Marc Marquez

Running The Numbers: Analyzing The Test Pace Of Marquez, Viñales, Rossi, And Lorenzo

So much happened at the MotoGP test at Valencia that it is hard to take it all in and cover it in one go. Time offers a little bit of hindsight and perspective, and a chance to digest everything that came at you so fast over the two days at Valencia. So here are a few notes and thoughts looking back.

Real pace

It is attractive to judge performance in testing just by casting a cursory glance at the timesheets and drawing conclusions from that. But the headline times tell very little of the story. A more complete analysis means examining every lap, and seeing the kind of consistency and speed each rider can maintain. It is all very well posting a 1'30.0, but if every other lap is a 1'32, then the actual pace is not particularly good.

So I extracted the laps of four of the main title contenders for 2017 from the analysis PDF files on the MotoGP.com website, placed them into a spreadsheet and sorted them from fastest to slowest. Discarding the properly slow laps (slower than around 1'34.5) allowed some clear patterns to emerge from the two days, especially once charted visually. I selected Valentino Rossi and Marc Márquez as the two most significant riders to stay with their teams, and Jorge Lorenzo and Maverick Viñales as the two most important riders to be switching factories.

Valencia MotoGP Test - Post-Test Press Releases

Press releases from the teams after the first test of the 2017 MotoGP season at Valencia:


Movistar Yamaha MotoGP Conclude Valencia Test On Top

Maverick Viñales maintained his key protagonist status during the second day of testing at the Circuito de la Comunitat Valenciana Ricardo Tormo. The Spaniard was the only rider to drop under the 1'30s mark to top the standings for the second day in succession. Valentino Rossi also made strides today under the Valencian sun and spent the afternoon testing the new 2017 chassis and engine and set the seventh fastest time.

Valencia MotoGP Test - What Is Every Factory Doing At Valencia?

It has been the most exciting first day of testing for many years. It was reminiscent of the year Valentino Rossi switched to Ducati, and Casey Stoner went to Honda. But Tuesday was 2011 on steroids: Jorge Lorenzo to Ducati, Maverick Viñales to Yamaha, Andrea Iannone to Suzuki, KTM entering the class, and four fascinating rookies. Add in the GP14.2 being replaced by a bevy of GP15s and GP16s, significantly more competitive motorcycles, and you have a test so fascinating and intriguing that it is hard to know where to start.

So let's start with the timesheets. Maverick Viñales ends the day as fastest, on his first day on the Yamaha, pushing for a quick lap towards the end of the day. Valentino Rossi was second fastest, his quickest lap set on the 2016 bike he raced on Sunday early in the day. Jorge Lorenzo set the third quickest time on the Ducati, stepping up late in the day to come very close to topping the timesheets.

Valencia MotoGP Test - Initial Trackside Notes On Lorenzo, Iannone, Viñales

There is a genuine sense of excitement at Valencia. Eight factory riders have either swapped teams or, in the case of KTM, joined a brand new entry. There are four rookies in MotoGP. And even the satellite teams have seen a shake up.

Intrigued to see the riders on their new steeds, I spent the first couple of hours of Tuesday at trackside, trying to gauge the body language of the riders and watch how comfortable they look. The first hours is when the process of adaptation takes place, so there is still a lot to learn for everyone swapping bikes. But it can provide an interesting insight into how the riders are getting on.

Jorge Lorenzo was the second rider out on track, behind Suzuki test rider Takuya Tsuda. On a cold track – ambient temperature of 7°C and overcast – Lorenzo looked cautious on the Ducati, clearly not pushing. Those laps were obviously being used for him to get a feeling for the bike, and to adjust his position on the Desmosedici.

2016 Valencia MotoGP Preview: Farewell To Teams And Sponsors, Hello To New Opportunities

And so the 2016 MotoGP season is nearly at an end. Though the major honors have been awarded, there are still the final few t's to cross and i's to dot. We have our three champions, Johann Zarco the last to wrap up the title in Moto2 at Sepang. Honda are hot favorites to win the constructors' championship, while Movistar Yamaha hold a narrow lead in the team championship. Cal Crutchlow has a commanding 17-point lead in the battle for top independent rider. Second place in both Moto2 and Moto3 is still up for grabs.

In reality, these don't matter all that much. Once the championship is settled, the riders on the grid race for pride. And given that we are talking about the best professional motorcycle racers in the world, there is an awful lot of pride at stake. So the battle at Valencia will be just as fierce as anything that has come before. If anything, it will be even more fierce, given that nobody has very much to lose.

They will need an extra dash of abandon at Valencia. The circuit is pushed up against a hillside, and encircled by grandstands, cramming a serpentine four kilometer track into a very tight space. Reaching the required Grand Prix length requires a lot of corners, and that drops the average speed. Valencia is the slowest circuit on the calendar, and with so many tight corners, passing spots are few and far between. Turn 1 is an obvious candidate, a hard-braking left turn at the end of a long straight. Turn 6, another sharp left hander after a short straight. And a final dive up the inside into Turn 14, after the long and glorious left at Turn 13.

Guest Blog: Mat Oxley - Marquez is still under pressure

He may be 2016 MotoGP world champion but Marc Marquez still has two important duties to perform at Valencia

You would think that Marc Marquez will be under no pressure this weekend. The 23-year-old wrapped up his third MotoGP title in Japan last month, so presumably this Sunday’s season-ending Valencia Grand Prix will be a heroic homecoming, a chance to glad-hand his Spanish fans and enjoy himself, free of any real concerns.

Not quite. Marquez will be under some serious pressure from Honda, because while he may have won his title, he hasn’t yet won Honda its prize. Honda currently leads Yamaha by 21 points in the constructors' world championship, so it’s not over yet.

After Valencia: Who Is Testing What At The First MotoGP Test Of 2017?

On Tuesday, November 15th, the 2017 season starts in earnest. The biannual session of bike swapping commences two days after the final MotoGP round at Valencia, as riders, crew chiefs, mechanics, press officers and many others swap garages to join their 2017 teams. It is often something of a disappointment, with only a few riders moving from team to team, but the coming season sees some big names switching bikes, as well as an important new arrival in the shape of KTM. So to help you keep track, here is who will be testing what at Valencia on Tuesday.

Ducati

All eyes will of course be on the factory Ducati garage, where Jorge Lorenzo is due to get his first outing on the Desmosedici. The Bologna factory has been working flat out on getting their 2017 bike ready, Michele Pirro giving the GP17 its first test after Aragon. The test was so important that Pirro was unable to fly to Motegi to replace the still recovering Andrea Iannone.

How will Lorenzo fare? We will have some idea on Tuesday. That is, if it doesn't rain, which the (notoriously inaccurate) long-range forecasts show it might. More important, perhaps, than his first test on the bike may be the relationship he establishes with new crew chief Cristian Gabarrini. The Italian worked previously with Casey Stoner, and so is used to working with complex characters. Tuesday and Wednesday is the day Lorenzo and Gabarrini get their first chance to get a feel for one another.

Guest Blog: Mat Oxley - Nine MotoGP winners – will it ever happen again?

Maybe not, because this season’s thrillingly unpredictable racing has much to do with the moment of transformation in MotoGP’s technical environment

Nine different winners in one season – something that’s never happened before in a championship that started shortly after the end of the Second World War. Amazing stuff.

But do the historic successes of Cal Crutchlow, Andrea Dovizioso, Andrea Iannone, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Jack Miller, Dani Pedrosa, Valentino Rossi and Maverick Viñales prove that we are now in a new era of enjoyably chaotic MotoGP racing that will continue for the foreseeable future?

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