If you want to get an idea of what might happen during the race at any particular MotoGP round, the tried and tested method is to pay particular attention to what happens in FP4. Watch the session carefully, and then pore over the analysis timesheet carefully, checking to see who was using which tires, how many laps they had on them, and the average pace they were capable of doing.
Disregard the fast laps set at the end of each the three free practice sessions which select who goes through directly to Q2, and take the qualifying results as a guide to be viewed through the lens of a rider's projected ability to convert a strong grid position into solid race pace. It's no good qualifying on the front row if you get swallowed up before you hit the first corner – just ask Maverick Viñales. And qualifying down on the fourth row is not necessarily an impediment if you can overtake with ease – just ask Joan Mir.