Jerez MotoGP test.

Discussion and debate about the MotoGP class

Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Tourn46 on Mon Mar 26, 2012 12:31 am

lebowski wrote:Scary stuff by Stoner. His pace and his fast lap look just that bit quicker. Has to mess with your head when he decides to bang out the fastest time on the final lap of the day - job done.Hopefully Jorge can take it up to him and we have a solid battle at the front.

Good to see Duc and Rossi make progress but it's a long way to the top. I predict a long and painful year.

Oh, and Yamaha, give Cal and Dovi the factory electronic kit!


Spies is the guy I have a bit of a feeling will put in a very good showing this season. Would have been good to see him try for a fast lap today, but you can understand why he said that Yamaha weren't taking any unecessary risks this close to Qatar.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Nachlauf on Mon Mar 26, 2012 12:32 am

Of the top 4 nobody besides Stoner topped their 2011 qualifying times, did they? Wouldn't read too much into it. I'd bet all of them will be faster come Jerez 2012 qualifying. It was only testing.

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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Sloth27 on Mon Mar 26, 2012 12:41 am

This is Stoner's race simulation. It's not as long as the others but it's been mentioned that it was on well used tyres so is still good for comparison to Lorenzo/Pedrosa. The race runs show the real gap in pace between Honda/Yamaha and Ducati.

Stoner
1:55.240
1:39.411
1:39.285
1:39.491
1:39.753
1:39.845
1:39.872
1:40.113
1:39.777
1:39.645
1:39.781

Also, the comparison between CRT and Moto2 test times is interesting because it shows that outright horsepower isn't relevant until you get the basics sorted out. On paper you would think a CRT (even with very limited development) would be able to lap quicker than a Moto2 machine. Still, decent times from Petrucci, Pasini and Pirro - better than I expected.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby drayon on Mon Mar 26, 2012 1:59 am

I acquired race simulation data for Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Rossi and tabled it up.

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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Sloth27 on Mon Mar 26, 2012 2:28 am

Lorenzo's laps are always awesome to look at, every lap is within a tenth or two of the one before it.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Cam D on Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:18 am

Thanks for the link Edda. These guys really are machines. Jorge's and Dani's times are so close over the 27 laps, a race would have been very interesting....
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Oscar on Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:00 am

drayon wrote:I acquired race simulation data for Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Rossi and tabled it up.


Good stuff, thanks. Looking at Pedrosa's times doesn't give any indication that the Honda uses its tyres any harder than the Yams, so unless Stoner's style is significantly more demanding than Pedrosa's (and that hasn't generally manifested itself to date), I don't think there's any reason to suggest at this stage that the Hondas will be at any disadvantage. Lorenzo can't be wonderfully excited at the prospect of being the meat in the HRC sandwich again this year, though I think Spies is likely to be more consistent trouble to the terrible three than he was last year which is a good prospect.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:10 am

Oscar wrote: To deduce that Stoner may not have determined the likely tyre wear for full race distance because he didn't do a full simulation really rather ignores his past race pattern - he has very rarely indeed been caught out as a result of over-using his tyres too early.


I don't completely disagree but I'm really not sure that Stoner has had much experience managing tire wear since it has been fairly non existent for a number of years.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:14 am

drayon, do you have that in some sort of electronic for such that it could be loaded into excel?
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby eddahenry on Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:19 am

RatsMC wrote:
Oscar wrote: To deduce that Stoner may not have determined the likely tyre wear for full race distance because he didn't do a full simulation really rather ignores his past race pattern - he has very rarely indeed been caught out as a result of over-using his tyres too early.


I don't completely disagree but I'm really not sure that Stoner has had much experience managing tire wear since it has been fairly non existent for a number of years.

Yes but if you look at the times he would have a 5 second advantage after 10 laps
And could slow down buy .5 for another 10 and still hold the advantage and drop a future .5 for the last 6 and still win with some daylight behind him
Now that's kinda scary
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby drayon on Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:47 am

Rats I have a file with the data in a Rich Text Format created with TextEdit on Mac OS X

http://drayond.xsmail.com/JerezTest2012-RaceSimulation.rtf
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:13 am

drayon wrote:Rats I have a file with the data in a Rich Text Format created with TextEdit on Mac OS X

http://drayond.xsmail.com/JerezTest2012-RaceSimulation.rtf



Awesome. Thanks.

I'll return with some analysis.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby tom on Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:26 am

This is all I need to cement my prediction for the year in (ok its the obvious one but to be fair to me I made it at the start of last year as well and in fact I have always thought Casey would dominate on a Honda or Yamaha). Its going to be the Casey and Jorge show again this year. There's going to be little between them on any particular weekend but it will be Casey in front and over the season it will look like complete domination.

Bad luck is the only thing that could stop him dominating for years to come.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Oscar on Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:29 am

RatsMC wrote:I don't completely disagree but I'm really not sure that Stoner has had much experience managing tire wear since it has been fairly non existent for a number of years.


True - but then, who has, in terms of the modern Bridgestones? I think on balance that one has to accept that Gabbarini is entirely capable of taking Stoner's short race simulation and the data from Pedrosa's entire one and making a pretty damn educated guess at what strategy would be needed, and Stoner obviously has faith in him, so between them I don't see Stoner very likely to have any ugly surprises (Bridgestone's questionable QC aside, but that's the case for everybody). If you watch L.S. '11 in particular, it's obvious that Stoner has good race-management perception and only turns the wick up when he needs to, or feels assured of the end result. I really think that if Lorenzo grinds him down in a race, as he is entirely capable of doing, it will be more likely a case of the better rider/bike on the day than 'normal' tyre-management issues.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Zaphod on Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:41 am

Although still very ordinary, The Duc's times are at least Ball-park.........on the outer perimeter of a very large ball park,but ball park none-the-less.


Hope there is 4/10ths worth of foxing/actual race pace left to reveal itself..........but realistically doubtful there is.


Anyway, here's to hoping !
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby WayneG on Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:27 am

The scary part of the times posted above is that Stoner's average lap time (ignoring the 1st lap) over those 10 laps is 1:39.697. That is .25s quicker than Lorenzo's quickest individual lap and .3 quicker than Pedrosa's best individual lap in their respective race simulations. If he was on semi worn tyres as he usually does on race sims and was having chatter problems during the run as he reported, then I think the opposition from all camps have serious reason for concern
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:57 am

Who is saying we won't be seeing the bikes crossed up and the tires smoking this year?
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:01 am

My MotoGP cost-cutting suggestion:
Make the paint slippery!

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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:07 am

Holy crap, my Arm Pump Syndrome is flaring up just looking at this:
Image
(link to original)

Image
(link to original)

EDIT:
Seriously, what the hell are they doing at the corporate site that a link to a picture changes overnight?! :x
Last edited by Rusty Bucket USA on Tue Mar 27, 2012 12:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Hey Dorna... W... T... F...?!
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:15 am

OK, seriously, all jokes aside, if these guys are back in MotoGP, where is McCoy?
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Image
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Oscar on Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:28 am

Rusty Bucket USA wrote:OK, seriously, all jokes aside, if this guy is back in MotoGP, where is McCoy?


Poor bugger has twice been on development projects that haven't turned a wheel in anger, and he's not 'arf bad at riding the ring out of a bike (witness how Triumph moved up in the racing world). I have to ask also, why hasn't anybody thought of Vermuelen for a CRT ride? - he's still in the rarified atmosphere of having won a race in the 800's era outside of the aliens. His pedigree is far better than the majority of the CRT imports. It's the hat, isn't it? Aparthat is a terrible thing.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby Rusty Bucket USA on Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:37 am

Great looking bike (and livery)!
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:06 am

>
 Stoner   
 AVG  39.697 
 top  40.113 
 Bottom  39.285 
 Spread  0.828 


>
 Lorenzo   
 AVG  40.310 
 top  40.794 
 Bottom  39.952 
 Spread  0.842 


>
 Pedrosa   
 AVG  40.369 
 top  40.959 
 Bottom  40.014 
 Spread  0.945 

** I removed two anomalous laps that were nearly 2 seconds off Pedrosa's pace. These are significant but they don't help us understand the consistency of each rider.

>
 Rossi   
 AVG  41.102 
 top  41.608 
 Bottom  40.756 
 Spread  0.852 


The numbers here are a little hard to read because Stoner did so few laps. If you were to take a 10 lap section from Lorenzo's run, you could find a tighter grouping than Stoner. Also if you remove Lorenzo's second to last lap, his spread drops to .6 of a seconds - significantly better than anyone else but still averaging slower than Stoner.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:11 am

I have to go to bed but, I'll post up the Diffs for each rider in the morning. Those tell the same story though: Lorenzo is rarely more than a a couple of tenths off his last lap while Stoner is averaging faster laps. I have a few other numbers that offer some suggestions of what we could expect from each rider in a race but again, Stoner's lack of short run will confuse things because it limits the data set and it also doesn't talk to tire wear. I'll post them anyway but first, some sleep.
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Re: Jerez MotoGP test.

Postby RatsMC on Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:17 am

Oscar wrote:
RatsMC wrote:I don't completely disagree but I'm really not sure that Stoner has had much experience managing tire wear since it has been fairly non existent for a number of years.


True - but then, who has, in terms of the modern Bridgestones?


My point wasn't regarding the relative strengths of each rider in terms of tire wear, it was contesting the idea that we have any information regarding Stoner's ability to manage that tire wear.

I think on balance that one has to accept that Gabbarini is entirely capable of taking Stoner's short race simulation and the data from Pedrosa's entire one and making a pretty damn educated guess at what strategy would be needed, and Stoner obviously has faith in him, so between them I don't see Stoner very likely to have any ugly surprises .


This really looks a lot like the unfounded optimism of a fan, Oscar. You and I both know that managing tire wear isn't about your crew chief, it's about your ability to ride hard on worn tires.
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