miracle of God Honda sorts their issues out as well, all bets are off. It will be a royal rumble.

Looking from thousands of miles away through several layers of secrecy, it seems to me the most obvious things for Honda to try would be to go back to the old engine rotation and put as much fuel under the rider as possible. In theory that would help with grip under acceleration and braking and enable more engine braking help to bring the rear into that equation. Another idea would be, if they have a screamer firing order, would be to get rid of it for something closer to a big bang. Again, that could help a lot with rear grip, as it did tremendously for Yamaha. The situation is desperate so they really have nothing to lose at this point.

Suzuki seems to have a store brand Yamaha (with more HP!) so they may just need more time to sort things out. Yamaha's engineering will always reign supreme but I'm really feeling like Suzuki can come very close. We will see what Maverick does as the year progresses.

No matter how you slice it or how things play out it looks like we have the most even match of bikes in a long time, if not ever... largely in part to those concessions everyone thought would spell the end of MotoGP. As far as the bikes go Dorna has been vindicated in their strategy IMO.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

CLX wrote:Going by today's races, Lorenzo might very well be in a terrific mood by this time next year. The GP16 seemed to lack nothing this weekend except a good start for Ianonne and a fully fit Dovizioso.
I don't know on that one. I thought Mugello would have suited the Duc's as much as any circuit is going to. High speed/HP circuit. Bad start or not, fully fit or not ( though a sore neck would certainly affect more than a bad start). Marquez made up ground ....lots of ground..... to Lorenzo on bike that can't stop wheeling or put it's power to the ground a) very well b) in a nice, useable way.

The Ducs were more than 4 seconds off at the finish. At a guess, Iannone made up his ground from the bad start, but by the time he got to where he should have been by the first corner ( position wise, not distance to the front...that boat was loooong gone ), his tyre/tyres were shot. Maybe Lorenzo's smoothness will help compared to Iannones aggressiveness (see him backing that thing into turn one while the front was pushing !), but then again Dovi is pretty smooth and supple in his riding. He's no Lorenzo, but he's hardly an aggressive rider (compared to Iannone).

To me the Duc seems good in the early part of a race, but uses it's tyres a lot to get that grunt onto pavement.

To be honest, and in no way comparing the ability of the two, I think Lorenzo is going to go as well as Iannone on his ( Iannone's) best day....just more often/consistently.

Watching Iannone push that thing last race, it hardly looked comfortable, predictable ( I was waiting, in Iannones case, for that front to go any time on the way into turn one. Sure, he had it under as much control as you'd expect, but being a Michelin, he was only going to find out it wouldn't when it didn't ;) ) or smooth.......three things Lorenzo likes to have to maximise his effort and confidence.

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JanBros
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by JanBros »

Fred Gassit wrote: The Ducs were more than 4 seconds off at the finish. At a guess, Iannone made up his ground from the bad start, but by the time he got to where he should have been by the first corner ( position wise, not distance to the front...that boat was loooong gone ), his tyre/tyres were shot.
To me the Duc seems good in the early part of a race, but uses it's tyres a lot to get that grunt onto pavement.
you don't have to guess, you can look it up : http://resources.motogp.com/files/resul ... 1_4e8b6314

appart from the first 4 laps, he was as fast as Jorge the whole race.
laps 16-19 he lost a bit to pass Dovi, and on lap 21 when Dani mixed it up, but he's last lap tell's to me he's tires where absolutly not shot.
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Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Fair enough.

I'm too busy too look stuff up these days. I count on you lot to put me straight if I've missed something. :)

Thanks Jan ! :D

Another question though, what was the difference between Iannones' and Dovis' lap times ? (as Dovi is closer, not the same, but closer, to the way Lorenzo rides..........which really means f%#k all anyway..... ;) :lol: because Dovi had a buggered neck for that race....and most of them these days )

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

Yea I think Iannone and Maverick both had "fight at the front" pace. You have to admire Jorge's starts though. Where else but the start can you gain 4 places in half a straightaway?

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by motor »

hdot wrote:You have to admire Jorge's starts though. Where else but the start can you gain 4 places in half a straightaway?
Hell yeah so true...what amazing work.

I keep wondering why the dude would give (much of) a shit about qualifying when it's almost a bloody given that he'll fly to the front in the first 5 seconds anyway

Or maybe that's what irritates him, knowing that he can gap others just by the start if from pole...maybe his excellent getaway strategy is probably a bit predicated, while not (at all) being overly dependent, on the same
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Tourn46
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Tourn46 »

motor wrote:
hdot wrote:You have to admire Jorge's starts though. Where else but the start can you gain 4 places in half a straightaway?
Hell yeah so true...what amazing work.

I keep wondering why the dude would give (much of) a shit about qualifying when it's almost a bloody given that he'll fly to the front in the first 5 seconds anyway

Or maybe that's what irritates him, knowing that he can gap others just by the start if from pole...maybe his excellent getaway strategy is probably a bit predicated, while not (at all) being overly dependent, on the same
Funny how Dani used to be almost guaranteed 1st going into the first corner.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by motor »

wow so true...long time ago, weird
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

If I could shoot to first out of the gate 99% of the time I would...

At the same time though I've found it's a lot more stressful maintaining a lead than chasing someone down. That Jorge is able to get great starts, maintain a soul crushing pace, AND get down and dirty when need be speaks to the depth of his riding abilities. He's definitely a twat in his post race celebrations, but hell I would be too. Everyone can't be Mr. Congenial

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Gustav O »

I am very curious to know if Ramon Forcada and Wilco Zeelenberg will follow Jorge to Ducati. Wilco seems to be a Yamaha guy through and through so I don´t think he will come but Ramon is imho crucial to Lorenzo's success.
The choice byt Ducati to keep Dovi instead of Iannone is for me sure sign they want Lorenzo to win as Dovi is much more of a team player than Iannone and as far as I can deshiffer a better test/development rider. I also think that Casey and Jorges mutual respect will pay dividents for Lorenzo´s perfromance. Both of them would love to stick it to Rossi once more.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Don't know if it's changed in the meantime, but when it was still a speculated move ( Lorenzo to Duc), I thought Wilco and Ramon were on the record as saying they would be staying at Yamaha, no matter what Jorge did.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by AJracing »

Fred Gassit wrote:Don't know if it's changed in the meantime, but when it was still a speculated move ( Lorenzo to Duc), I thought Wilco and Ramon were on the record as saying they would be staying at Yamaha, no matter what Jorge did.
Wilco stays - 99%
Quote:
When I asked Wilco Zeelenberg whether he would follow Lorenzo if he left when the Spaniard was in talks with Honda, during 2014, Zeelenberg made it clear that he was a Yamaha man, and would stay at Yamaha.
http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/motogp/ ... ore-108587

Ramon stays - 80% (50% merit to Yam(value of employer), 30% to MV coming in(new rider, new project), and the 20% goes to doubt that he may follow Lorenzo to Ducati).
If I were them, I wouldn't leave simply because I KNOW my employer. Years of relationships built with the staff etc etc would keep me. Plus they have already been world champions with JL - The chance to do this again with another young rider seems more attractive to me. The risk vs reward ratio leans more towards risk obviously and I don't think that they have the same motivations as Lorenzo to leave.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Japhrodisiac »

The was a point a few years back when JLo was struggling and he wanted to replace Forcada. I'm guessing Forcada hasn't forgotten the lack of loyalty then and will stay with Yam.

Maybe Stoner can convince Burgess that it's worth the trouble ? (99% kidding)

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

From what I've read here, trusting my interpretation is correct and in no way intended as bashing, Lorenzo is by all accounts hard work, or perhaps a better description is time consuming, when it comes to making sure his head space is in a happy place.....for want of more typing looking for a more accurate description..... ;) Apologies if that is taken in the wrong way.

Maybe, as alluded to in other posts above, Wilco and Ramon would be looking forward to the challenge of tutoring a new, younger rider....as well as being Yamaha men.

......or to take the cynical route, maybe the thought of the work involved keeping Lorenzo in his happy head-space at Ducati was something they would not relish.


And for the pragmatic route, Who do Dovi and Iannone have in their corner ? Their own entourage , or people that work for/were already part of the Ducati team ?

Just thinking of the Rossi/Burgess experience at Duc, and that maybe "outsiders" (for want of a better term), don't quite gel with the way the factory operates ?

As AJ said, "knowing your employer", and all that..... better off to stay and work with the relationships they've forged/invested in, and the knowledge of how to get things done within the structure of Yamaha ?

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by mugs »

I'd imagine Lorenzo will start the year incredibly strong. Dovi at Qatar has been formidable these past two years and this year Iannoni was right in the mix before crashing. Similarly at Argentina both Ducs were in very strong positions until things went wrong. Assuming Lorenzo doesn't get onto the GP17 and instantly hate it then he might very well start the year with back to back wins. COTA will still be won by Marc though.

What happens after that I just don't know. I'd imagine Rossi to be right on it in the first two races and also when the circus comes back to Europe. Honda are the big question mark in my mind, I can't imagine they won't improve over this year and if that's the case then surely Marc will be fighting for wins everywhere, and hopefully Dani will be closer to the front too.

Suzuki I can see struggling to begin with, I'm certainly very interested to see how Iannone can adapt, he's incredibly aggressive on the Duc and I don't know whether the Suzuki will be receptive to that style, considering Vinales is smoother than Aleix and he's certainly faster.

The good thing is that it should be a more open championship. Already this year it's looking like the only winners will be Lorenzo, Rossi and Marc. Possibly if it rains someone else may benefit, or if the heavens align maybe a Duc at Phillip Island, but next year it'll be those three, probably Dani, later in the year maybe Vinales and even maybe Iannone? By then the title may be done and dusted but the last few rounds could be epic as that lot fight for race wins.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

mugs wrote:
Suzuki I can see struggling to begin with, I'm certainly very interested to see how Iannone can adapt, he's incredibly aggressive on the Duc and I don't know whether the Suzuki will be receptive to that style, considering Vinales is smoother than Aleix and he's certainly faster.
Yeah, I don't know and am curious as well. Iannone has certainly been aggressive this season, in so far as bike attitude on entry and passing moves, but the last couple of seasons he's been (for the most part) almost un-Iannone in his riding/attitude. Funny ( ironic ) that with the aggression/riding to prove his place in the team he has slipped back into Moto 2 Iannone mode and results.

Wonder if having the certainty of a new contract ( as certain as those things are.....) and a new team/bike will see him go back to the methodology of the last couple of seasons ? Be good if it did. ;)


Lorenzo, yeah, as you said. I'm only speculating based on what we know of the Duc, and Lorenzos' character ( or supposedly know through print and vision/interviews). He , and Ducati, could find this is the bike he's made for and go on from strength to strength.

Can't see it though.......I'd agree with you. Everyone will be singing his praises for at least two of the first three rounds....... then will come Europe. :? Not that he will then be languishing in fifth spot, or not winning here or there. Just that we will see more of his ability to fight through the pack and for wins than he thought Mugello showed. I would suggest he will be plumbing depths even he didn't know he had.

Also not sure if a bike that suits Stoner will be a bike that suits Lorenzo or Dovi. Having said that, I'd also bet Stoner is a feedback genius and that he will be evaluating the bike on it's merits/base characteristics, rather than he or Ducati building a bike for him per-se.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Japhrodisiac »

There will be races that he just runs away and wins, and races with furrowed brows. I also think he will win Qatar and think the Duc will suit him. Gigi is one of the best, if not the best in the business now and understands the task ahead.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

After Qatar, maybe Argentina, and quite possibly Mugello....I'd throw him in as an almost certain at Phillip Island and Sepang. In between those, I would struggle to pick one that won't be really hard work. Not that he can't or won't, just that it will be hard work.


To move away from the Lorenzo thing for a bit, where's the money on who will get a Suzuki onto the top step first ? Iannone or Vinales ?

...........be a turn up for the books if Aliex's anger saw him drag it up there over those two. I'd like that. :) Same as I'd like Iannone to grab one for Duc just before he walks out the door....... 8-)

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by AnOldTimer »

I guess it comes down to perspective. From my point of view, Rossi (through skill or luck) has accumulated quite a few points this year from Michelin's wild swings in tire quality. "IF's" don't count, but it looks like Dovi, Crazy Joe, and Maverick will be Rossi's main competition for the rest of the year rather than Marc or Jorge. It's hard to tell from one race, but Dani may have turned the corner as well.

A lot depends on Michelin, but I suspect that it will be a two-way race for the championship, and a six-way fight for third. Of course, Rossi was running quite well at Mugello until the engine let go, but up until the last race, it looked like he had fourth- or fifth-place race pace to me.

Everyone seems to be benefiting from the improved tire situation, but it seems to me that Rossi may get the least benefit from it, as he seemed to be dealing with the tire lottery better that the other leading riders.

My guess is that we will see a lot of good races this year, and perhaps a few new race winners, as well as more of a mix on the podiums. I would be surprised if Ducati doesn't win a race or two, and/or if Suzuki does win.

2017 seems pretty wide open. I don't see any particular advantage for Yamaha, or disadvantage for Ducati or Honda. I would expect to see Suzuki on the podium somewhat regularly as well. It would be great if KTM and/or Aprilia could regularly put bikes at the fast end of the grid, but it may take a couple of years. Suzuki's progress has been quite impressive, IMHO. I would expect that Ducati will win regularly and Suzuki occasionally.

I doubt that either Ducati or Lorenzo will have regrets about their choices. I'm not convinced that Maverick will live up to his hype, but if he does, expect one Mr Rossi to show his displeasure. Honda will continue to be strong, and Suzuki should get even better.
Last edited by AnOldTimer on Thu May 26, 2016 4:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by smAshmoto »

Personally, I think Lorenzo's in the shit going to Duc. He's a perfectionist and that thing is far from perfect.
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Japhrodisiac »

smAshmoto wrote:Personally, I think Lorenzo's in the shit going to Duc. He's a perfectionist and that thing is far from perfect.
Stoner is going to earn his paycheck getting the GP17 ready for Valencia test

Ducati now has the Engineers, the money, the test team, the rider, a decent base platform, it's just a matter of when not if imo. That GP16 is much more of an all rounder than any previous Ducati GP bike

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