2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class
Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Is Stoner full time test rider, or just part-time "Sometimes I still feel like riding/maybe I can help" brand ambassador like he was at Hells' Racing Corporation ?

kenup283
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by kenup283 »

I think 2017 could go two ways:

3 riders score wins across 2 manufactures or 5 riders score wins across 4 manufactures.

So splitting the differnce I'll go with 4 riders and 3 makes to bag wins in 2017.

Regarding Lorenzo and Duc. There is plenty to be nervous about.

We are going to want to see some imptovement in the later half of the year to see if the 16 is any step forwards over the 15.

I also like Iannone on the Suzuki. Going back to Moto2 he rode the heck out of machines that otherwise we're not front runners.

Other than that look fwd to KTM on the grid. Also we haven't really seen sattalite teams with a good shot at a win or consitent podiums in a few years. I expect that to continue.

andrebt
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by andrebt »

I don't expect KTM to make same mistake twice so they'll probably do much better this time around.

Like I said my big concern is all this hype around MV....great rider but there always the likelihood he'll end up being another Spies.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

I don't get the hype there either. Except to say that there are few to have done what he's been doing. It depends on how the Suzuki is quantified or compared really, I suppose.

Is it better than a Tech three Yamaha or Satellite Honda ? (serious question)

Would any of the riders on any of those bikes be doing what he has with the Suzuki ?

He gets crap starts, but generally his pace is very fast and consistent.....and he stays upright, by and large.

I wouldn't say "Alien" (man, I hate that term !), but if your Lorenzo left, and Pedrosa was the other option you had, you wouldn't kick Vinales out of the garage for farting. ;)


The con for him would be, if Yamaha doesn't work out well for him........where's he going then ? If Iannone makes a decent fist of his opportunity at Suzuki, and whoever they pencil in to replace poor old AE does likewise, then fair wager Suzuki won't be interested in his services.

Honda ? Doubt it.......maybe a satellite Honda. KTM ? Aprillia ?? Despite everyones hopes, thoughts and dreams, they haven't ( Aprillia at any rate) achieved anywhere near what Suzuki has managed to achieve yet....and I can't see them doing it either, not for quite a while. Money and Engineering dept aren't an excuse when you're being compared, in regards to timeline and achievements, to Suzuki.....

There may have been more benefits to being the next Schwantz than first thought.......well....a safer option for a couple of seasons at any rate.....he could've always had the bike performance to fall back on as a reason. If he doesn't make good use of what is generally perceived as the best bike on the grid, he's got no-where to hide........

hdot
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

smAshmoto wrote:Personally, I think Lorenzo's in the shit going to Duc. He's a perfectionist and that thing is far from perfect.
GP17 has a lot going for it... power, drive, Gigi's leadership, decent handling. It's a little weak on the brakes, but Lorenzo is an early soft braker anyway. Big issue with Ducati will be reliability, particularly with their electronics, but also with surprisingly basic stuff like water pumps (????). A mechanical DNF would legitimately infuriate Lorenzo so they definitely need to work on that.

But let's not forget... Iannone has had race winning pace for several laps in race conditions. With the right setup and Lorenzo's picture perfect starts I could see him doing damage out of the gate. The bike is definitely capable of winning... it just needs an alien and more reliability.

Upon1
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Upon1 »

Fred Gassit wrote:I don't get the hype there either. Except to say that there are few to have done what he's been doing. It depends on how the Suzuki is quantified or compared really, I suppose.

Is it better than a Tech three Yamaha or Satellite Honda ? (serious question)

Would any of the riders on any of those bikes be doing what he has with the Suzuki ?

He gets crap starts, but generally his pace is very fast and consistent.....and he stays upright, by and large.

I wouldn't say "Alien" (man, I hate that term !), but if your Lorenzo left, and Pedrosa was the other option you had, you wouldn't kick Vinales out of the garage for farting. ;)


The con for him would be, if Yamaha doesn't work out well for him........where's he going then ? If Iannone makes a decent fist of his opportunity at Suzuki, and whoever they pencil in to replace poor old AE does likewise, then fair wager Suzuki won't be interested in his services.

Honda ? Doubt it.......maybe a satellite Honda. KTM ? Aprillia ?? Despite everyones hopes, thoughts and dreams, they haven't ( Aprillia at any rate) achieved anywhere near what Suzuki has managed to achieve yet....and I can't see them doing it either, not for quite a while. Money and Engineering dept aren't an excuse when you're being compared, in regards to timeline and achievements, to Suzuki.....

There may have been more benefits to being the next Schwantz than first thought.......well....a safer option for a couple of seasons at any rate.....he could've always had the bike performance to fall back on as a reason. If he doesn't make good use of what is generally perceived as the best bike on the grid, he's got no-where to hide........
I think to be fair to Vinales he's only had one poor start in France. Mugello was a problem with the clutch/electronics that threw him backwards at a rate of knots. Also, the people who make these decisions have seen something in Vinales. Our own David has said the same thing. I think it's all well and good to look forward but to predict his demise at Yamaha and where to from there is a bit extreme. He has most of the markings of an Alien, his style is akin to Lorenzo's, he has outpaced his teammate fairly regularly. I think all the signs are there for great success. But the biggest sign for me is, as I said before, the people who's job it is to know these things are confident.

Regarding the question about Stoner's testing regime, I believe one of the reasons he left Honda was that he felt they weren't utilising him enough as opposed to him saying, "I feel like riding a bit". Coupled with that was obviously his injuries last year from the 8 hour, but I definitely got the impression that he wanted to do more than they let him. I have been a bit surprised that he hasn't tested since Qatar though. I thought he would after the MotoGP but he was very firm on the fact that he was there to watch the bikes live and for a "technical meeting". It was also very interesting to hear him say that he's looking forward to working with Lorenzo having fought against him for so long. And that he knows a few things that makes him tick. Very interested to see how that goes.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Yeah sorry, I didn't mean to sound harsh in regards to Mav.

I agree, most likely to become the one to step up to the level of the other four. I just don't get certain sections of the media proclaiming he's "it".

More than likely will be, and his performances to date are testament to that possibility/eventuality, but I don't like putting the cart before the horse.

Yeah...Stoners role is a curious one, and will be interesting to see exactly how much he ends up doing.

I find it equally intriguing as to what really went on behind the scenes with Honda. One minute, he's the bees-knees...the next he's pissed at quitting rumours being leaked, then quits. As much as I don't doubt the reasons he gave for finishing up, I also can't help feel there's more to it.

Honda keep him on a string, which now seems like it was engineered to keep from changing his mind and riding for someone else, with statements claiming they are glad to still have him doing some work, as his opinion and input is something they value...........then they disregard the same opinions and input out of hand !?

Really weird. Will be a good read if/when he spills the beans on all of that.


Pedrosas' post career book is another I will be looking forward to reading.

Upon1
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Upon1 »

I totally agree on that, some people are writing his name on the trophy for next year which is too much...but as I said I equally don't agree with writing him off. I mean, when Lorenzo came to the top level it was expected that he will, in the near future, be a championship contender. With Casey Stoner for example, I think there were very few people, unfortunately me included, that realised how good he actually was. I wanted him to be that good, but didn't actually expect it you know?

I agree with all that. They want him on board as a tester, won't let him test. When they do, disregard his feedback. Don't want him to retire, won't let him stand in for Pedrosa. I think the whole, "I'm not retiring" thing was at that point he actually hadn't made up his mind. Man was he cranky that someone leaked that!

hdot
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

Vinales has alien pace, but then so does Iannone. I guess the difference between them is Vinales is not known as a "maniac".

It seems like the barrier between aliens and humans with alien pace all comes down to the starts.... Lorenzo, Marquez, Pedrosa and Rossi seem to revel in slicing and dicing through slower traffic with frightening efficiency. When Vinales gets space he can match them, and when he finds himself close to the front like he did at Argentina he can battle with them. So if Yamaha can help him master his starts he will be a real problem.

Japhrodisiac
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Japhrodisiac »

Vinales shows promise, but then so have a lot of people.

MV has podiumed because he has ridden well and also because of non finishers in front of him. His teammate beat him soundly last year, but MV seems to have his measure this season. What is most promising about Vinales is the steady progression forward and lack of dumb mistakes, combined with speed and relative consistency. Good ingredients but sometimes they don't work out.

The thing that pretty much all 'aliens' have (I hate that term too but it seems to have stuck) is that they have won or podiumed straight away. Maybe that's harder to do now, maybe not.

hdot
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

I am by no means a MotoGP historian, but as I understand it the grid has never been stronger. Last year there were at least 4 guys who were good for a win (though only 3 actually did), and when Pedrosa came back in there were 4. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati were all in fighting shape with 2 easy podium contenders a piece. Etc. I know people say it's not fair to compare eras, but again as I understand it the field was nowhere near as competitive as it was last year. I mean you even look as recently as Marquez' debut; 2013 Ducati was a non factor and IIRC Honda had the seamless box while Yamaha didn't. Stoner left, Rossi had just got back to Yamaha after being in the dark at Ducati, no Iannone, no P Espargaro, no Aleix on a competitive bike and half the field on POS CRT bikes.... the stars aligned for him. Riders finish races now a lot closer than they did back during Lorenzo and Rossi's debuts, speaking to the level of competitiveness. So I think to a degree Vinales has been a bit overhyped, but on the flipside the fact that he has alien pace in this highly competitive year says something.

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SirSinCity
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by SirSinCity »

hdot wrote:I am by no means a MotoGP historian, but as I understand it the grid has never been stronger. Last year there were at least 4 guys who were good for a win (though only 3 actually did), and when Pedrosa came back in there were 4. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati were all in fighting shape with 2 easy podium contenders a piece. Etc. I know people say it's not fair to compare eras, but again as I understand it the field was nowhere near as competitive as it was last year. I mean you even look as recently as Marquez' debut; 2013 Ducati was a non factor and IIRC Honda had the seamless box while Yamaha didn't. Stoner left, Rossi had just got back to Yamaha after being in the dark at Ducati, no Iannone, no P Espargaro, no Aleix on a competitive bike and half the field on POS CRT bikes.... the stars aligned for him. Riders finish races now a lot closer than they did back during Lorenzo and Rossi's debuts, speaking to the level of competitiveness. So I think to a degree Vinales has been a bit overhyped, but on the flipside the fact that he has alien pace in this highly competitive year says something.
Totally agree with your assessment. I have been following multiple two wheeled racing series since 1981 and what I have noticed is that there is usually one guy, sometimes two that is clearly faster than everyone else. Motorcycle Grand Prix racing fit that description until we had Rossi, Stoner and Pedrosa battling for wins, then came Lorenzo and later Marquez.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Agree and disagree. I think it comes down to how level the playing field is. To go back to the same era, the talent of the day was more often than not hamstrung by the machinery they were astride. As with any given era, there are one or two who would appear to be above the other two or three, but then it was more debatable due to the equipment of the day. Take the Lawson, Doohan, Gardner, Rainey , Schwantz era of 88 to 92. If the Hondas' were as capable/friendly/pliable as the Yam or Zook at the time, who's to say how that would have panned out ?



Same as now, If Smith, Crutchlow, Petrucci.....Gordon Bennet, name anyone you want ( sort of), were all on factory equipment ( or closer to factory than they are now....), they would still probably finish in the same positions, but the distance back from the front might not be so great.

And there may even be the days where everything gels just nicely and they do a Guarriga or Pons.....or a McCoy, or a Crafar etc.


Then again, all this is the very nature of GP racing. Haves, and have nots. Beattie ( for eg) may not have been a Doohan, but it is often forgotten that at the end of the season ( his first) he was rewarded with the offer of racing an RC45 in WSBK, he'd out-pointed Doohan by a fair margin in the championship.......on the same equipment.

Haves, and have nots. ;) :)

Causa Sui
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Causa Sui »

hdot wrote:I am by no means a MotoGP historian, but as I understand it the grid has never been stronger. Last year there were at least 4 guys who were good for a win (though only 3 actually did), and when Pedrosa came back in there were 4. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati were all in fighting shape with 2 easy podium contenders a piece. Etc. I know people say it's not fair to compare eras, but again as I understand it the field was nowhere near as competitive as it was last year. I mean you even look as recently as Marquez' debut; 2013 Ducati was a non factor and IIRC Honda had the seamless box while Yamaha didn't. Stoner left, Rossi had just got back to Yamaha after being in the dark at Ducati, no Iannone, no P Espargaro, no Aleix on a competitive bike and half the field on POS CRT bikes.... the stars aligned for him. Riders finish races now a lot closer than they did back during Lorenzo and Rossi's debuts, speaking to the level of competitiveness. So I think to a degree Vinales has been a bit overhyped, but on the flipside the fact that he has alien pace in this highly competitive year says something.

You can teach steadiness but you can't teach pure speed, that's the main conclusion I drew from the "Alien" generation. What is the common point between these people when they started ? JL beat his illustrious teammate on his first race, Stoner took the pole on his 2nd motogp race with a satellite bike, DP finished 2nd on the opening round of his rookie season, we all know what MM achieved in his first year. MV, despite already being one of the fastest rider on planet earth, might be the exception that proves the rule, but there are some signs implying he could be just that, a very fast human being, not an "Alien".

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Well, he's moving to a bike that doesn't have the issues that are bothering him with his current bike. We'll see where he's at by this time next season and be able to have a better base from which to speculate. ;)

If he can't harass Old man Rossi regularly, on equal equipment....... well..... ;) :lol:

We'll see.

At the moment though, he's doing a good job on a bike that isn't quite there yet.

Phillip Ireland
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Phillip Ireland »

SirSinCity wrote:
hdot wrote:I am by no means a MotoGP historian, but as I understand it the grid has never been stronger. Last year there were at least 4 guys who were good for a win (though only 3 actually did), and when Pedrosa came back in there were 4. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati were all in fighting shape with 2 easy podium contenders a piece.

Totally agree with your assessment. I have been following multiple two wheeled racing series since 1981 and what I have noticed is that there is usually one guy, sometimes two that is clearly faster than everyone else. Motorcycle Grand Prix racing fit that description until we had Rossi, Stoner and Pedrosa battling for wins, then came Lorenzo and later Marquez.



Not forgetting that in 1999 there were six GP winners, and in the 2000 season there were EIGHT ! Yes, not all aliens by any means, but great variety in those days after Mick retired.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Interesting. How much is "a bit of time" ?


http://www.motogp.com/en/in%20the%20med ... ugh/204057

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Squidpuppet »

Two years. :lol:

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

Full term you think ?


Quote Dovi "“[There are] positive and negatives. For example, today the grip on the rear was so good but it was difficult to manage the front, so like always when there is a change of the rules you have to manage the situation,”

Achilles heel with a bullseye on it.

....maybe less than two years. Wonder if there's escape clauses for both parties ?


Said with pragmatism, taking into account things that rattle Jorges' confidence, or ability to best exploit his talents on a motorcycle....not said with any trace of schadenfreude.

Given Ducatis' draconian free speech clause in their contacts one thing is for certain, he won't be saying things like this....multiple world champ or not...


Always with the Yamaha it has been difficult in all the years, the lack of grip [in the wet]. With a lot of rain I've never been one of the fastest riders. When it's raining and grippy, like in Malaysia, I can be 1.5 seconds faster than everyone but there is rain and I don't trust the tyres it's not ideal. But it's important to be competitive in all the situations. Let's see what I can do.”

Yes, he's mostly being honest/gracious in that comment, and talking about himself. There is no way he will be allowed to use the manufacturers name in any comments from the start of next season though. Read Iannone and Dovis' comments. How do you impart to the person asking the question that a fair bit of it is bike, without saying it's the bike ? They've both gotten very good at it....... ;)

Read more at http://www.crash.net/motogp/news/231627 ... C53UmPT.99

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Squidpuppet
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Squidpuppet »

Fred Gassit wrote:Full term you think ?
Yep. I think it's going to be a disaster. I'm not saying the Duc is junk, I just don't that bike and Jorge's style are going to work well together.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by AJracing »

Squidpuppet wrote:
Fred Gassit wrote:Full term you think ?
Yep. I think it's going to be a disaster. I'm not saying the Duc is junk, I just don't that bike and Jorge's style are going to work well together.
Every year we get hyped up on how the Ducati is different/better/faster/stronger. Reality sets in just about this time of year when we really see the cream rise again and STAY on top. They have had some bad luck as well in terms of winning a race but in the end the whole year is there to even it out.
I agree with you - I think Lorenzo made a bad call and rushed the contract situation and got sucked in by Gigi, Stoner New Ducati / and Rossi helped the process as well in his own way. Lorenzo better pack on some endurance muscle to wrestle that beast of a machine and hope he can do it for 20+ laps for 18 weekends. Tough times ahead.

Fred Gassit
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fred Gassit »

After what Assen showed, I am even more inclined to think that there will be some drama in the Duc garage/camp next year.

This next comment will probably open up a floodgate of derisive replies, but it is not a schadenfreude comment, merely an opinion based on yesterday, and other races where the same (or similar) set of circumstances have played out.

I don't think Lorenzo has what it takes to successfully pilot the Ducati the way it currently is, and the way it will probably evolve for next season.

It's not the rain. It's not Assen. The rain, and Assen, only highlight what is a fairly large chink in his armour.

If he is to do well on the bike, there will be a lot of work for Ducati to do to give him a bike that he feels comfortable with. By contrast, Dovi, Iannone, Petrucci, Redding and Hernadez all ride with what they've got, and work with the bike. More than anyone else on the grid, Lorenzo needs the bike to work for him

Out of the four "aliens", he is the only one with such a flaw in their game. None of the others go backwards at the same rate of knots when things aren't working for them.

Fact, not hate.

Never seen anything like yesterday. Even before the conditions got bad enough for the red to come out, he was second last. I would never have picked that.

........then again, I wouldn't have picked Miller on the top step either ! ;) :lol:

hdot
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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by hdot »

I don't think Lorenzo is the only one with that issue. Dani's kind of got the same problems. I would argue that Marquie and Rossi are freaks in their ability to adapt, rather than that Jorge or Dani are no good at their ability to adapt. Granted, Jorge definitely seems to be struggling a ton with these new tires, but the tires are still an evolving variable, and I'm guessing/hoping that by next year that will be settled and Ducati will be able to really fine tune the GP17 to the tires and Lorenzo's fickle needs.

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by AJracing »

hdot wrote:I don't think Lorenzo is the only one with that issue. Dani's kind of got the same problems. I would argue that Marquie and Rossi are freaks in their ability to adapt, rather than that Jorge or Dani are no good at their ability to adapt. Granted, Jorge definitely seems to be struggling a ton with these new tires, but the tires are still an evolving variable, and I'm guessing/hoping that by next year that will be settled and Ducati will be able to really fine tune the GP17 to the tires and Lorenzo's fickle needs.
Good point - Ducati better be working hard on the GP17..he will struggle but I expect him to take a win or two, or more.

Watched Chequered Flag for Assen - Eugune Laverty mentioned he really wants a GP16 for next year - otherwise he has some pretty good options for factory rides in WSBK...would be a shame if he left the series.
http://www.crash.net/motogp/news/231632 ... lable.html

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Re: 2017, thoughts on how the moves might pan out.

Post by Fingernails »

I think that Lorenzo at Ducati will be interesting. I believe that he will win races with them. A championship? I'm not sure. A lot will become obvious as soon as he's had a few races. Too much speculation before then could be a bit pointless.

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