2012 Qatar MotoGP Friday Round Up: Of Tires, Talent, Swansongs and Sandbagging

After the euphoria of the first day at Qatar, it was back to work on Friday, with riders, teams and even journalists turning their focus back to the task at hand. While most of the attention was focused on MotoGP, the premier class seeing fascinating stories start to develop in the two sessions of free practice the class had in the irregular and rather confusing schedule which the night race at Qatar forces on the paddock, a pattern is also starting to emerge in both Moto2 and Moto3.

Thomas Luthi has the intermediate class in a vice-like grip. The Interwetten Paddock rider has topped all three sessions of free practice, and the rider has looked calm and in control throughout. Add to that the fact that Luthi is on a Suter amid a sea of Kalexes, the only other Suter anywhere near him the Repsol wunderkind Marc Marquez, and you get an idea of just how impressive Luthi's performance is. The Swiss rider has a sound and strong rhythm, can respond when he needs to and has the measure of everyone on a Kalex. It would be foolish to bet against him in either QP or the race, and even if he should miss out on pole, a front row start would be good enough for him to wrap up the first race of the season. The Kalex hordes behind him are all pretty close, with little to choose between Claudio Corti, Tito Rabat and Scott Redding, and Pol Espargaro possibly the pick of the bunch. With Marquez still easing his way back into the season after missing so much pre-season testing, and concentrating on being consistent and scoring points, Luthi should be able to build a decent start to the season at Qatar.

The Moto3 class looks like turning into a worthy replacement for the 125s, with the top riders all very close indeed. After dominating on the first day, Maverick Vinales was demoted to 4th in FP3, though there was just 0.135 between him and fastest man Sandro Cortese. Between two of the big names from last year were a couple of surprises, Luis Salom perhaps less surprising given his strong performances last year. But Romano Fenati will be an unfamiliar name to most people, though the European 125cc champion had already raised a few eyebrows at the Jerez tests. Insiders - especially Italians - have marked Fenati out as the real deal, and he is clearly a dark horse for this year.

While the Moto3 bikes' level of competitiveness has impressed most observes, the one thing that has been complained about most is the noise. The flat, turgid drone has had fans saying they miss the sharp two-stroke whine of the 125s, though frankly, that too could be annoyingly wasp-like. In truth, the bikes sound better in the flesh, and sound positively appetizing through the twisty sections, where the riders are on and off the gas. But along Qatar's front straight, they sound like the soundtrack of a World War II movie about the bombing of London.

The noise has also made it a little more difficult for the journalists speaking to riders. On Thursday, the media got to speak to the MotoGP riders outside in the paddock, in the middle of the Moto3 FP2 session. The media debriefs turned almost farcical, as it became apparent that the new, deeper tone produced by the Moto3 bikes put their peak volume right in the middle of the spectrum of the human voice. Unless you stood directly in front of the riders, it was almost impossible to make out what they were saying, especially to ears that have taken a battering from racing motorcycles over the years. Fortunately for us, our voice recorders are far better than our ears, so we had to wait until we got back to your computers to actually hear what the riders said.

In the MotoGP class, it is clear that the battle will be between Casey Stoner and Jorge Lorenzo. Stoner is ever the same: blisteringly fast, deceptively so, given that he spent just about all of his time on a hard tire. "We know we can get an advantage when we put on a soft tire, but there's no point," Stoner said. The Repsol Honda man had put two full race distances on two hard tires, and after turning down the electronics to allow him to get a better feel for the rear tire, was feeling very confident. His biggest problem is persistent chatter, both from the front under braking and at the rear when the throttle is opened. A couple of changes in the third session made a big difference, so while the chatter is still there, it is manageable.

Concentrating on hard tires, a couple of mistakes on his own part - running wide at the end of the straight, after misjudging the braking point due to the changed conditions in the late evening - and a run in with Alvaro Bautista late in the session meant that he had been able to put in a clear run to show his true potential, Stoner explained. That had left him down in 3rd spot, but looking at his race pace, he has little to worry about.

Jorge Lorenzo - positively aglow with confidence - ended the session in top, and his race pace does not look a long way off the pace of Stoner. The hard tire is likely to be the race tire, Lorenzo explained, but he did not yet want to discard the softer option. The bigger engines meant that he would have to use his "mantequilla" - Spanish for butter, and a reference to the smooth side of his riding style - for as long as possible, as the tires start to go off after 10 laps. After that, the rear would start to spin up and slide more, robbing the bike of drive.

Tire management will clearly be crucial for the race, and the new generation Bridgestones look like adding a good deal of interest to the races. Cal Crutchlow, who impressed friend and foe at Qatar, leading FP3 at one point and ending the session in 2nd, behind only Lorenzo, spent a good while explaining to the media the difference the new tires made. The warm up procedure was now excellent, he said, but the problem now was tire wear. "The problem is on corner entry, which is where lap time is gained in MotoGP," Crutchlow said. "Now we're sliding around so much, we look more like Moto2."

"But it's our own fault," the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha man added. "We complained the tires didn't warm up fast enough last year and they changed them. Now we're complaining the tires are sliding around too much. We got what we wanted, and now everyone wants to change!" But Crutchlow emphasized that the tires are definitely better. The endurance of the tires is not too bad, he explained. "They go off straight away, but you seem to keep the same lap time. But corner entry gets worse, and when you shut off, they come round on you, so you brake earlier and corner speed gets lower lap after lap."

"It will be the guy who has the best tire at the end of the race, but that's what everyone wants to see." Crutchlow added, and warned against setting too much stock in the recorded times. "You've got to be careful: Everyone thinks Valentino is sandbagging or has not got the setup; It looks to me like he's working for the end of the race. And he's so consistent, I think there's a few guys working for the end of the race, and a few guys out there working for the start of the race. But you can never tell."

The end of the race was where he was focusing, Crutchlow said. "I want to finish the race as strong as possible, so I'm working on the end of the race. I know we've got enough speed at the beginning of the race, but you've got to be careful, you can blitz a tire in a couple of laps. Over the winter, I think we've been pretty consistent, we've been using old tires all the time, and maybe it suits me a little bit from the Pirellis (in WSBK). Maybe these guys are too used to going in a straight line with the Bridgestones and the electronics. Maybe I'm a bit used to sliding around."

But the same names will still be winning the races, he added, simply because they were the best in the world. "If you put Lorenzo on my bike, he'd go no slower than he's going now," Crutchlow explained. But the need to manage tires better and the possibility of different strategies - running fast early, or running fast late - would make the racing closer, and see more passing. "Maybe not here, but definitely at places like Jerez. Tire management is going to be a big thing. Who can ride hardest the longest will win the race, and they're quite physical bikes as well."

Crutchlow's claims that Rossi may be sandbagging will be music to the ears of his many disillusioned fans around the world. Just to what extent Rossi's lowly times are down to him working on setup section by section, and how much down to the fact that Italian is still struggling to get to grips with the bike remains to be seen. The fact is that Rossi is the third-fastest Ducati, behind Hector Barbera, whose time can be discounted as it was made while drafting a faster rider, and Nicky Hayden, whose time cannot be discounted, as Hayden is managing to ride the bike using the rear tire better than Rossi has been able to.

"For me, this is difficult," Rossi explained, "Because I always ride with the front. Maybe this is why this bike is better for some riders and not for others." At least the bike provides feedback from the front and allows the setup to be changed. The power delivery was still too aggressive, Rossi said - "We have a lion in the cowling" - and needed to be made softer and smoother, to reduce wheelies and be gentler with the tires. But the understeer remained, in part because of the need to use the rear to get the bike to turn, without spinning up the rear and losing drive and still running wide.

But is it really a question of fixing the bike so that Rossi can ride it? Judging by the insane rumors emerging from the less reliable sections of the Italian press, they, at least appear to have lost faith. One Italian newspaper was reporting that Coca Cola had stepped up to put Valentino Rossi on a privately-run factory-spec Yamaha M1 for 2013. Such a move is improbable at just about every level: Coca Cola is such a huge sponsor that they tend to back events rather than individual sportspeople; and Yamaha has neither the resources nor the inclination to provide an M1 for Rossi, having firmly placed their faith in Jorge Lorenzo. As Luca Bologna, the Italian journalist who runs the excellent Infomoto2 and Infomoto3 sites joked, this rumor was about as reliable as reports that Rossi was to pilot the Millenium Falcon.

But after years of winning, the strain of struggling to fight with the second group - somewhere between 4th and 6th - must be starting to tell. After years of domination, failing to master a bike that he thought just needed some minor adjustments must be starting to make Rossi doubt his own abilities. Even if he were to be placed on a factory Honda or factory Yamaha, it might still take Rossi a while to find his confidence and get up to speed.

Even then, he faces the generation of riders who grew up knowing that he was the man to beat, and training and learning to be able to achieve that goal. Jorge Lorenzo is one of the smoothest, most precise riders the world has ever seen, and Casey Stoner may well be the rider with the most raw talent ever to throw his leg over a motorcycle. Both men have a ferocious intelligence and the assistance of brilliant crew chiefs, which helped them to get the better of Rossi. Put all three on the same machinery, and Rossi could well find himself still getting beaten more often than not.

Valentino Rossi is the most significant figure in motorcycle racing for a couple of generations, and possibly the most important rider in the history of the sport. His mixture of unfettered talent, innate charm and natural showmanship made him a global superstar, and attracted hordes of new fans to the sport. Securing nine world championships and a total of 105 victories in three classes speaks of the stature and talent of the Italian. But the problem with being the best in the world is that the generation behind you has placed a target on your back, and are doing whatever it takes to surpass your achievements. Casey Stoner and Jorge Lorenzo have first matched, and have now perhaps surpassed the Italian.

There is an old paddock adage that you should never write Valentino Rossi off too soon. Maybe too soon as passed. But then again, it is only day 2 of the 2012 MotoGP season. There is a long road ahead, but it is neither easy nor certain. It should, however, be fascinating.

Total votes: 204
Total votes: 82

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Comments

David saw you on the teli. Hayden's FP3 interview on gp.com has you right next to him with a motogpmatters shirt! You're famous!

Total votes: 195

1. Is it any bad to take a draft from another rider and get a better lap timing? i understand you may not have the race pace, but still is it bad? to qualify in the front, i dont see a reason why not.

2. Its too early to write off Rossi. And saying Stoner and lorenzo have beaten him might also not be right. Remember, rossi has beaten both of them in separate occasions. Now, agreed he's struggling with the bike, but its the same machine and factory which destroyed the lives of Marco Melandri, Troy Bayliss, Sete Gibernau. All of them were at their prime when they stepped to Ducati. The reason might be with the factory's philosophy itself. Find a rider who can suit best to their bike, and stoner was able to do that. No one else rode the bike like he did, except Capirossi, but that was in the 990 era, not the 800.

Its not about talent, its about the approach to a certain problem. While honda had the funding to go through 6 frames, ducati had whined all along and even managed to fire riders who could not ride their bike. What they really need is a philosophy change. Need to invest more and experiment more, but in a methodical fashion, not like last season either. And whenever a company does that, it takes time to produce results. Like Honda did in 2006 after 2003, and again in 2011 after 2006. i would never write off Rossi.

Total votes: 196

Yes Honda had 5 frames in 2010, but Ducati threw everything they could at the GP11 that was asked for. I think Ducati changed their philosophy quite drastically last year...actually i would say that the change started around November 2010 when Rossi first rode the GP10.

Total votes: 204

i agree they changed, and changes are not easy to get used to... they panicked badly in 2011 season and so started throwing stuff around. I think they started this season in a much more composed mood. So lets see how it progresses.

It was the same issue with Honda in 2004 and in 2007 season. Right from the first test they knew they had a bad bike and could not figure it out for 2 more years. things take time and generally there's no miracle cure in engineering. just my understanding.

Total votes: 202

It was not qualifying for Hector Barbera, it was only practice. Posting a fake fast time in practice by slip streaming someone else is just a complete waste of time. Barbera should be concentrating on race set up and setting real times for the benefit of his team. We all know he will go backwards in the race. I can well understand the other riders being very irritated by some clown making a nuisance of himself in this way in practice.

As for Rossi, reality is that even if he was on a works Honda or Yamaha Stoner and Lorenzo would still beat him most of the time. They are both better riders than Rossi now. Time has moved on for Rossi, as it does for everyone. Rossi's problems at Ducati are not just about the bike, Rossi and his riding has to take some blame, as he himself has acknowledged.

Total votes: 196

If Barbara's 'fake' fast time gets him to the first corner in front of any possible first corner incident it is worth the effort. He then might be able to hitch a ride during the race as well.
The further back you are at the start the more bikes likely to be in front of you early that could hold you up rather than help you.

Total votes: 187

thats what i meant, in the race if he's close enough, he'll tag along with the front rider. And this is a form of over-taking too. thats why i am wondering in what way its bad.

Total votes: 190

"1. Is it any bad to take a draft from another rider and get a better lap timing? i understand you may not have the race pace, but still is it bad? to qualify in the front, i dont see a reason why not."

I think it's rather dangerous. One small mistake by the following rider, and he will run into the rider he is getting a tow from. Also the rider in front risks being run over when he makes a mistake and crashes.
I can understand when riders do this in qualifying, but in FP it's just an unnecessary risk.

Total votes: 188

I agree its not required in FP3, but if you look at the 2009 Barcelona race, Lorenzo was in the draft of Rossi for the 75% of the race. Not that he didnt have the race pace, but he was racing in the draft lot of the times, and close to the end, he made his move. So whats wrong with learning a few tricks and studying your opponents on the track? everyone till now have done that.

Total votes: 227

Dangerous...? Just take a minute to think about what you've said. We are not talking about regular motorcyclists, these are racers. It's their entire job to go fast, and win. Often times that means banging elbows and riding very, very close. Don't worry about them riding close - it's their job, that's what they do.

As far as someone taking a tow... well all's fair in love & racing. Right? If the followed rider doesn't like it he will pull off line.

IMO an 'unnecessary risk' would be if someone being followed in practice decided to brake check someone... but even still, that's not exactly illegal. Like I said, all's fair in love & racing...

Total votes: 189

is not lost on the anoraks of the motoGp fan base. It was, IIRC, shortly after Qatar '07 when Rossi dubbed Stoner and Pedrosa 'the playstation generation' (and it took a long time for the truth, at least for Stoner, to emerge). And that was with the screamer Ducati engine...

Schadenfreude is not pretty - but I wonder how much Rossi is wishing he'd not set himself up so convincingly for a sincere dose coming his way? In 'Fastest', we had Graziano saying 'we could not understand how Stoner could be so fast' (referring to '07) - and it seems that little has changed except the saddle from which the view is now taken.

Total votes: 209

And oh, the irony, reading up some 2007 Rossi comments stating he needs the Ducati engine to beat Stoner ...

Total votes: 186

"Put all three on the same machinery, and Rossi could well find himself still getting beaten more often than not."

That already happened when Lorenzo won the title and he was already getting beaten before that. Stoner won the most races of the 800 era. It is exactly as JB predicted so many years ago, that it would take some very fast youngsters coming up through the ranks who have grown up wanting to beat Rossi.

Total votes: 193

I think the new era started in 2007-2008. Pedrosa came in 2006, stoner in 2006, dovi in 2008, lorenzo in 2008.

Stoner won the title in 2007, so he already proved his competitiveness. But Rossi still managed to win the title back in 2008 and in 2009. who would you blame that for? So did they both really beat him?

Total votes: 200

...from riders describing the new tires make it sound like there are situations arising where there is more power on offer than available grip.

That sounds like a recipe for something approximating racing. And rider skill. And throttle control.

At least, I damn sure hope so...

Total votes: 186

Casey's comments regarding turning his TC down more still so he can feel what the bike is doing more on a shagged tyre sounds like we could be in for some fun times!

Total votes: 181

After this amount of time and challenges either consciously or unconsciously Rossi's confidence must be dented, which must have an effect on his abilities.

Huge congratulations to Cal - his confidence must be in a very good place!

Total votes: 204

Racers like Rossi or Pedrosa appear to need the perfect bike (or at least a bike where they feel very comfortable on) to unfold their talent.

I still believe that once Ducati gets their rig bend straight Rossi will be able to win races by his own abilities. I think when Rossi feels happy with the bike he's able and willing to give it all, but when he feels uncomfortable, he just rides with some safety margin build in.

Total votes: 186

I can't fault you with that assessment Mr Emmett. I'll even agree with the big up part.

As for Barbera he did a couple of low 1:56's and ran 3rd in the session for quite some time. I never saw him pinned right up the date of any 'faster' rider. O.K he may be a bit of a follower in the Criville mould but give the man a break. He was still in control of the motorcycle not umbilically attached to one in front. Perhaps he's doing a Crutchlow and making a performance jump this year?

Total votes: 179

Barbera was in fact towed by Lorenzo from start to end of his fastest lap. If that is something he needs to get better data, or find better lines, he would be stupid not to. Everyone out there will do all they can to perform their best and beat the competitors, and that makes it an interesting game to watch.

Seeing top riders get off the throttle after half a lap, just to disappoint followers, is also amusing to see. Heads are turned to see when next pacemaker is coming up :)

Total votes: 182

Barbera followed Lorenzo for 2 laps in the beginning of FP3 and it was a joy to watch. Lorenzo steady as a rock and Barbera riding like the bike was stolen.

Not sure how many of you who have been racing your selfs but following a faster rider in training or qualification is a very good thing as you can watch and learn.

Maybe it's time for Ducati to put Barbera on a factory bike?

Total votes: 196

He needs to confirm his speed in race....

Don't forget we only speak about free practice of race 1 ....

Total votes: 212

If anything some of the comments Casey makes show that one doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to be a motorcycle racer. An example of some of his silly statements: in Catalunya in 2007, after winning the race by passing the inferior Yamaha on the on the straight repeatedly, when being interviewed he stated he had "no speed advantage..." implying his passes were NOT due to his speed advantage but something else. But really, I admit he is probably fairly intelligent. He is probably too young to realize it is human to be hypocritical. And because I'm not a fan of him (his complaining), due to my use of confirmation bias I have noted all of his hypocritical statements. However, I will agree that he is the best rider out there.

Total votes: 209

So, would you care to comment on why Rossi's 11 khp advantage over Lorenzo in QP (1 kph slower than Stoner's advantage over Rossi in '07 race) hasn't handily placed him on pole this year? Is it just possible that top speed is not necessarily an advantage and it was that to which Stoner referred? Or is hypocrisy in the ear of the beholder?

Total votes: 202

...that doesn't put his foot in it on a semi-regular basis. You've reached back 5 years for an example of Stoner sounding like a bad translation from Russian; since then we've had rivals claiming Stoner wasn't riding the Duc hard enough to be competitive, uttering absolute rubbish about the safety of post-tsunami Japan, cheating on boating exams and nonsense about CRTs. Edwards is probably the only guy in the paddock who is worth listening to so singling out Stoner is rather silly.

Total votes: 192

The only reason you might want a tow during practice is to get you and your sponsor's name at the top. As others have pointed out, there's really no point.

But for qualifying, if you can get a tow and advance 2-3 rows, where else can you pass 6-9 others in one go?

Total votes: 197