2015 Misano Saturday Round Up: The Prospect Of A Furious Fight, Mind Games Which Weren't, And Three Stop Strategies

Remember Brno? A scintillating qualifying left Jorge Lorenzo on pole, with Marc Márquez beside him and Valentino Rossi filling out the front row. Race pace for the three was very similar, and the fans were left with the mouthwatering prospect of a thrilling race on Sunday. They were disappointed. Jorge Lorenzo surged to the lead off the line, and shaking off Marc Márquez, disappeared into the distance, winning comfortably. The battle royal promised by free practice never materialized, and we were all left with a hollow feeling of disappointment, no matter how brilliant Lorenzo's victory was.

Hence my reluctance to play up the prospect of a good race at Misano. The ingredients are the same. The same three riders on the front row, in the same order. The same comparative strength in race pace, Lorenzo and Márquez very close – in this case, running several low 1'33s in FP4 – while Valentino Rossi a couple of tenths behind. The sort of gap he and his crew usually manage to find on Sunday morning, leading to the suspicion that what they find is Rossi's insatiable desire to race to win, a setting that has been known to be good for up to three quarters of a second a lap in the distant past. This has all the makings of a classic race, but that is no guarantee of that actually happening.

Valentino Rossi expressed the fears of everyone, except perhaps Jorge Lorenzo. "Usually at the beginning of the race Jorge is always very strong," he told the press conference. "Especially when he has this pace like in this weekend. For sure he will start and he will push from the first corner very strong. Usually also Marc is able to stay with him. So it’s crucial try to stay with them in the first laps. And after you can see what’s happen, if you are close. If you are already far it’s already finished." Dani Pedrosa, starting from fourth on the grid, saw something similar. "I think one of the keys is the beginning," he told us. "When [Lorenzo] puts his rhythm it is hard to do his style on the track, how he rides the bike is quite different. So when he has more free room to race, he is faster."

Rossi, rather aptly, has used his customary special helmet design to put his current situation into pictures, painted by Aldo Drudi. A small yellow fish is being chased by a giant blue shark, but Rossi was at pains to deny the shark represented just Lorenzo. Lorenzo countered by saying he looked nothing like a shark, not having the necessary sharp and pointy teeth. "But I prefer to be the shark than the fish," he quipped.

To stretch the metaphor, perhaps Lorenzo is like a shark, unstoppable, insatiable, consuming everything in its way. In this version, Rossi has to use his wits to escape its clutches, trick it into swimming one way while he dodges right. Marc Márquez could be Rossi's biggest ally and biggest hope. If the Repsol Honda man can sit on Lorenzo's tail, perhaps even get ahead of him, then Rossi can stick with them, and try to pounce. If Lorenzo checks out, neither Rossi nor Márquez will be able to withstand the onslaught; their best chance of success is to hold Lorenzo up and disrupt his lines.

Was there a shadow of that in Qualifying? On Rossi's final lap, he looked up at the screens to see if there was still enough time to try to push for a final lap. As it happened, what he saw was Jorge Lorenzo on a charge, hoping to improve his best time from his second run. A rather unfortunate set of coincidences saw Rossi baulk Lorenzo, causing him to back off and lose his lap. An infuriated Lorenzo gave Rossi an icy stare as they went for their practice starts, but Rossi apologized immediately in Parc Ferme, and the incident was forgiven. Not by Race Direction, who issued Rossi with a penalty point, but his teammate was taking it much better in the press conference than he had directly after qualifying.

Did Rossi do it on purpose? That seems hardly likely. As much as the fans and the media like to stoke the fires of his reputation for psychological warfare, that exists far more in the minds of the fans than in the minds of Rossi and his rivals. It was an unfortunate sequence of events, but it could have happened to anybody. That it happens to Rossi and Lorenzo is coincidence. When there are just twelve riders on the track at the same time, such a coincidence is statistically much more likely.

As it happened, Lorenzo wasn't on course to improve his lap time anyway. After making a mistake on his second run, gassing up too early out of the final corner and having to back off, the Movistar Yamaha rider came in for one last tire. He and his team had elected to do three runs, but as Lorenzo wasn't comfortable with the feeling of the second bike, that meant swapping rear tires and going out on the same front. The front tire held up for the first two fast runs, but was starting to give trouble on the final one. Lorenzo's sector times were already a fraction off before he reached Rossi, improvement of his own best time no longer a possibility.

Who else to watch out for? Marc Márquez once again pointed to Dani Pedrosa as having the pace to match the front runners. Cal Crutchlow concurred, suggesting Pedrosa had better pace than Márquez even. Unlike Brno, Pedrosa has not just slammed his foot into the ground in a bizarre highside, is fit and will start from fourth, directly behind Jorge Lorenzo. Once upon a time, the Honda was the fastest starting bike on the grid, but Honda's thirst for horsepower completely ruined that. Now the RC213V just wants to wheelie off the line, making it a very hard bike to handle at the start.

That tendency to wheelie is also why the Hondas are losing so much in the third sector. All of the Hondas are fast in the first, second and fourth sectors, but are losing two tenths or more in the third sector. The reason is simple: out of the slow right-hand hairpin of Turn 10 (the riders call it Turn 8, disregarding the kink in the straight and putting the two right handers together for the hairpin) the Honda just wants to lift the front, finding no traction and losing grip. They are losing ground to the Yamahas out of the slow corners, and to the Ducatis once they hit third, fourth, fifth and sixth. It is hard to overstate just how very wrong Honda got the 2015 RC213V engine.

Other riders of note? Bradley Smith starts strongly from sixth, with Michele Pirro the only Ducati ahead of him. Smith has his eyes on fifth spot, and gaining points on Andrea Dovizioso in the championship. He would also like not to lose too many points to Dani Pedrosa, but Pedrosa's pace is not one Smith believes he can follow.

As first Ducati, Michele Pirro did a fantastic job. Yes, the Italian has spent most of the summer lapping Misano in his role as official Ducati test rider, but his pace shows what an excellent investment he has been as a test rider. Pirro is genuinely fast in his own right, and upholding the honor for Ducati at Misano is an important coup for him.

Pol Espargaro has even better pace than his teammate, but unfortunately for Espargaro, he threw his chance of a good qualifying position away by crashing out of Q2. Unable to get out again, his first bike too damaged, his second bike still suffering a technical problem, Espargaro is too far down the order, and will be rolling the dice into the first corner.

His brother Aleix over at Suzuki starts ahead of him, and was reasonably pleased with his day. The Suzuki rider's brilliant crew chief Tom O'Kane found a clever solution to the lack of acceleration, making the bike longer to allow them to use more power out of the corner, without compromising its ability to turn. Espargaro the Elder is looking at the soft rear tire for the race on Sunday, believing it will both last and give him an advantage throughout the race.

The choice for the Hondas and Yamahas is pretty clear. Unless the temperatures go through the roof on Sunday, they will all run the medium rear and the hard front. The medium front overheats too quickly in the long series of right handers from the Curvone onwards, while the hard front lacks a little bit of grip but manages the conditions better.

Moto2 promises to be an excellent race as well, though the same caveats apply to the front row. Alex Rins and Tito Rabat have really shown their pace all weekend, but it is Johann Zarco on the pole. History says he will do a Lorenzo, get away from the beginning and cruise home to victory. But history doesn't always repeat itself, especially when riders like Rins and Rabat have the sheer pace to fight it out.

Moto3 could also turn into a snoozer, at least that is the hope of Danny Kent. The Englishman starts from third on the grid, only using a new soft tire at the very end of the session. That was the plan all along, his crew chief Peter Bom asserted, and given Kent's dominance throughout the season, who are we to question him? Enea Bastianini sits on pole, and must be favorite at his home race, but keep an eye out on Brad Binder. The South African has a new chassis from KTM, along with all the other KTM riders. It makes the bike a little easier to ride, and Binder has taken to it like a duck to water. If Kent can run away, then he would be happy for Binder to win it, as long as he finishes ahead of Bastianini. With just five races to go, and a lead of 70 points, Kent is already engaged in the championship end game. Beating Bastianini is the only goal that counts, as sweet as victory might still taste. Given the fact that he will likely have three more races left when he wraps up the Moto3 title, he will have plenty more opportunities to taste victory then.

Will we get a great race? I hope so, but there are no guarantees. The sell out crowd – in my eight years of covering MotoGP, I don't think this has ever happened before – means that a massive yellow army will be cheering Rossi on. Will that make any difference? Frankly, it's hard to see how Valentino Rossi could be any more motivated to beat Jorge Lorenzo. Even if it's not a great spectacle, it will be an intriguing prospect.


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Total votes: 117
Total votes: 60

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Comments

Furious fight? I expect another snoozer a la Jorge Lorenzo! I don't think Marc Marquez will find that something extra for the race. He looked like he need to work twice harder than Jorge Lorenzo for the pole position.

Total votes: 116

Please don't let this be another Lorenzo-drops-the-smoke-bomb-and-disappears kind of race. I just want zero crashes and lots of trading places. Come on boys...

Total votes: 114

I've seen and heard a few comments about Marquez working much harder than Lorenzo to have a similar pace.

It's common knowledge this is each of their respective styles so why is it now an issue?

Total votes: 99

When MM is pushing the bike dances around under him BUT it always seemingly miraculously stays on track. During FP2 & FP3 MM ran off the track on numerous occasions which is very unlike his usual self. Hinting he MAY be having to push harder than usual, or doesn't quite have the bike dialed in.

Total votes: 99

He is always making mistakes in free practice. It was a big part of what was so impressive about him in 2013. Constant mistakes until the race when he got it together. Not much has changed with him since his rookie year in that area.

Total votes: 99

Doesn't quite have the bike dialed in is an understatement. Marc is having to ride around the problems of his bike. This has been consistent all season. Of course it looks like he is working harder. Ragged riding style aside- the Honda struggles to slow down and enter corners (hence the run offs) and it spins up on corner exit. Jorge on the other hand works extremely hard to look as though he is not working hard. He looks smoother than anyone but is exerting a tremendous amount of energy to ride that way.

Total votes: 102

I'm still not wrong about Marquez making mistakes in practice being an indicator of him having to work twice as hard if you look at his last two seasons as a reference. His crashes in races this year have been errors on his part while racing people for the most part.

Maybe Honda lost their way slightly but people seem to forget after Austin and until Rossi's charge in Argentina things were back to normal and he was going to dominate again.

More a case of the Yamaha's doing better. Last year we were all talking about Bradl and Bautista being disappointing on the satellite Honda's so using Crutchlow and Redding as a reference to how bad the Honda has been isn't much use either.

Total votes: 91

half a second on yesterday, Jorge didn't go quicker-telling stat

Total votes: 91

This does bode well for Rossi to improve again before tomorrow and he acknowledged that today. However looking at the race pace Jorge and Marc are lapping consistently in the low 1:33s while Vale is circulating in the mid 1:33s. If he can't find something in the warm up he will have to force himself in front of Jorge to have a chance to stay with him. I really hope this isn't another clinical "masterclass" race for Jorge. Simply no fun to watch.

Total votes: 97

An analysis of FP4 (the best gauge) shows no real consistency of low 1.33's from Jorge and Marc, actually only a few laps in that zone from both. Rossi was mostly mid to higher 1.33's which is similar to The majority of laps from the other two.

The one thing that is always interesting with a new surface is longevity of rubber, particularly with the bridgestones. I would hazard a guess that the race pace will be mostly mid 1.33's due to this, as Rossi, Jorge and Marc have been able to set consecutive laps in the 1.32's prior to FP4, yet not one lap in the 1.32's for FP4 with the fuel computers dialed in for 28laps and the setting optimized to make the hard front last

Total votes: 97

More Bridgestone hate from Sttrain *yawn* FYI The only tire problems at Misano recently were during a Michelin private test with Ducati, when Pirro's rear tyre disintegrated causing 'panic' according to Crutchlow.

Honda, Suzuki and Ducati did full race simulations at Misano with surface temps of sixty degrees centigrade so there won't be any problems today, much to your disdain I'm sure.

Total votes: 90

The track was supposed to be 2 secs a lap quicker not two tenths(ish). It has change massively since those tests. Therefore all questions concerning tyre longevity are totally reasonable.

Total votes: 87

I totally agree. I'm just pointing out Sttrain's 'particularly Bridgestone' part of his argument as his Michelin fanboyism is showing again :-)

And how was the track 'supposed to be 2 seconds a lap quicker'? The press release from the circuit designer themselves said to expect a '0.7% up to 2.5% improvement' in lap times so obviously not even they were sure as that is a huge margin of error. The old qualifying record was 1'32.9, the new record was 1'32.1 which is around 0.8% quicker. So at the lower end of that range, but still within it. If lap times are slower, wear will be less not more so tire durability should be even better.

Total votes: 86

Have you read the Friday round up.? The 2 secs comment was based on conclusions from the tests which is what your basing your comments on tyre wear on. The track has gone down in quality since then therefore now, lesser gains. That then invalidates your original tyre wear theory as it does not pertain to this weekend but vastly different conditions. There is no times/wear equation, you can go very fast with little tyre wear or not very fast with huge tyre wear dependant on many factors, set up, load, abrasive nature of surface, even track design etc.etc. You will have more wear going slowly on sand paper than going quickly on glass so to speak.

Total votes: 95

While I found it really difficult to maintain my readership to support this site following David's SHOCKING use of American spelling last week (Tyregate), I feel that today's write-up has pushed me over the edge. David's constant and wilful misrepresentation of aquatic life has simply been unforgivable. Any amateur marine biologist knows that a shark fulfils a vital role in the oceanic ecosystem and is certainly not preoccupied with "consuming everything in its way". Although I am not a site supporter and have not paid any money to David for him to write all the articles that I have been reading for free for the last 8 years, I can certainly say unequivocally this may possibly be one of the main reasons stopping me from doing so. Sort it out!

Total votes: 136

Good one mate :)

Total votes: 108

Good Lord, boy-o, reach into your pocket and grab your wallet already!!!!

Total votes: 109

I raised an eyebrow at that analogy also, sharks do anything but what was described. But lets face it when it all boils down the subject is actually quite monotonous, nobody but the fab 5 have bagged more than 1 flukey race win in how many years??
David always manages to write engaging and entertaining articles about this essentially static but always twisting scenario, so I for one can forgive him for drawing a some what long bow every once in a while. :)

Total votes: 94

Not quite Swift's Modest Proposal, but fair effort.

Total votes: 99

Little-Nicky, you are quite right. As I was typing the section on the shark, I knew I was violating the truth, and that sharks are not so much the hoovers of the sea as they are specialist hunters. I distorted reality for the sake of a satisfying metaphor. Inexcusable, but typical of a journalist...

To make amends, I have donated ten of your English pounds to the Shark Trust, a charity which works to protect sharks around the world.

Total votes: 111

Not quite sure if getting upset about the metaphorical use of a shark being a voracious and indiscrimitate eater ( ehr, they have found license plates in their stomachs...) is a very satirical reader of just someone who is way, way out on the edge.

It would appear that you CHOOSE to get upset over minutiae in life. This is a site to discuss GP; if it does not float your boat, you're welcome to sail away, and continue to let even the most minor of currents turn into a tempest.

Oh, and donate $ to the site; it's how David can travel to the races.

Total votes: 102

Pedro, me thinks you missed "TireGate" earlier in the week. A reader threw a major league hissy fit over Davids spelling of "Tire". Somehow his using an "i" instead of a "y" was a major transgression that just couldn't stand.

Total votes: 97

Did anyone else notice an unusual amount of riders running off track all at the same spot? I think it was turn 1 at the end of the straight. Maybe it isn't that unusual to run off track at the end of a straight but it seemed like it was happening every other lap for some folks.

Total votes: 81

He's old, but he's also Rossi. Only a couple tenths off race pace and they are not in Brno where Rossi did not emulate his practice pace in the race. More ominous was Rossi mentioning it was going to be a long race..... He'll be there lurking as long as he doesn't bin the start. Then we'll see who the fish is.

Marquez is the one I'm really concerned about. He looks more out of control than usual, running off the track many times. I hope he keeps it in check and doesn't cost anyone their race.

For that matter, lets hope everyone survives those first few corners. Looking forward to 3 great, safe races!

Total votes: 93

As has been mentioned depends on the start. Could be another Jorge smash and grab.

Hoping Valentino gets a good start and we have a good three or four way battle for half the race at least!

Total votes: 89

Phillip Island 2013
Assen 2012
Indy 2011

All resurfaced and disastrous for Bridgestone. Do you have a point or an argument to back up your statement?

Total votes: 79

Warmup just finished and Marc leads. Last year Rossi led the warmup session. This year he is down the order in sixth.

Marc was working harder in FP2 than I've seen recently. Big effort this weekend even testing a new swingarm during FP2. He is pushing himself, the will of a champion. Same goes for George. Pushing every session. Rossi and his crew need to come up with something between right now and the race.

Just hope we get a race unlike Brno. Don't care who wins but I want to see a fight from someone. Two riders would be great, three would be better.

Total votes: 99

"... leading to the suspicion that what they find is Rossi's insatiable desire to race to win, a setting that has been known to be good for up to three quarters of a second a lap ..."

ROTFLMAO! If they could only find that setting for him before qualifying, he'd have an easier time of it on Sunday afternoon.

Total votes: 74