Very strange....

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Zaphod
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Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

I'm not going to call it mind games, or attribute the way a race played out being down to being able to think about, and enact, psychological games while riding to within a mm of crashing...being pursued by some one doing the same.....


However, I read, and re-read, and re-read these comments. I found it all very out of character for Jorge..... After similar results in the past, despite how close or not his championship race may have been, Jorge would give statements more in line with what Marqez said in his press release.... "because we keep working and doing our best, even though our title chances are slim, so our target to the end of the year remains; The more wins, the better!"


Rossi, as he has all season, is playing the under-dog. Self depreciating and talking up the competition.......


Valentino Rossi

5th / +33.196s / 28 laps

"It's true that the championship is a lot more important that winning this race, it's the main target. Unfortunately Jorge crashed and I was able to gain another 11-points. This is good for the championship, but it's a shame to miss out on the podium, because I wanted to arrive in the top three in front of all the spectators. It was a crazy race and when you have to change the bike, in this case twice, you need luck and rapid thinking to understand the situation. Fifth is still a good result and we're looking forward to the next race in Aragon. There are still five races left and unfortunately Lorenzo has the ability to win at every single one and Marquez is also always strong, so there are still a lot of points left to fight for. Aragon is always a difficult track, but we did some tests there and my lap times weren't so bad, so we have to try to do a good race and arrive on the podium."




Lorenzo's statement seems angry....... but not at falling. The last sentence did make me think back to people like Kochinski, Biaggi.

Jorge Lorenzo

DNF / -8 laps

"Two races with bad luck in a row, because the circumstances were wet and abnormal. In Silverstone I didn't have the confidence and here I didn't have the pace to warm up the tyre well, so I entered the corner with slicks that were still cold and lost the rear. I think I've been unlucky this year in general, but especially these last two races, because I could have won both or finished second, but that's racing. In previous years, my rivals in the championship crashed and this year it's me who's unlucky, but all is not lost. If I win all the coming races I can still become the World Champion and it wouldn't matter in what position Valentino would finish in."





There is definitely a very large Psych game being played, and it would appear it's hitting it's mark. The way Jorge personalised what seems to come across as some form of anger/frustration/feeling of being robbed.


It's normal to state you feel like it was a bit of bad luck. It's normal to talk yourself up, to maintain belief and confidence when things aren't going your way at the moment.

To personalise at one individual ?

Frustration causing the wobbles ? From where I sit, it would seem so.


EDIT. If there isn't a psych game, can someone tell me why, after they both tried them and deciding they didn't really do anything, did Rossi grid up wearing wings ( Taking into account Krops statement regarding someone having something on their bike that Lorenzo doesn't... and how that type of thing rattles Jorge's cage). I am not implying that the wings made one iota of difference to bike performance, but seeing as they both wrote them off during FP and QP....surely it's having a bit of a niggle to turn up on Sunday with them on. Just to be annoying....just to interrupt a train of thought or focus....even if only for a minute.....
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Ribby 70
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Ribby 70 »

Hmmm good point :? Jorge just didnt seem happy at Silverstone at all.....

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Fingernails »

It was only when Jorge was a rookie or relative rookie that Valentino had the upper hand on him. Given Valentino being midfield at Ducati, and a functional No. 2. last year, I think it is probably having quite an impression on Jorge that Valentino is ahead. The 'bad luck' comments may be Jorge trying to maintain a self-image that he's better than Valentino.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

That is a given. It's not being critical one way or the other of any rider. For sure Lorenzo and Marquez "know" they are much faster, better riders than a 36 year old Vale. They don't write him off, I don't mean that at all, but they don't go to bed at night, or line up believing anyone else is faster than them.

Right up until Misano, I wouldn't have said the Psych existed. It didn't exist. There was just lots of hard work from Rossi to make a good race, each race weekend.


It's not a week and half ago we got some real insight into what makes Jorge good when he's good, and really not so goood when he's not so good.

And please everyone, I'm not implying the bloke is rubbish at all....so don't respond with that kind of stuff.

I also don't mean Rossi has been planning and playing this since the start of the season........ but I will imply his eye is open to opportune moments. Silverstone, for Lorenzo, was a result which added another dose of pressure to his season. For me, it is becoming the pivotal moment. There's been no games, barbs or any of the "Biaggi days Rossi " from Vale up to and including Silverstone. His post race rhetoric hasn't changed from the start of the season either "I'm very happy to win/place and we will continue to work hard for the championship, but it is going to be very difficult because everybody is much faster than little old me...."

Marquez and Lorenzo know that. On most race days the pace of three would see them in a close battle (removing poor qualifying form and bad starts /traffic) on paper. On days when either of Marquez or Lorenzo is feeling super good, Rossi cannot, and does not, match their pace.


As has been discussed, and ventured by a few, Lorenzo's "bad luck" is of his own making. Barring the helmet lining , they haven't been freak of nature occurrences that have tripped him up.....it's been decisions, or in the case of Silverstone and Assen....it's stuff that affects his confidence.


Silverstone was a pivotal moment because until then, there were enough races to come...and he was getting his mojo back, steadily reeling Rossi back in and making amends for a rough start to the season. He comes the Lorenzo show, it appeared. Worrying, to whatever degree he worries about anything, for Rossi.

Silverstone. Loss of momentum, a bit of face, and pride for Lorenzo.


A chink.

6 to go.......



Misano. Lorenzo super fast. Wings tried. Does nothing. Not going to use them. Race day, Rossi lines up with wings. Rossi always finds something on race day, and he's a coy old fox as well. Lorenzo knows that. "Eh ?!....what's he got wings on for ? We looked at the data, they do nothing.....why has he got them on ? .... Ignore it...focus start, first turn, entry, focus...why has he got them on ? "


That thing which has basically played out as written, as an example of insight into Lorenzo's mental processes by Krop . Almost word for word.... "Unless somebody's got something on their bike that he doesn't".


No point playing games until now. It would probably set Lorenzo's jaw to focus even more.

But now.....he's grumpy. He doesn't like the way the season is working out for him. Stupid rain. Stupid old man. Stupid 12 points. He lucky I let him get them.


Put the wings on.......


23 points, 5 to go.


...though still going with the season long mantra of everybody's faster than me, Lorenzo can win all the remaining races still"


The mantra came across a little less sincere, to me, this time though....



Driving home today, it also occurred to me that everybody is calling Rossi staying out on wets a stupid mistake, critical of his way of thinking/how he perceived things/his race plan....whatever you want to call it.


Sure, wasn't the right decision. Could have (should have, by rights) been a reversal of the pivotal moment.

But Lorenzo fell, by his own admission, because he got into a bit of a flap about being passed.
.....by two people who have nothing to do with the end goal. That guy was waaaaaay behind him.

I reckon he's rattled. I also reckon that little yellow fish is a Piranha, and smells blood.....


It's nothing to do with Rossi being some master of getting inside peoples heads....... he waits for them to get inside their own heads.


Find a weakness, exploit it.
Last edited by Zaphod on Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Fingernails »

Faster is not equivalent to better. Pretty much everyone agrees that Jorge is faster when top form is compared to top form. But, staying on the bike a bit more and performing consistently can make up some of that and more.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

That's right.

That's why Silverstone , for me, is a turning point ( and my point). Rossi would see and know that now Lorenzo is putting pressure on himself. He has to. Time is running out. No more seconds and thirds will do. He has to win, because every race from now on in, Rossi will (as he has done all year) still get seconds, thirds and fourths. Maybe even another win......

You're more likely to make a mistake when you're under pressure. So now is the time to do things that really mean nothing, other than to distract, or cause some sort of doubt.


Like putting on pointless wings.


I like listening to the old guys like Lawson, Rainey and Doohan recalling seasons past in detail. The things that they saw as turning points were no more than what is happening now. Someone under pressure. Work it. Do something to cause doubt, or piss them off. Something trivial to everyone else, other than the target. They don't have anything to hide now....... but they have quite a grin on their face recalling some small, unnoticed by everyone else, thing that they did which changed the whole season.....because it put another thing on an already very full plate of the opposition.


Ask Smith or Marquez what they thought of Rossi putting on the wings ? Probably didn't even notice he had them, or if they did gave it not a second thought.


They weren't the target of the exercise......... ;)



NB. I also don't mean to imply that Lorenzo spent the race riding around wondering why Rossi had the wings on. Temporary distraction. Maybe if they were close together, and Rossi tried really hard to hold a tighter line, with a better exit out of certain corners, that might make Lorenzo ponder things he shouldn't be pondering during a race. Things (tight line, better exit) that he would normally find a way to combat, probably with his usual aplomb.
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Tourn46 »

Some well versed food for thought amongst that.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

If it seems a bit scattered, I have just finished 3 x 19-20 hour shifts in a row. Coherency not a strong point at the best of times, right now I don't even know what coherency means....... brain says it seems like the appropriate word to use.


Bear in mind after four hours sleep last night, and 19 hrs work today, brain thought a nice cup of coffee would go down rather well.


...........stupid brain..... ;) :lol:
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Squidpuppet »

If I win all the coming races I can still become the World Champion and it wouldn't matter in what position Valentino would finish in."
I think that's just poorly translated or just poorly worded by Jorge.

My take on it is that it's just and observation of the math for the rest of the season, and not a nasty jab.

My translation: "If I win the remaining races, regardless of where Rossi finishes each race, I can still be Champ by two points."

I think he's just saying, "It aint over and I'm still in with a shout. The target is the same and I aint giving up."

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Cobbett »

Squidpuppet wrote:
If I win all the coming races I can still become the World Champion and it wouldn't matter in what position Valentino would finish in."
I think that's just poorly translated or just poorly worded by Jorge.

My take on it is that it's just and observation of the math for the rest of the season, and not a nasty jab.

My translation: "If I win the remaining races, regardless of where Rossi finishes each race, I can still be Champ by two points."

I think he's just saying, "It aint over and I'm still in with a shout. The target is the same and I aint giving up."
If anything I find his language strangely defeatist rather than defiant. There are 5 races left for goodness sake, not 2. JL winning the next one, and VR sliding off for the first time this year, would hardly be a thousand-to-one event, and it would put JL in the lead at a stroke with 4 left!

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Re: Very strange....

Post by dave_m »

Lorenzo: "I win all the coming races I can still become the World Champion and it wouldn't matter in what position Valentino would finish in"

I was not expecting to hear that, because it's kind of close to admitting the championship is almost over. There are 3.5 very fast riders out there right now, so taking back 5 or 10 points a round isn't impossible or even unexpected. If you're banking on winning all the races, that's desperation territory...

I mean Marquez could win the championship if he and Pedrosa finish 1-2 the rest of the year, but I'm not sure that's any less likely than Jorge winning all five remaining races.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

Squidpuppet wrote:
If I win all the coming races I can still become the World Champion and it wouldn't matter in what position Valentino would finish in."
I think that's just poorly translated or just poorly worded by Jorge.
Yeah, I thought that...but it kept nagging me, because Jorge is very measured with his words, and usually has no problem with the English language.


I'm not saying it's over, or that Rossi is rubbing his hands with glee.


All I'm saying is that Jorge is looking rattled/under-pressure, and that those wings, and in particular the last to races in general, is Rossi starting to use Jorge against Jorge. No barbs, or that kind of press work he used to do..... just subtle things.



Dave, I reckon Jorge can see that Rossi will be in full consistency mode. Not nursing the points gap to the finish, but maximising the opportunities presented. If he does that, you'd have to say you're looking at 4th as his worst position.....barring something freakish out of left field.


Jorge has to win them......

I think the tennis analogy is apt. It's still along way to go in the match, and anything can still happen....... though at this point in the game,


Advantage, Rossi.


I think it may get to deuce before the end of the season......
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Re: Very strange....

Post by smAshmoto »

Some very intriguing reading here.

Rossi's career will make a ripper movie when he eventually hangs up the leathers.
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Re: Very strange....

Post by freighttrain »

Zaphod wrote:Sure, wasn't the right decision. Could have (should have, by rights) been a reversal of the pivotal moment.

But Lorenzo fell, by his own admission, because he got into a bit of a flap about being passed.
.....by two people who have nothing to do with the end goal. That guy was waaaaaay behind him.

I reckon he's rattled. I also reckon that little yellow fish is a Piranha, and smells blood.
Some really intriguing points to think about here on this thread..
Especially these two points for myself.

While watching the race again, I myself kept thinking.. "Who the heck cares about Redding?"
Jorge new that Rossi stayed out one lap too long..
Jorge had his only competition for the title in check..
If Jorge stayed up? There was NO WAY that he would have not made at least some points back on Rossi. That was some serious brain fade suffered by Jorge. Nearing the end of the season? You would think that these two Yamaha riders would have it in their heads by now..
The only guy that matters from now on is my team-mate..
Repeat..
The only guy that matters from now on is my team-mate..
Now? With the point deficit the way that it is?
Marquez matters..

Wasn't but two races ago, when Rossi and Jorge were tied on points..
Some of Marquez' comments at the press conference pre-Silverstone, and post Brno..
Marquez mentioned Rossi a couple of times.. As his target was to be in front of Rossi whenever possible. Hearing these words at that time? I was thinking.. There goes #10..

Now? I am thinking that there are two guys wanting to win ever last race till the end..
Jorge NEEDS to..
Marquez WANTS to..
I think that Marc will be Jorge's worst nightmare now..

That little Piranha can sit and watch these guys go at it..
I feel that Marc will win at least one more.. At least..

I feel like doing the math. If Rossi takes third in every race from now on?
How many races can Jorge afford to come second to Marc?
Man.. This season has had my head spinning, and it has been a long while since I have felt this much of a constant anticipation for the next race.

It is far from over.. And I am pulling for Rossi.
Didn't it rain last year in Aragon?

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Re: Very strange....

Post by motor »

There's something about this pic...

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Japhrodisiac »

Marc IS Jorge's worst nightmare. To win every remaining race Jorge needs to beat them both, and that's not an easy thing to do, especially when Marc is relaxed, no pressure on him to do anything. Rossi will cruise along and take max advantage where he can, and I wouldn't put another win past him.

For the remaining 5, assuming no one takes someone out, Jorge to win 2, Marc to win 2, Rossi to win 1, and Rossi takes the title by a few points

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Re: Very strange....

Post by speeddog »

freighttrain wrote: ~~~SNIP~~~
I feel like doing the math. If Rossi takes third in every race from now on?
How many races can Jorge afford to come second to Marc?
~~~SNIP~~~
If Rossi gets five 3rds, he'll have 327 points.
Lorenzo has 224 now, so he needs to get 103 points, which would be a tie, and he'd win the WC by virtue of more race wins.
One win, and four 2nd places, and Lorenzo hauls 105 points, and gets the WC.
Two wins, two 2nds, and a 3rd, and Lorenzo hauls 106 points, and gets the WC.

Not impossible, but that's a pretty steep hill for Lorenzo.
I feel like the chance of Rossi getting five 3rds (or better) is greater than Lorenzo getting a win and four 2nds.
Other than this last race, Rossi's podiumed for ~ a year.

Lorenzo's only finished 2nd or better in 6 out of 13 races this year.
Buuuuut ..... that was 5 wins and one 2nd.
Lorenzo's averaged 17.23 points per race so far, and that's not enough to get the job done with Rossi pulling 3rds.
But only needing 20.6 points per race to get the WC.

It's still all on the table with 5 races to go.
Results of Aragon will narrow the outcome a good bit.
A Lorenzo win, and Rossi 4th, 23 point gap becomes 11... and it's all to play for.
Rossi win, and Lorenzo 4th, 23 becomes 35 and it's all over but the crying.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by motor »

Rossi's obviously going to be there at PI and Sepang, and I wouldn't rule him out at Motegi and Aragon either

Not sure if Yamaha's test at Aragon works in Lorenzo's favour actually.
Test or not, Jorge would be fast right away at most places while Rossi would go through his struggle routine before possibly arriving at some last minute improvements.
Now with the test, Rossi is (theoretically) better set and there's probably a lesser chance of getting a Honda or two between Lorenzo and Rossi.
Interestingly, Rossi was well on his way to setting the fastest lap of the race while he crashed last year...

Rossi had braking issues at Motegi earlier and that could be a thing of the past now that Yamaha brakes and enters corners much better.

Overall I'm not very convinced about Lorenzo's vehement and continuous assertion that he's faster in the dry...at places like Indy and Silverstone, yes without a shadow of doubt. But not so sure otherwise
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Japhrodisiac »

If Jorge wins 2 out of the 5, and Rossi wins none of them, he can still take the title based on Marc's spoiler wins and seconds and Jorge's seconds and thirds, this is just one example but they all favour Rossi of course

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Re: Very strange....

Post by freighttrain »

I am looking at the table, and thinking..
That might pretty spot on. One point?
Valencia has potential to be a very interesting scenario.
Finish in front of your team-mate and take a title..
Thanks for you efforts Japhro..

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Re: Very strange....

Post by sege »

I wouldn't rule Pedrosa out at all. He can be there and take points and win races, when he's in the right mood he is pretty damn fast. Pressure is on Rossi now, he has everything to lose. If Lorenzo has back to back wins with Rossi on second to forth the gap is down again quite a lot and pressure builds on Rossi.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by Grahluk »

If it comes to Valencia & Rossi has to finish in front of Jorge I think the title goes to Jorge. If he only has to finish right behind I think it's doable.

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Re: Very strange....

Post by smAshmoto »

sege wrote:I wouldn't rule Pedrosa out at all. He can be there and take points and win races, when he's in the right mood he is pretty damn fast. Pressure is on Rossi now, he has everything to lose. If Lorenzo has back to back wins with Rossi on second to forth the gap is down again quite a lot and pressure builds on Rossi.

Also on his day you have Iannone. He looked damn fast all weekend until his crash in the wet at Aragon last year.


To be honest, Valentino's 2 biggest bogey tracks will be Aragon and Valencia. They're the tracks where if anywhere, he'll lose the most points.

Motegi? Eh, could go either way really.

PI & Sepang? They're his playgrounds. It will be Jorge playing catch up at those two tracks more than any other.

Thats why Vale needs to really push at those two tracks. If he can push out back to back wins in the third and second last races of the season, He will make at least ten points on Jorge and swing the momentum in his favour coming into the final round.

As a Rossi fan, this season has been hell. I haven't been this excited for a title in as long as I can recall, but I'm also finding every race agonising to watch. If things go the way most of us would like to see (lets be honest, who doesn't want to see #10 happen) i feel like ill enjoy this season a whole lot more once I can watch it back on the season review!
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Zaphod »

I wasn't intending it to get down to the maths, as there is no way to predict what is going to happen. I agree with all of the above sentiments, but the point I am making is this psychological game between Rossi and Lorenzo, drawing from the insight we gained into how Lorenzo ticks.

When he feels happy, can't beat him.


As I said, I do not think Rossi wins races or titles because he's the master mind game player. There is an element of truth to that statement, but only in-so-far as he's been around long enough, and through enough, to know how (and more importantly) when to work a weakness or lack of confidence/pressure. It does not guarantee a title. It's one element, and it only works on the right people.

Take Laguna 2011 ( was it ?) when Stoner binned the duc in the gravel, went on to foam at the mouth about how Rossi was during the race....and seemed to throw away sure things later in the season by trying harder than he had to. Lots of opinions were ventured on that subject, and how it played out is ancient history.

The reason I raise it now, it because overlooked or forgotten by most people was the post qual interviews on the Sat. Rossi was asked how he could possibly combat the blinding speed shown by Stoner so far that race weekend.

I think the reply was, "For sure.... I cannot give him two corners in a row. If I am in front and he passes me, I have to pass him back straight away next corner. I will have to attack all the time"

Then the race....where he did exactly what he said he would do. The debateable nuances that occurred during the race are not the point in this discussion....... it's what happened to Stoner during that race, and the races after.

Why was he so upset about what happened ? He was told the tactics the day before the race ? Like Lorenzo in some (many) ways, Stoner was untouchable when happy and confident. If you could upset him, he'd do the work for you.......

I'll give it to Marquez....... maybe he is the next Rossi. He was pissed off after Argentina......even more so since Assen. I feared for the first part of his race at Silverstone he was lining Rossi up for some pay-back.....after a while though, I thought "He's following him....applying pressure , yes.... but he's following and learning"

He put the anger behind him, almost straight away, and used the opportunity to find out a few things from someone who was better in those sorts of conditions.


I think Rossi is doing to Jorge what he did to Stoner at Laguna....... and , given the information/opinion of the insight into how Lorenzo ticks, it may pay massive dividends. It may not. It may fire Lorenzo on to be even more focussed and blitz everything, or nearly everything, from here on in.

It is a shrewd tactic, worthy of at least a try though (from Rossi), and to date, it appears to be having an effect.


I thought nothing of it....until the wings.


"Why has he got stuff on his bike that I don't ???"........
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Re: Very strange....

Post by Kropotkin »

Zaphod wrote: I thought nothing of it....until the wings.


"Why has he got stuff on his bike that I don't ???"........
I am buying shares in aluminium smelters as we speak, as I can see there is an insatiable demand for tinfoil here...

Lorenzo had the choice to run wings. He decided not to run them. They were not on either of his bikes. Rossi had the choice to run wings. He decided to run them on both his bikes (I believe, but should really check).

Crucial point here: Lorenzo ALWAYS had access to anything Rossi has access to. Both made conscious decisions.

Lorenzo crashed because he saw Redding come flying by, and thought he wasn't going fast enough in the conditions. He was probably also slightly confused as to where everybody was, as he went in before Rossi and so had no way of gauging his progress against the Italian. Off the top of my head, I think Rossi had just pitted when Lorenzo crashed (he did, I just checked). So Lorenzo was hustling because he did not know where Rossi was and crashed.

It is also worth noting that the quotes you see in press releases are given in their native tongue, usually, and then translated by a press officer, whose mother tongue may or may not be English.
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