Mugello this weekend.

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JanBros
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by JanBros »

I'm convinced Rossi is going to take victory. It may be a hard battle or it may not be, but he'll make sure the others know it to that victory belongs to him and nobody else.

just like what Sykes did in the first race at Donnington with Rea.
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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

If he has the opportunity.

He is too wise and canny to throw it into the weeds if Lorenzo gets 2-3 seconds on him and he doesn't have enough pace to catch him.

I'm really wondering what Ducati will be able to do here. Using the track for testing, you have to think that they have a good change of making a run of this. The track traditionally suited the longer wheel base of the Ducati, although guess that has changed this year. In any case, there is going to be pressure on Dovi and Iannone, that's for sure.

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Zaphod
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Zaphod »

Unless Lorenzo has a solid 3 to 5 tenths on them after Qualifying, I reckon it will be one of the others.

If they (Rossi, Marquez, Dovi, Iannone) think they're within sniffing distance of the win, they'll be hard at it. As mentioned in another post, I'm of the opinion that Lorenzo has become more of a "Lawson" type of rider. By this I mean to imply that he will race hard against someone if they're riding sensibly and at a similar pace to that of Jorge.

If it's three or more people riding out of their tree, as I am expecting this weekend, Jorge seems more likely to sit back and leave the others to that stuff.......take the points, not the risk.


Three poor races to start off the season and he's still a clear second in the championship.....and that's with the championship leader finishing no lower than third.

Who thinks he's going to mix it up in a knife fight for a victory ?

That's not how he wins championships, and for a long time now, very rarely how he wins races.
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Tourn46
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Tourn46 »

if Jorge doesn't escape, he will be happy to see if the Italians spoil their own party.

Marc will want to spoil their party at any cost.

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Zaphod
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Zaphod »

Sitting here wasting time, waiting for someone to post a time.

:evil:


This worse than being a kid waiting for Christmas to happen........
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kenup283
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by kenup283 »

Zaphod wrote:Anyone betting against Rossi ? :?:


:lol: :lol: ;) 8-)

Should be a mental race. Lots for every rider to win, lose or consolidate out of this one.

Good circuit as well.

I wouldn't bet against any of the top three, if any one of them nail their setup I think they'll take off without much fight.

AJracing
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by AJracing »

I hope the top guys all say they are going for a "win" and not a podium at the press-conf. I want to see some sparks fly.
Haven't been this excited since the lorenzo/pedrosa championship where pedrosa binned it early in PI - 2012.

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Fingernails
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Fingernails »

Marquez has been quite bullish about this race. I'm wondering if he will be in win it or bin it mode if he's at the front. IMHO it's possible that we might see Marquez take out one of the other title contenders Jorge or Valentino, leaving the one who stays vertical to take a very significant points haul.

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jihem
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by jihem »

My money is on the red team, they're that close to victory and I believe everything will come down here to a win.

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Tourn46
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Tourn46 »

jihem wrote:My money is on the red team, they're that close to victory and I believe everything will come down here to a win.
Have they been that close since Qatar?

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jihem
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by jihem »

4 podiums in 5 races for a new bike...OK, it hasn't been all rose but only Jerez was seriously off the map.

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Tourn46
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Tourn46 »

jihem wrote:4 podiums in 5 races for a new bike...OK, it hasn't been all rose but only Jerez was seriously off the map.
Sorry, that comment was maybe a little more abrupt than intended. What I mean is aside from Qatar, they have been seconds off the winner rather than tenths.

Yes, their progress is astounding and the bike certainly looks like it has the potential to be a race winner, but so far they have just been that 1% behind the Yamaha's, they still need to make another step imo.

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Grahluk
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Mugello this weekend.

Post by Grahluk »

Fingernails wrote:Marquez has been quite bullish about this race. I'm wondering if he will be in win it or bin it mode if he's at the front. IMHO it's possible that we might see Marquez take out one of the other title contenders Jorge or Valentino, leaving the one who stays vertical to take a very significant points haul.
Just saw the press conference. Marc was pretty subdued & admitted engine was too aggressive. Going to do his best but not the usual statement about fighting for the victory. Of course that doesn't invalidate ANY of your points. Maybe a wounded animal but still a dangerous animal.

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Zaphod wrote:Unless Lorenzo has a solid 3 to 5 tenths on them after Qualifying, I reckon it will be one of the others.

If they (Rossi, Marquez, Dovi, Iannone) think they're within sniffing distance of the win, they'll be hard at it. As mentioned in another post, I'm of the opinion that Lorenzo has become more of a "Lawson" type of rider. By this I mean to imply that he will race hard against someone if they're riding sensibly and at a similar pace to that of Jorge.

If it's three or more people riding out of their tree, as I am expecting this weekend, Jorge seems more likely to sit back and leave the others to that stuff.......take the points, not the risk.


Three poor races to start off the season and he's still a clear second in the championship.....and that's with the championship leader finishing no lower than third.

Who thinks he's going to mix it up in a knife fight for a victory ?
That's not how he wins championships, and for a long time now, very rarely how he wins races.
I think you've had a bit of a misconception there Zaphod, or maybe confusing Lorenzo with Pedrosa ;)

I reckon I can think of at least half a dozen races in the past year or so where Jorge has been involved in last-lap scraps. Several times when MM was on his victory streak there were last lap passes, end of 2013 of course when he was trying to back Marquez into the rest of the field etc. etc. I don't think Lorenzo has any trepidation about scrapping, going off his form really through his career up until this point, I just don't think in the first few races he was in the position to be able to fight.

danwilliams
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by danwilliams »

We will have 3- GP15s racing at Mugello with Pirro(whom i rate as a racer) on the third new Duc. Could be interesting.


The press conference, rather serious at times apart from Petrucci & Iannone.The last 10 mins was a little entertaining. Iannone's injury-shoulder/elbow is still a problem for him.
Last edited by danwilliams on Fri May 29, 2015 2:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

smAshmoto
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by smAshmoto »

1. Put a picture each of Jorge, Valentino, Iannone and Marc up on a wall.

2. Put on a blindfold.

3. Throw a dart at the wall the pictures are on.

4. Whoever it lands on is your winner.

It really is that random at the moment!

I'd be grimacing a little this weekend as a fan of Suzuki. That power disadvantage and that looooooong straight is going to equal some painful images.
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danwilliams
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by danwilliams »

Yep, unfortunately the Suzuki will be found wanting this weekend.

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Zaphod
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Zaphod »

MiniNinjaMk5 wrote:
I think you've had a bit of a misconception there Zaphod, or maybe confusing Lorenzo with Pedrosa ;)

I reckon I can think of at least half a dozen races in the past year or so where Jorge has been involved in last-lap scraps. Several times when MM was on his victory streak there were last lap passes, end of 2013 of course when he was trying to back Marquez into the rest of the field etc. etc. I don't think Lorenzo has any trepidation about scrapping, going off his form really through his career up until this point, I just don't think in the first few races he was in the position to be able to fight.

Nah, just me coming across badly ....again.

I know he will scrap, and scrap hard.

If he feels he has pace/condition to do so.

If he doesn't, he'll take the points.

Like Lawson, very much like Lawson, he's astute. He looks at the big pictre always. Everybody freaking out 'cause Lorenzo had an awful first three races......not him though.

Tick-tock.



Hypothetical, MM on flogged tyres and below par bike gets caught hand over fist by Rossi with three laps to go.

What did he do ?


Now.......put Lorenzo in that same position, what would he do ?

That point was all I was trying to get across.

:)
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jihem
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by jihem »

Tourn46 wrote: Yes, their progress is astounding and the bike certainly looks like it has the potential to be a race winner, but so far they have just been that 1% behind the Yamaha's, they still need to make another step imo.
Agreed, there's still something missing but I think the pre-test they had here, which may have seen them apparently at record pace, might just bridge that. For this week-end.

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Tourn46
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Tourn46 »

It's interesting seeing the different strategies over the weekend... for example, the end of FP2 when everyone was going crazy just to get up the time sheet, Rossi was out on the Hard/Hard combination working away on his own agenda as usual.
I'm sure throughout the grid there will be many more stories like this - obviously Rossi is one that was highlighted as he's leading the championship but in 9th place in FP2.

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CLX
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by CLX »

So it seems the harder tyre isn't going to work for Rossi. What have the others said about it?

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MiniNinjaMk5
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by MiniNinjaMk5 »

Looking at the lap runs, which should give indications of pace

Dovi: 7 laps between 1.48.2 and 1.48.5. His final run produced the fast lap, 3 mid/high 1.47s (was this done on the softer tyre?)
Marquez: 4 laps between 1.48.1 and 1.48.4, otherwise all over the place
Lorenzo: 10 laps between 1.47.9 and 1.48.2. 14+ if you increase this range to 1.48.4
Iannone: 6 laps between 1.48.4 and 1.48.7 but spread across 4 very short runs.
Smith: First run was all 1.49+, second run 1.48.6 to 1.48.9 (6 laps).
Rossi: 7 laps between 1.48.4 and 1.48.9, otherwise up and down.

So going on this Lorenzo has the race pace and consistency at the moment closely followed by Dovi. Rossi definitely has some work to do as if the race pace follows this pattern he will be off the podium.
With Marquez it's impossible to say. I remember trying to do this analysis back in 2008-09 with Stoner on the Ducati and it's a similar situation, with such short runs you can't get any pattern.

Dark horse: Crutchlow, did 3 laps on pace with Marquez (between 1.48.1 and 1.48.3) but otherwise short runs and again lap times like a yo-yo.

Also checked Pedrosa: slower and longer first run (similar to Bradley), then 5 laps between 1.48.4 and 1.48.6. He didn't do the one fast lap of the others, but his race pace looks top 5-6 at the moment and he was the only rider on a Honda that seemed to be able to do 4-5 successive laps within a tenth of each other.

Expect this to all be thrown on its head tomorrow! :)

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Zaphod
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Zaphod »

Pretty well summed up by this bloke........

From MotoGP.com. No link provided, as I'm assuming most already read this stuff.

Valentino Rossi: “We started the afternoon practice well. I didn‘t feel so bad with the bike and I had quite a good pace. I was quite happy, but I had some problems under braking. We tried to modify the setting so I could brake harder, but we didn‘t find a good solution and at the end I came back out on my normal bike and decided to try the harder tyre on the front and rear. The front wasn‘t so bad, but the rear was a bit too hard and I didn‘t have enough grip on the left side for me to push to the maximum. However, it‘s good for us to try these things to gain data and tomorrow we try to modify and to improve the bike, especially under braking in the last section. It looks like Jorge had the best pace, but Dovi is also fast and so is Marquez. It‘s only Friday, so it‘s too early to say who will be the hardest to beat, but they seem to be in good shape.”


Jorge is as fast, staight out of the box, as the Ducati's who have been around the circuit a bit in the quite recent past. Tick-Tock......

I would be inclined to think, at this very early stage that Marquez's fast laps have much more to do with him than what the bike is actualy capable of.

Rossi is playing his own tune, finding what he wants and not worrying too much about lap times at this stage, just as long as they're ball park.

Ducati's..... a real dark horse over race distance.

Dani, about where you'd think......which in itself is a testimony to the mans skill and determination.

If anything, I want Jorge to have some trouble with set up....... not so he loses, just enough that he can't check out and leave the rest behind on Sunday.
Last edited by Zaphod on Sat May 30, 2015 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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danwilliams
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by danwilliams »

AI29 rear slide at turn12 in fp1 :shock: how did he stay on that bike :?: amazing stuff.

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Zaphod
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Re: Mugello this weekend.

Post by Zaphod »

Big fan of the bloke. :)

Under-rated in my book.
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